Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$.
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
Derrick Henry To Score (-167) to Win 1 Unit
Sep 15, 2019; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Our V.I.P. Members got this pick earlier today, as it was even lower this morning and we all know that if the Titans are going to have success in this game, a big reason will be because Henry is having a monster game. Indy does have a very good run defense, but they also haven’t faced a good back outside of Dalvin Cook who still managed 63 yards on only 14 carries and a TD. I would expect a similar line here with Henry tonight, as the Colts offense isn’t very explosive and we’re expecting a low scoring game tonight. We also know that Henry will get all of the red zone carries and many other betting sites have this line at over -200 already, yet here it is sitting here at -167 on DraftKings. I expect the Titans to lean on Henry heavy here today, as he should touch the ball 20+ times in what should be a favorable game script for him, especially at home.
A.J. Brown Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-134) to Win 1 Unit
Nov 8, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) runs after a catch during the first half against the Chicago Bears at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Our Research Station has Brown projected at 75.5 receiving yards here, which gives us a nice little cushion here tonight. The more I’ve watched Brown this year, the more I like him as one of the Top 5 route runners in the NFL and he’s big and physical, much like D.K. Metcalf but with better feet. He’s a physical specimen that presents matchup problems for any corner that he faces. He’ll see a lot of Xavier Rhodes tonight, who isn’t the same CB that he was a few years ago, and Brown is averaging 71 receiving yards per game so far this year. Brown hasn’t seen less than 8 targets per game this year and he also just torched the Bears defense for 101 receiving yards, and they have been defending receivers much better than the Colts have so far this year. I see Brown solidifying himself as one of the elite WRs in front of millions of people here tonight.
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DeGen Special
This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
Michael Pittman Jr. to Score 2 TDs (+2500) 0.1 Units
Pittman appears that he is finally healthy here, and he gets to face off against Malcolm Butler here tonight, and he has a 5 inch advantage over him. The Colts have also been struggling with their running game, as they have a 3 headed trio in Taylor, Wilkins, and Hines, so I’d rather not try to predict that backfield situation. The spot to attack this Tennessee team is also through the air, and the Colts have been looking Pittman’s way near the goal line as he is a massive attribute in the red zone. I like the payout we get here as well at +2500.
Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, for all my picks you have to join us at Sportsbet Army, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’!
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.