Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! With the season finally coming to a close, we visit Phoenix one more time for the championship race. Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin – may the best finish win it all!
We also say farewell to Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer. Thank you for all the memories!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Phoenix Raceway
Phoenix is another short-ish track, coming in at one mile long. It’s referred to as a flat track, though not quite as flat as some others (but still much flatter than the 1.5-mile intermediates). All in all, it’s most comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire.
One of the most important things to remember is that we do not want the punts here! As some of you may remember, I always refer to the slower cars here getting trapped in what I call “staggered formation hell” – which basically means that those cars that get lapped are going to be stuck there without any realistic chance of getting laps back, because they’ll be down like this: -1, -1 -1, -2, -2, -3, -3, -4, etc. Once you get stuck there, there’s just no coming back (unless we see some Daytona-like crashes).
Likewise, random penalties can quickly put a good driver in that position too (i.e. maybe they get a pit crew member over the wall too quickly, then get a speeding penalty shortly after). It’s really hard to predict that happening, but if you can find any reason to believe a driver may fall victim to this (especially if they’re going to be chalky), it could be used as part of an argument to fade somebody.
It all comes down to this!
This is the championship race, meaning the whichever of the four remaining playoff drivers finishes the best (not necessarily with a win) will claim the championship. Those drivers would be Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin. They’re also starting 1st through 4th, so expect to see them up front all race long, unless they find some issues along the way.
This will also be the final race for Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer before they retire, so look for them to go out in style, with a top-10 finish.
The Field
Dominators
We have 312 laps here, which is nearly 200 fewer than we had last week. Still, it’s a decent amount, up there with some of the longer 1.5-mile races. With that in mind, I would look at using two dominators as a baseline in all formats on both sites, with the option of going up to three or even some solo lineups (though I would probably rank the solo lineups last, I think we see at least two in the winning lineup).
I think the “championship four” are the most likely to dominate here. There are a lot of variables to consider, but overall, I think we can look at them in two different ways – likelihood to lead laps, and potential maximum lead laps.
For the likelihood of leading laps, I would rank them: Elliott, Keselowski, Logano, Hamlin.
For pure upside, or maximum number of laps led, I would rank them: Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Elliott.
However you slice it, I expect these four to take most of the lead laps, and since we have 312 of them to go around, you can mix and match any of these guys. They can all be used as either a primary or secondary dominator, so get creative!
As for everybody else, I would look at them as all secondary dominators. I would rank them: Harvick, Kyle Busch, and then Blaney. I think these three have the best chance of leading laps of the non-championship drivers. After that, it’s everybody else (Truex, Bowman, Kurt, etc). I’m not very big on them leading laps, so if you want exposure to them, perhaps do it on FanDuel.
Mar 19, 2017; Avondale, AZ, USA; A general view of the grandstand during the Camping World 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
Studs
Johnson and Byron look to be the top options here, both starting in the mid 20’s with top-10 upside. In a vacuum, I do like Byron’s chances better, and he’s a little cheaper, making him the slightly better option in my eyes. For cash games I would prefer to just pay down to him, unless we hear Johnson is going to be really chalky. Either way you go, these are two of the strongest options in this price range.
Reddick is probably up there with them, with his top-11 finishes at New Hampshire and Richmond. His race here back in March didn’t go very well, but still put up an average position of 14th even with the accident. I’d probably lean GPP here, but he’s a very strong option, and could easily outscore Johnson/Byron, so you can either pivot or stack any two of these guys.
Jones would be next, though his history here shows him to be a bit unpredictable, so I would save him for GPP. He certainly has top-5 upside though, so don’t forget about him.
After that, it’s the field – Bowyer/Kurt, DiBenedetto, and then Almirola. They all have top-10 upside, but I ranked them in the order in which I think they have the best chance of doing that, or moving up to a top-8 or so. If you don’t play them on DraftKings, be sure to have some exposure to them on FanDuel where they could be more useful.
Value studs
It’s been a shaky few finishes for Buescher here lately, though this is a track that he usually shows up for as a top-15 threat. Starting 31st gives him a solid floor to boot, so I’d be fine taking him in all formats. There aren’t any “direct pivots” to him, though I do like Custer as a lower-owned alternative, especially on FanDuel where his top-10 upside really shines (he finished 9th here in March).
I’ll dip down in price some more and include Kenseth here. He’s certainly been a bit hit-or-miss this season, but this is a track where he’s had a lot of success, including the #6 which is a peg or two below the #42. I’d probably lean GPP here, but if he does put together a solid race, we could see him somewhere near the top-10.
This track hasn’t been great to most of the others here, so it’s hard to really get behind most of them. I would probably rank them as Bell, Austin, then Wallace (who should probably be in the next section, but hey, pricing made it a bit of a stretch).
Honestly, there aren’t many great options here, as this group isn’t particularly strong this week.
Value drivers
Once again, McDowell looks to be the strongest option of the bunch. Fairly cheap, starts deep, and has a higher raw finishing position potential than almost everybody in this price range. He’s a default option for all formats.
It’s pretty tight for the rest of the group, though fortunately they’re all fairly decent options (compared to the value studs that are a bit lackluster after the first couple of options). I don’t mind just going heavier down here with the pivots, and focusing less on the lower end of the previous group of drivers.
Anyway, I’d probably rank them in this order: Ty Dillon, Preece, Newman, Nemechek, Suarez, and then LaJoie.
Side note on Suarez, though the results haven’t always been there this season, this is the sort of track where his driving skill can take him far beyond what his car would normally give him. He has one of the highest ceilings in this price range, the question is just what kind of race can he put together. Be sure you’ve got some GPP exposure to him here!
Finally, of course, is Stenhouse. He has fairly poor history here, and we know how unreliable he is, so I’m not very big on him here. Still, if you want a cheap driver with random top-5 upside, he’s your guy. Just don’t bet the house on him!
Punts
Nope!
Quick recap
Dominators (2 for general purpose on both sites for all formats, can also do 1 or 3 for GPP)
- Primary / secondary dominator – Elliott/Keselowski/Logano/Hamlin
- Secondary dominator – Harvick, Kyle Busch, Blaney, Truex/Bowman/Kurt
- Solo dominator – Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano
Studs
- All sites – Byron/Johnson, Reddick, Jones
- FanDuel options – Bowyer/Kurt, DiBenedetto, Almirola
Value studs
- Primary – Buescher, Custer, Kenseth
- Pivots – Bell, Austin, Wallace
- FanDuel options – Custer, Bell, Austin
Value drivers
- Primary – McDowell, Ty Dillon, Preece
- Pivots – Newman, Nemechek, Suarez, LaJoie
Closing thoughts
I hope you all enjoyed the 2020 season, learned how to build better lineups, and took home a few extra bucks. Winter is fast approaching, meaning it’s almost time for me to hibernate until the 2021 NASCAR/MLB seasons. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!