Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head back to Martinsville this week as we enter the final race of round 3, which will see four more drivers being eliminated from the playoffs. Some of these drivers are in better spots than others, but they all need to show up for this one, so expect to see some fireworks before this one is over.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Martinsville Speedway
A race at Martinsville means we’re back to the short tracks, this one in the 1/2 mile variety. Compared to Bristol, this one is flatter and a little slower, so while they are similar in some aspects, they aren’t identical by any means. I’m more inclined to cross-reference to New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix, with Bristol as sort of a secondary option. Remember that all of these tracks are similar, not identical, as Martinsville is a unique track. More recent track history is generally a stronger indicator of what to expect here.
Elimination race #3
With Kyle Busch winning last weekend, that leaves three spots open to get to the championship race next weekend. Since we can only have one winner here, that means two drivers will get in via points. Aside from Kurt (who will need to win to get in), the other six drivers (not counting Logano) all have a shot to get through without winning, depending on how they all do.
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As we saw at Texas, disaster can strike anybody, including those at the top. That race wound up closing the gaps between these drivers, so we could easily see a scenario where one or two points will decide who races for a championship and who doesn’t.
The Field
Dominators
It’s a short track, so you know what that means…lots of laps to go around! 500 to be exact, which puts the importance of having the right dominators at its highest that we experience all season. For general purposes, I’d use two dominators in all formats on both sites. For GPP, both solo and triple dominator lineups are in play, as this race could realistically see any of these scenarios play out.
Of all the tracks on the circuit, this one has one of the best chances of having one driver lead 80% or more of the laps. On the other hand, with so many drivers needing points (and who will be just trying to win), we could see the lead laps split between them. Basically, in GPP, favor two dominators for most lineups, but try to get equal shares of the solo and triple dominator lineups.
As for who, I think our two best candidates will be starting up front; Keselowski and Truex. Both have been very strong here in recent years, with multiple strong dominator performances, including a 446 (Keselowski) and 464 (Truex) lead lap performance. Both have two wins here as well.
Since he has the pole, I’d probably start with Keselowski for basic cash games, unless we get word that Truex is going to be the chalk (in which case we can use him instead). For ladders, either is a fine choice. For GPP, you can choose between them, or you can even stack them, as it’s not hard to picture a race where they both lead 200+ laps and finish in the top-3 together.
After that we have several strong options to pivot with; Hamlin, Harvick, and Logano are my first choices. The second group would be Elliott, Kyle Busch, and then Blaney. A third (or supplemental) group, could be Kurt, Bowyer, or Bowman. I like all of these drivers in roughly the order I listed them. I don’t mind using Kyle Busch in cash games to go with either Keselowski or Truex, but keep the others in GPP.
Studs
The studs are a bit interesting this week. At first glance they look to be in pretty good spots (Johnson, Jones, Bowyer, and Almirola), but as you dig in, things start to get a little questionable. While they all have cars capable of a top-10, they haven’t looked very consistent these last few years for various reasons. All in all, I would probably rank them as Johnson, Bowyer, Almirola, and then Jones.
Value studs
Due to how the pricing worked out this week, we have a boat load of drivers in the value stud/value categories. Also, because of how much different they tend to perform at short tracks (for better or worse), a lot of names are flipped around this week.
The clear winner here, on paper at least, is Wallace. In this price range he’s one of the best at these tracks, he’ll start 32nd, and he’s not priced up on either site. He offers legitimate top-15 upside, perhaps even higher if a few things go his way. Due to starting position and price, I would put Buescher just behind him. I like these guys for all formats, and would probably start cash game lineups with at least Wallace.
After that, Byron offers top-10 (or better) upside, though he’s not quite as cheap and starts 13th. He makes a solid pivot or stacking option for GPP. DiBenedetto is the same play, just a little cheaper. I would keep him in GPP, too. As far as raw finishing position upside goes, these two have the best in this group (which makes them fantastic FanDuel options).
Newman has been hard to get a feel for, but this is one of those places where I feel pretty good about him, so I would put him next in line. His finishing position upside isn’t as high as the others, but starting 21st gives him some room to work with. I think he would be better used on DraftKings, but certainly have exposure to him on both sites. He rounds out the top options in this price range.
Oct 28, 2018; Martinsville, VA, USA; An overall view of the track during the First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Value drivers
Kenseth once again starts nice and deep, but once again I am cautious about using him. This was a good track for him in the #20, but he can’t seem to break the mid 20’s in the #42, and with the season winding down, I don’t see him pushing hard enough to get into the top-20. 100% do not play him over Wallace in cash games! He’s a fine GPP option, I’m just not in love with him.
Paying down from there seems to be the way to go – McDowell, LaJoie, and Preece are solid options that are easy to afford. I like them in roughly that order, in terms of raw upside. I don’t mind using them in cash games, but be sure you take Wallace first.
It’s kind of a mixed bag from here on out, but I’ll go with Austin next. He’s been anything but consistent here, but he does at least offer the top-10 upside that we want. It’s just hard knowing if he’ll finish there or finish somewhere in the 20’s or 30’s. I don’t see him having very much ownership though, and he has juuust enough upside to sneak into the winning lineup, making him a decent GPP pivot option.
Reddick finished 16th here back in June, which is a good start, but it’s hard to know how high his ceiling is. It certainly seems to be better than the rest of the options here, so like Austin, be sure to get some exposure here in case he goes off.
Bell and Custer are practically the same play this week…again. This time though, they’re not looking too great, so if you were to just fade them, you probably wouldn’t be missing out on much. Neither looked very good here in June, and given their “profile” I don’t really see them improving a whole lot. Certainly not enough to where I’d want to take them over the other options. Anyway, GPP only for these two.
Ty Dillon and Nemechek are roughly the same play; cheap, start in the mid 20’s, but very close to their probable ceiling. Again, I don’t mind just looking elsewhere, but if you want some exposure to them, feel free.
And Stenhouse, well…you know. Starting 18th doesn’t give him as much upside as we’ve seen at other races, but if you want to sprinkle him around for the chaos factor, be my guest. He has at least finished 10th here a couple of times, but it’s been a few years. GPP only!
Punts
As usual, it’s hard to get behind the punts, especially here where they can get lapped so quickly. I’d prefer to just pay up again this week, unless you think we see enough chaos to where they’ll move into the 20’s somewhere. They’ll absolutely need the help to get there.
Quick recap
Dominators (2 for general purpose on both sites for all formats, can also do 1 or 3 for GPP)
- Primary dominator – Keselowski, Truex
- Secondary dominators – Truex, Hamlin/Harvick/Logano
- Secondary pivots – Elliott/Kyle Busch/Blaney, Bowyer, Kurt/Bowman
- Solo dominators – Keselowski, Truex, Hamlin/Logano
Studs
- Johnson, Bowyer, Almirola, Jones
Value studs
- Primary – Wallace, Buescher
- Pivots – Byron/DiBenedetto, Newman
- FanDuel options – Byron/DiBenedetto
Value drivers
- Primary – McDowell/Preece/LaJoie, Kenseth
- Pivots – Austin/Reddick, Bell/Custer, Ty/Nemechek, Stenhouse
Closing thoughts
I think the biggest key this week is navigating the less expensive drivers, basically skipping over a large portion of them (basically the more expensive value drivers this week, who would normally be value studs) and going with the cheaper options. That means there’s a chance the winning lineup leaves a bit more salary on the table than most weeks, so if you find yourself leaving a little more than you’re used to, don’t sweat it. That just means you’ll be unique, which is never a bad thing in GPP, right? Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!