What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

Kyler Murray ($8600): He is currently projecting as the 8th best QB in DFSArmy’s projections and despite not even being top 5 in projections is looking to be the number one owned QB on the slate. With his starting RB also being chalk and them being negatively correlated, something is going to have to give, and I highly prefer Edmonds this week. PASS

Justin Herbert ($7800): Hebert is only being Kyler in terms of QB volume and the Chargers run game continues to be mediocre at best so that is a trend I expect to continue with him. There is no other QB in below $8000 on FD that looks nearly as good as him this week and the Chargers stack with Raider run backs is not something that will break the bank with your salary money. SMASH

Josh Allen ($8200): Josh Allen had an amazing start to the season and now has logged 4 consecutive below-average fantasy performances. While the Seahawks pass D has been awful they finally put together an okay showing against the 49ers due to all the pressure they decided to send instead of giving their CBs time to get toasted. If you planning to MME this week I would not mind Allen in game stacks but outside of that I like everything about Herbert more than Allen and Herbert is cheaper. PASS

 

RBs:

Chase Edmonds ($6700): With a real lack of RB plays this week it is very hard not to love Chase Edmonds at his price.  He is currently number 2 in opportunity ranking that I do based off of DFSArmy projection’s behind only Dalvin Cook. If you are playing any sort of cash game this man is a lock. SMASH

Dalvin Cook ($9300): Coming off an amazing performance last week he is currently the best projected RB at DFSArmy. He has scored a TD in every game he has been in so far this year and is the only non QB this week who projects for at least 1 TD. With Stafford being out of practice all week due to COVID protocols I find it hard to see the Lions taking control of this game which bodes especially well for Cook. SMASH 

Josh Jacobs ($7700): People are falling in love with him after he had over 30 touches last week, but let us not forget that the game had terrible weather and forced both teams to run more, so let us not pretend like Jacobs is going to be seeing over 25 touches a game every game. For only $500 more I would much rather play Connor than him because if the Chargers can hold a lead, Jacobs usage with not be there like it needs to be. PASS

 

WRs:

Keenan Allen ($7500): Projected 7.2 catches on the slate which is the most out of any pass catcher this week and projects for the 2nd most fantasy points of any WR despite being the 7th highest priced. Chalk WR are a fickle mistress so playing him with Herbert in a stack is a must to me since if I am playing him naked I am basically saying the Chargers are not going to smash and then what would be the point of even playing him. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS

Tyler Lockett ($7400): As you can tell by my name, I do not like chalk WRs. It is the highest variance position in fantasy football and there are over 20 guys a week who are actually in play, so it is hard to justify picking the highest owned ones, but sadly Lockett is checking all the boxes this week. With the Seahawks WRs zig-zagging and going off different weeks, Metcalf was last week and it looks to be a Lockett week based on that, but the one that is getting me the most is that Tre White should be shadowing Metcalf like Patrick Peterson did when he shut him down, leaving the middle of the field wide open for Lockett and Wilson to gash them through. Also, his price of $7400 on this MVP QB led offense is just laughable. SMASH

Julio Jones ($8200): This one is pretty cut and dry to me. Julio requires you to break the bank here and he should be seeing blanked coverage if Ridley misses. Drew Lock is looking like he is not good so I expect this game is going to be hard-pressed to see a score line along the lines of 34-31. I am not really a fan of any other weapons in this game other than Jeudy so any stacking options seem bleak. I am not looking to roster an $8200 uber chalk WR on an offense who I feel does not have nearly the potential this week as teams like the Chargers or Texans. PASS

 

TEs:

Darren Waller ($6400): One of the players I am not even remotely thinking about this week. At $6400 you are basically getting a Mid WR2 in your TE when you are lucky to get a low-end WR2 at TE unless you are paying almost $7000 or more. The game environment looks to be good and Waller is seeing almost 20% of the teams’ air yards and just over 27% of the teams’ targets. SMASH

Travis Kelce ($8000): This is not the previous two weeks with a plethora of value at RB to make paying up at other positions easier. Getting an $8000 TE into your build this week is going to present a problem for the rest of your line up and you will see that very fast, there are good options this week I am not paying up for the only TE above $7000 on the slate. PASS

Hunter Henry ($5600): I am going to keep this one simple, if you are playing Herbert I do not mind Henry even with his ownership, but if you are not building those stacks I would take naked Waller and Hockenson’s volume uptick with no Golladay over him in a moments notice. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS.

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter as I will usually always respond. 

 

 

 

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