With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Sep 27, 2020; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Robert Woods (17) reacts to his catch and run for a first down against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter at Bills Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
Robert Woods: Throughout the first 5 weeks he was only seeing an aDOT of 4.1 and 16% of the air yards with a 2.4 RACR, picture Deebo Samuel type of usage with that, higher floor in PPR but the ceiling would be lacking. In the last 5 weeks, he is now seeing an 11.4 aDOT while seeing 27% of the team’s air yards and a .64 RACR. With the increase in big play potential and a matchup against the Seahawks, I think Robert Woods is a fine play this week, especially at projecting just over 10% on a slate very much lacking in good plays.
Robby Anderson: With 60 catches this year and being the WR6 overall at the moment and having a .96 RACR, being “due” does not necessarily sound correct at first glance with Anderson. Despite all of that, Anderson has only registered 1 TD this year and it dates all the way back to Week 1, he is priced down on FD to 6400 when he sees the usage of a 7000+ WR, the matchup is not amazing but this man has been ready to get into the endzone for a while.
Jarvis Landry: With Odell going down Landry has now been seeing 26% of the team’s targets which amounts to 6.0 per game the last 5 weeks. He has a .82 RACR the last 5 weeks which is being propped up by some YAC. He has the ability to still capitalize and use his air yards with his YAC to put together a top 10 WR performance against a Texans team that is bottom 8 in the league in pass defense. To boot he is cheap at $6000 and is only projecting 7% ownership.
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Henry Ruggs: Has seen an aDOT of over 20(!) on this season and his targets have been trending in the right direction the last 5 weeks. His RACR on the season is a measly .51, good for bottom 5 on the slate. He is a big-play type of guy so he is limited to GPPs but the Raiders are implied 27.5 points which is top 6 on a slate not drowning in offense.
Mike Evans: The Buccaneers are a top 5 teams in implied total coming into this week and Mike Evans is currently sitting at an ownership of less than 2%. $7300 is a good price for a WR of his caliber and with Godwin playing with virtually one hand Evans should be seeing better targets with teams now having to worry about Antonio Brown. On the season is still seeing over 20% of the air yards but the targets have not been sexy. An 11.4 aDOT and .75 RACR can be very much improved for him this week.
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