FanDuel Chalk: Smash or Pass NFL Week 12

What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

Josh Allen ($8600): Allen is far and away the heaviest chalk QB on the slate. Coming in at 23% ownership projection which more than doubles Mahomes who is the 2nd highest owned. Of course I think Allen is a solid play this week but he with the Bills projecting 28.5 points there are a good bit of teams who project similarly so I think his ownership is too high when taking those other teams into account. CASH SMASH, GPP PASS

Patrick Mahomes ($9000): While Tampa has hit a rough patch recently this is not really a spot where I feel like Mahomes is worthy of chalk. The Chiefs always have the ability to score over 30 as they are the best team in the league I am not recommending to fade him, but you need to find a cheap stack to go along with the Chiefs onslaught as I am almost positive that naked Mahomes or even just a mini stack with him is not going to get it done. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS

Derek Carr ($7100): Carr has stepped up his game this year and has hit 3x value at this price in half of his games this year. A matchup against Atlanta is a great spot for him and the Raiders defense is terrible so I am thinking Carr isn’t just going to be able to get a lead and hand it off to Jacobs the whole game. His stacking options are very cheap and the upside is more than there. SMASH

 

RBs:

James Robinson ($7400): His volume is amazing, his usage is locked in and if it was not for playing on one of the worst offensive teams in the league, he would easily be an $8500 player. Mike Glennon is awful and I am not expecting good things from the Jags this week. If Robinson was less than 10% I for sure could get on board with smashing him into LUs, but I am not spending that much ownership on a team that has Mike Glennon at the helm. PASS

Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) carries the ball past Tampa Bay Buccaneers inside linebacker Lavonte David (54) during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Jacobs ($8000): I am all over the Raiders this week and playing him and Carr to hopefully get access to every TD they score this week is a solid move to me and it is inexpensive as I have mentioned before. $8000 is a great price to pay for a real bell cow in a great matchup. SMASH

Dalvin Cook ($11000): Last week you had Taysom Hill to allow you to get to Dalvin pretty easily and the RB plays were not plentiful. This week there are a good amount of RB plays (Nick Chubb at 5% against the Jags is mouth watering to me) and while you can play Brian Hill to get to Dalvin, I am not looking to spend $11000 on a player who’s volume and upside is not light years above players at the position who are $3000 less. PASS

 

WRs:

Stefon Diggs ($7900): Good game total, still too cheap, but as I have stated in basically every article, your chalk WR should ALWAYS be linked to a stack, it is a very volatile position and players who are $2000 less than him have the ability to outscore him every week because of that volatility. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS

Cole Beasley ($5400): His upside for his price is great and even if he only posts a 5/50/0 he still almost hits value, in cash games this week I would have Beasley locked and loaded in every build as Allen has shown a commitment to him all season, if not for FanDuel’s algorithm’s heavy stance on historical data, he would easily be a $6000+ WR. SMASH

Keenan Allen ($8200): Keenan Allen right now feels like last years Michael Thomas, he is a lock for over 10 targets a week and that is volume that you do not easily come by. But like Diggs, an expensive chalk WR needs to be partnered with a stack on FanDuel as the TD reliance is huge. I do like the Chargers side of the stack as Herbert is projecting too low in ownership for his upside. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS

 

TEs:

Travis Kelce ($8000): Expensive TE, especially on FD, just never really seems to be the move. It is a low ceiling position and if you play the expensive guys and they do not hit 2x your LU is basically dead as someone played a way cheaper TE with the same production and they were able to pay up elsewhere and you get passed up. If the Chiefs score 30 this week it is hard to see Kelce not being involved in that so I can get on him if you are playing Mahomes in that line up. NAKED PASS, GAME STACK SMASH

Darren Waller ($7100): Literally in the exact same situation as Kelce, if you are playing Carr by all means feel free to roster him, but if not I would not touch it. NAKED PASS, GAME STACK SMASH

Hunter Henry ($5900): I like Henry as an option in a high total game and two other TEs eating a majority of the ownership. The Bills are a bottom 3 team against TEs and Herbert has been looking his way more recently as he has seen 6 or more targets in each of his last 3 games. SMASH

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

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