Just three races left in the 2019 season, and the DFSArmy is poised to finish strong. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Jul 19, 2020; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) makes a pit stop during the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find an instance of Harvick losing the second Texas race of the year, and he is posed to keep that record alive. Harvick has far anyway the best Texas history in the field, and he has been among the elite on 1.5 mile tracks for the last couple years. Here, he starts P1 and should lead a ton of laps over the course of the day. He is rightfully the race favorite and stands to make it a long day for the rest of the field.
Erik Jones – Contact with eventual race winner Joey Logano ruined Jones’ day last week at Kansas, but before that he was a real threat to win that race. Jones has put together a ton of good runs at the end of this year, and Texas is a track where he excels. He starts 17th, so he is a pretty safe play considering a top 5 is very possible.
Kyle Busch –KB has had a top five car at the last handful of 1.5 milers, and it seems like this team has caught up a little, at least with their 1.5 mile program. KB starts 9th, and should be able to compete for a top 3 so long as they stay out of trouble. Easier said than done in 2020, but Texas represents KBs best chance to snag a 2020 win, and it should be all hands on deck to get the job sone.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been second best to Harvick on 1.5 mile tracks, and Texas is probably his best 1.5 track, so he should excel here. He starts 10th, which isn’t great – but with top 3 upside plus a ton of fast – Blaney is a fairly safe play to target some leverage.
Fades
Garrett Smithley
Brennan Poole
JJ Yeley
Quin Houff
Chad Finchum
Joey Gase
Josh Bilicki
Timmy Hill
Reed Sorenson
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – Newman rolls of 25th, and while Newman has struggled in the latter part of 2020, Texas should be a return to form. Newman has four top 20s in a row at Texas, and should be able to run in the top 20, even if their cars are off.
Ty Dillon – Essentially a pure place differential play, but a fairly safe one. Save for a small blunder earlier in 2020, Ty Dillon has finished top 24 in all of his Texas runs. He is live for a top 20 here and his floor is pretty high. Probably the chalkiest “value” play.
Matt Kenseth – Place differential play. I am tired of making excuses for Kenseth. He does not run good with this package, but SURELY he can improve on this 30th place starting spot.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – RSJ just doesn’t have the equipment to be a consistent threat at 1.5 mile tracks, but Texas usually gives him a chance to show how talented he is. So long as the highline becomes viable, and it should be towards the end of the race, RSJ should be able to push into the top 20 and compete for a top 15.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.