Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a brand new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$. First, we’ll take a look at what happened last week with my these picks, follow me fellow DeGens!
Week 6:
Last week was a blood bath, I figured some regression was coming, but there is nowhere to go but up after that. Honestly, all it did was make me angry and I’m coming back with a vengeance this week and we got back on track on Thursday, going 2-1, and we were 1 DeSean Jackson yard from going 3-0 as he got injured early in the 4th quarter, not to mention the long shot bet of Daniel Jones to score at +425 lost when Jones broke and 80 yard run only to stumble and trip his own feet at the 10 yard line… hopefully this is a sign that our luck is changing for this week.
The 1 p.m. games are still ongoing, but we are looking pretty good so far (crosses fingers and knocks on wood). One VIP prop (a few have already hit, McLaurin to score, McLaurin OV 78.5 receiving yards, James Conner OV 63.5 rushing yards, and we’re one reception away from Diggs cashing).
Week 7: 5-1 +4.5 units
Total for Year: 22-19 +3.5 units
Before I dig into this, let’s take a look at where I start my research every week, in our Research Station, which has all our stats, projections, and literally any thing else you need to not only dominate Daily Fantasy Sports, but is a very useful tool for betting as well! Also, sign up for access to our brand new Research Lab as well, which kicks things up an extra notch!
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
Tom Brady Over 1.5 TD Passes (-164) to Win 1 Unit
Sep 13, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws against the New Orleans Saints during the second quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
This prop just seems way too low here, as Brady has so many receiving weapons on this Bucs team and this Vegas defense is really really bad both against the pass and the run. They rank 29th in overall team DVOA and 26th DVOA against the pass. We also just saw this Bucs team roll over a likely division winner in Green Bay so we know that they are really starting to click offensively, and while they won’t have Antonio Brown this game Brady still has Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and RoJo at his disposal. Our Research Station has him projected for 2 passing TD’s here today as well and I simply don’t see a way that the Bucs don’t score at least 3-4 touchdowns in this game. While this Vegas defense has been very bad, their offense has kept them in games, so I could still see them challenging the Bucs here and cause the Bucs to keep their foot on the gas pedal. Brady also has multiple TD passes in 4 of 6 games this season, including 8 over the past 3 weeks. This is one of those props that we can have in the bag by half-time.
Ronald Jones Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-112) to Win 1 Unit
Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones (27) stiff arms Carolina Panthers strong safety Juston Burris (31) to score a touchdown during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
If we thought Brady’s matchup was good, RoJo’s is even better. The Raiders are ranked 31st in overall team DVOA against the run, and he comes into this game white hot going for 111, 106, and 113 rushing yards in each of their last 3 games and we get a prop here where that number is basically cut in half against the 2nd worst run defense in the league. I’m really not worried about Fournette being active here, as he still isn’t fully healthy and I really only seeing him stealing a few goal line carries or to get some work in the passing game. RoJo is also getting 20+ touches consistently over their past 3 games and I don’t see Arians really changing that game plan with how bad the Raiders run defense is. Our Research Station also has him projected for 79 rushing yards here today as well, so RoJo checks all the boxes I’m looking for once again here this afternoon.
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DeGen Special
This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
Mecole Hardman to Score First (+1400) 0.1 Units
Oct 11, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) is defended by Las Vegas Raiders inside linebacker Cory Littleton (42) in the second quarterat Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Watkins is out again here, which only leads to increased targets for Mecole Hardman who is almost as good of a deep threat as Tyreek Hill. He hasn’t broken a huge play for a TD yet this year, and I have a gut feeling that he is due for a bomb early in this game. He’ll run a good amount of his routes in the slot and with how well this Chiefs defense has played, I don’t see them giving up an early TD to Denver. I’ll be taking a shot here for 0.1 units.
Those are some of my favorite plays for the 4 P.M. games, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.