Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a brand new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$. First, we’ll take a look at what happened last week with my these picks, follow me fellow DeGens!
We were on a slightly bad luck streak as well, as we were 1 DeSean Jackson yard away from cashing, 1 Mecole Hardman reception from cashing, and who can forget Daniel Jones tripping over his own feet at the 10 yard line to cost us a +425 bet as well.
Week 7: 9-4 +6.5 units
Total for Year: 27-22 +6.5 units
Before I dig into this, let’s take a look at where I start my research every week, in our Research Station, which has all our stats, projections, and literally any thing else you need to not only dominate Daily Fantasy Sports, but is a very useful tool for betting as well! Also, sign up for access to our brand new Research Lab as well, which kicks things up an extra notch!
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
David Montgomery Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-124) to Win 1 Unit
There’s no way around it, this game is probably going to be pretty boring as we have the 2nd ranked defense taking on the 12th ranked defense in overall DVOA. David Montgomery has shown that he really isn’t very good overall, but with Tarik Cohen out for the year he’s been forced to get more involved in the passing game and he’s eclipsed this mark in each game since Cohen went down. Over the last 3 games he’s had 19 targets and 14 receptions and he’s averaging 33 receiving yards per game over their last 3 games, and with how bad the Bears have been at running the ball effectively and with Ramsey shadowing Allen Robinson, I can see a few more dump-offs in store for Montgomery tonight as I don’t see the Bears getting an effective running game going here tonight against this Rams D-Line.
Cooper Kupp Over 4.5 Receptions (-155) to Win 1 Unit
This one just seems a bit too easy here, as Kupp draws the best matchup of any Rams wide receiver on the night. He’ll see a lot of Buster Skrine as Kupp takes most of his snaps in the slot and as we remember from last year, Skrine got abused game in and game out when he played for the Jets last year. Our Research Station has Kupp projected for 5.5 receptions on the night, and with how good the Bears defense has been against the run I see the Rams having to throw the ball more here and Kupp is overdue for a big game. Kupp also draws a green light in our WR vs. CB Matchup Chart and it even shows us that he has a 5 inch size advantage over Skrine as well. Kupp is also coming off his worst game of the year, in which he only had 3 receptions on 9 targets for 11 yards, however, he had at least 5 receptions in each of their previous 4 games. Love this prop here tonight.
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This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
Josh Reynolds to Score and Rams to Win (+600) 0.1 Units
I think that this will be a low scoring game, and I like this prop the best given the odds. Higbee has been dealing with a nagging injury, which boosts Reynolds as he already has a few red zone targets on the year, including scoring a TD last week. He also has a 3 inch height advantage over Jaylon Johnson who he will see the most this week. I also see the Rams pulling this game off here tonight after their dud against San Francisco last week.
Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, for all my picks you have to join us at Sportsbet Army, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.