With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Tyreek Hill: Despite 3 straight games with over 20 fantasy points Tyreek is still capable of doing even more with this type of volume. Out of WRs with over 45 targets the last 5 weeks Hill is the only one to post below a .7 RACR besides Tyler Lockett, but besides those two every other WR has posted a .9 RACR or higher. He is projected the 3rd most FD points for WRs this week and isn’t even projecting for top 10 ownership at the position.
DeVante Parker: Besides the Rams game that saw the Dolphins needing no help from the offense, he has seen 7 or more targets in each game the last 5 weeks. He is in an amazing spot against the Jets and is cheap at $6500. I am of course not a fan of his 15%+ ownership projection but with Preston Williams on IR and their two best RBs looking like they’ll be out, it is hard to see him not getting 10 or more targets this week.
Denzel Mims: Mims over the last 5 weeks is top 8 in WOPR (team % of targets + team % of air yards) and has been drawing a crazy amount of DPIs on his targets. Those DPIs are heavily responsible for his mediocre .47 RACR over that time frame, for reference out of the WRs who are top 10 in WOPR he is the only one with below a .6 RACR. A matchup against the Dolphins is obviously not the most ideal but no matchup for the Jets seems ideal at this point, at least the game script is always in his favor. He has a nice cheap price of $5600 for that type of volume and is projecting for sub 1% ownership.
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Nelson Agholor: After 3 straight weeks of facing above average pass defenses, Agholor draws the lowly Falcons secondary this week. Since Week 7, Nelson leads the Raiders WR group in WOPR by almost double the rating than the next guy. Posting only a .65 RACR in this time frame and seeing an aDOT of 14.7, he has the potential to break big plays and capitalize off of being the WR1 in Vegas.
Dec 8, 2019; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) attempts to catch the ball during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Jakobi Meyers: Only Micheal Thomas and Devante Adams have a higher WOPR than Meyers since Week 6. While Meyers has been performing well with his volume posting a .87 RACR during that time frame, he was uber cash game chalk last week and posted a dud, any time a player is still in a good spot coming off a dud week and sees a huge drop in ownership, they are great GPP plays. The Patriots have been bet up almost a point and a half since lines opened and the game is just shy of a 50 point total. The game script looks good for the Patriots WRs and Meyers is really the only one worth a damn. $5800 and only 7% ownership is such a great price to pay for the upside he brings.
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