FanDuel Chalk: Smash or Pass NFL Week 11

What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

Deshaun Watson ($7700): I know that this is not the Patriots of old but they have held opponents to less than 20 points in over half of their games this season. Houston also has no running game which is going to make it easier for Bill B to scheme up ways to slow down Watson and the passing game. The Pats are also 13th in average time of possession per game this season with Houston being better than only the Jets, Watson cannot score points against the Patriots if he does not have the ball. PASS

Cam Newton ($7600):  Houston has a horrible run defense and Cam is averaging 10 carries a game the last 3 weeks. While the passing stats have not been there for Newton, the Texans rank bottom 10 in points allowed to WRs over the last 5 weeks so the potential is there. Cam’s price only makes him more attractive this week. SMASH

Justin Herbert ($8500): Fellow rookie Joe Burrow is the only QB on the slate to average more pass attempts a game over the last 5 weeks than Herbert. A pass-heavy offense going up against the Jets have performed well this year (see Cheifs, Cardinals, and Bills). Everything looks to be boding well for Herbert to have a good performance this week. SMASH

 

RBs:

Dalvin Cook ($10500): $10500 is normally enough to steer people off of a player, but not with Dalvin this week who is projected to see over 50% ownership. A player at that price should be considered fadable off of that alone, let alone him somehow being chalk at it. PASS

Duke Johnson ($6000): The Texans have no run game and that does not change with David Johnson out. I am unsure how Johnson is getting so much love since David Johnson continually underperformed at around the same price when he was active. I would much rather play Ballage or Giovani Bernard over him in that price range. PASS

Mike Davis ($7400): So let us get this straight. He underperforms as uber value chalk last week. Priced up $2000 more, this week he is missing his starting QB and we are another week into needing to accept Curtis Samuel is very capable of stealing high-value carries from him but Davis remains chalk despite all of this. PASS

 

WRs:

Robby Anderson ($6300): This one is a little weird to me considering that they are missing their starting QB and this passing attack wasn’t one for top tier performances anyways. WRs should be used to bolster up your correlation to your QB and other WRs, and I do not see you using any players this week that fit that bill with Anderson. PASS

Terry McLaurin ($7300): McLaurin checks a lot of boxes this week, he is underpriced, in a good matchup, and is maintaining the volume of an elite WR. The problem is unless you play Alex Smith you are playing him naked and I am not a fan of uber chalk naked WRs. Thankfully the Bengals are a solid GPP stack this week so you can run McLaurin back in those. Eventually, this FD pricing algorithm is going to catch up with McLaurins volume and he will remain a $7800+ WR after that. NAKED PASS, GAME STACK SMASH

Keenan Allen ($8000): Allen is in the same boat McLaurin is besides the fact he is priced more reasonably. Also by the fact that his stacking options are really limited to just his QB as you are presumably (and correctly) not looking to add Jets to your line ups this Sunday, I am perfectly okay with him in a stack with Herbert this week as we saw the Cheifs stack with no Jets hit just a few weeks ago. However him naked is a no-go as I have mentioned if you are going to play a chalk WR you should correlate him to low owned stack rather than just eat the chalk and move on. NAKED PASS, GAME STACK SMASH

 

TEs:

Nov 28, 2019; Atlanta, GA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) eats a turkey leg after a victory against the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving Day at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Taysom Hill ($4500): I am not going to bother with the other TEs as every single one of them is projecting for low ownership this week with Hill stealing the show. As you probably may have heard by now he may be the starting QB for the Saints and you get to play him for $4500 in the TE spot. TE is such a brutal landscape that the TE2 on the week can score under 12 points, so worrying about his floor if he does not get passing reps like we think really is not a big deal. Never again in DFS (I hope) are you going to get a chance to play a starting QB in your TE slot at basically minimum salary. There is really nothing to think about here for me unless we hear news indicating that Hill will not be getting QB reps. SMASH

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

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