Sorry I am late folks, but I am here now so lets get right into it. Listen…if you are looking for sure things, I would take the week off. While there is a few metrics we can use to try and cap this race, there are just too many unknowns to speak with confidence – most importantly, and impending hurricane. Strategy wise, I suspect place differential will be at a premium. So with further ado, lets take a look at some plays I think could be valuable.
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Top Plays
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson starts 30th, so this is obviously an elite place differential play. Moreover, Johnson drove through the field multiple times on route to a 4th place run at the Daytona roval, and was a corner from winning this race in 2018. Jimmie Johnson has Rolex experience and has a great appreciation of open wheel racing, so he should be okay if it rains. This is an elite play. Johnson can win this race.
Chase Elliott – There is a good chance Elliott dominates this race. He has morphed into one of the best road course drivers in the field, and him and Truex have won six of the last seven non-roval road course races. He starts P2 behind Hamlin and should get around him fairly early. The one big question mark is how Elliott will react to the rain. He is a gifted wheelman though and should be able to keep it close to the front. He is the one of few top ten starters I feel comfortable playing.
Michael McDowell – McDowell is a very good road course driver who will thrive if the track gets wet. He has open wheel and Grand-Am experience and could legitamtley compete for a win if conditions are super bad. Even if the rain isn’t much of a factor, McDowell is a top 20 staple on road courses and should score well no matter what.
Martin Truex Jr- Truex has finished top 3 in six of the last seven non-roval road courses, and should have won here in 2018. He is a master at right turns and should be a factor, rain or no rain, all day today. He starts 7th so we need him to lead some laps, which he usually does on road courses.
Fades
Given the potential chaos of this race, and the possiblity of a wet race track, I think all drivers are in play. That said – all the usual backmarkers should be played with caution. Brennan Poole and Quin Houff are very volatile.
Value Plays
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – RSJ doesnt get enough credit for how solid he is on road courses. He may make some mistakes at times, but he makes up for them with his aggressive driving. He starts 38th, so the floor is very high. I think RSJ is an elite play and should compete for a top 15.
Matt Kenseth – Yeah I know. This is a weird risky play. I get it. But you know who all the chalky plays are, so let me give a case for Matt – who you can get some real cheap leverage on. At one point, Matt was considered a solid high throttle road course drivers in the field, and while he has no starts on the roval – he will THRIVE if this race gets sloppy. His rain experience is limited, but he is an extremely high IQ race car driver who will make adjustments and grind out a top ten in wet conditions. This is an insanely risky play, but it is the best off the chalk option I can find.
Christopher Bell – Just a pure chalk place differential play. Bell isn’t a standout on road courses by any means, but he is a good enough driver to improve on a 35th place starting spot.
James Davison- HUGE RISK WITH JD. This is a Rick Ware car, after all, and the equipment is as sketchy as can be. That said, Davison is probably the most talented pure road course racer in the field, and should this race turn wet, he will have a real shot at a top 20 or even a top 15 . A top 30 is much more likely, but given the lack of value on this slate – he gives you lots of wiggle room. He finished 30th at the Daytona road course, but I think his car will be at less of a disadvantage on this smaller course. Pray for a rain if you play him.
Other Notables
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.