It is ya boy @LowOwnedWR reporting on well, WRs. With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Jerry Jeudy: Being the #1 target in an offense facing the bottom 5 Falcons passing D has been a recipe for success all year. With a .36 RACR and an aDOT over 13 he has plenty of room to improve on the volume he has been getting so far. Seeing over 25% of the air yards and almost 20% of the targets facing a bottom 5 pass defense makes him well worth a shot at only $5700 on FD this week.
Adam Theilen: Coming in at the WR7 based on DFSArmy projections and is projecting for less than 10% ownership in a good matchup against a shaky Detroit Lions team. Even with the emergence of Justin Jefferson, Theilen has still seen over 40% of the team’s air yards and almost 30% of the targets. With only a .53 RACR and seeing over 35% of the red zone targets he is more than capable of 10 catches for over 100 yards and a TD or two. He in my mind is an 8k WR so do not let that $7700 price tag scare you off of him.
Mike Williams: With Keenan Allen chalk coming in hot and heavy this week, I would like to look at the WR2 in that offense here. Mike Williams is seeing an aDOT of over 17 and only has a .45 RACR, once those deep targets start connecting at a higher rate people are going to realize in this pass-heavy Chargers O that Williams ceiling is actually much better than it appears. Being projected at .5 TDs this week which is equivalent to WRs like Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Will Fuller, that is really good company for a $6200 WR.
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Marquise Brown: I want to quit him but I just cannot, the potential of this offense just will not get out of my head. Hollywood voiced his displeasure with how he is being deployed last week and I think (hope?) that that means this is the beginning of him being targeted other places than 15+ yards down the field. He is seeing just shy of 40% of the air yards and just under 25% of the team’s targets and is posting a .41 RACR, eventually, that volume is going to turn into real fantasy production.
Oct 25, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans inside linebacker Jayon Brown (55) breaks up the pass thrown to Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (19) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
JuJu Smith-Schuster: JuJu is only rocking a .55 RACR despite his aDOT being a measly 5.8. We all know JuJu is a better football player than that and I am looking for something to give here in a matchup against a Dallas team that is honestly bottom 5 in the league in every aspect with their injuries and terrible defense. I know a heavy favorite bodes better for the RB but we just saw Mahomes post a 36 point game despite being favored by 20 and holding a lead the entire game. While the concerns over JuJu is fair, you are getting him at a cheap price and sub 8% ownership. He is projecting just slightly worse than Calvin Ridley and Allen Robinson this week who are true WR1s.
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