Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a brand new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$. First, we’ll take a look at what happened last week with my these picks, follow me fellow DeGens!
Last week was a blood bath, I figured some regression was coming, but there is nowhere to go but up after that. Honestly, all it did was make me angry and I’m coming back with a vengeance this week and we got back on track on Thursday, going 2-1, and we were 1 DeSean Jackson yard from going 3-0 as he got injured early in the 4th quarter, not to mention the long shot bet of Daniel Jones to score at +425 lost when Jones broke and 80 yard run only to stumble and trip his own feet at the 10 yard line… hopefully this is a sign that our luck is changing for this week.
Week 7: 2-1 +1 units
Total for Year: 19-19 0 units
Before I dig into this, let’s take a look at where I start my research every week, in our Research Station, which has all our stats, projections, and literally any thing else you need to not only dominate Daily Fantasy Sports, but is a very useful tool for betting as well! Also, sign up for access to our brand new Research Lab as well, which kicks things up an extra notch!
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
Stefon Diggs over 5.5 Receptions (-143) to Win 1 Unit
Stefon Diggs has been having a phenomenal year so far in his first year in Buffalo, and he gets a cushy matchup here against a Jets defense that is currently ranked 24th in overall team DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and 31st in overall team DVOA against the pass. This Jets defense has actually been very good against the run, which tells us that the way to attack this Jets defense is through the air, as other teams have had great success doing so, and McDermott is a smart enough coach to take advantage of this. When it comes to props, we want to look for opportunity, and Diggs has it here as he plays 90% of the Bills offensive snaps and averages 10 targets and 7 receptions per game. This Jets secondary is also allowing a 70% catch rate to opposing WRs and Diggs draws a green light in our WR vs CB Breakdown Sheet. The nice boost that comes for Diggs here, is that John Brown is out once again today. Brown will miss his 3rd consecutive game, and in the two previous games he missed, Diggs has seen 24 targets and hauling in 16 receptions. Dawson Knox is also on the Covid-19 reserve list so the only competition that Diggs has for targets in this game will be Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. He also has had at least 6 catches in every single game except one, which was against the Rams when he was being shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. Diggs checks all the boxes I look for when it comes to props and I also love the fact that this is a division game, so I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas pedal even if they get out to a big lead.
Terry McLaurin Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-118) to Win 1 Unit
Scary Terry draws a cupcake soft matchup here today against this Cowboys defense and I love him not only for DFS purposes but for this prop as well. On the year, Dallas ranks 21st DVOA against the pass, and 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing WR1s. McLaurin will see a lot of Daryl Worley in this game, who is allowing a 158.3 passer rating when thrown at this year, which is a perfect passer rating. I talked about opportunity with Diggs as well, and McLaurin checks that box as well, as he plays 95% of the offensive snaps for this WAS team. McLaurin is really coming into his own in this offense, and Kyle Allen has been able to get him the ball with great success, and I see him being targeted 10+ times in this game. McLaurin is also averaging over 81 receiving yards per game, with his one dud also being when he was shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. We’ve seen the recipe for success so far this year, and it is to attack this Dallas defense as they can’t stop a nose bleed. I believe that this game also has some sneaky shootout potential, as this Washington defense isn’t very good either and Dalton will be much more comfortable in this offense in his second start. Game script favors McLaurin here, as the only other real receiving threats on this WAS offense are Antonio Gibson, a running back, and Logan Thomas, who has really failed to take advantage of the targets he’s been getting all year long. Scary Terry checks all the boxes I’m looking for in this game and the matchup doesn’t get any better than this.
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This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
A.J. Dillon to Score 1st (+1200) 0.1 units
We all know that the Houston Texans defense is hot garbage, and all reports are indicating that Aaron Jones won’t play in this game. A.J. Dillon is going to be a short-yardage specialist for the Packers, as he is an absolute force to try and stop at the goal-line with his thighs that look like tree trunks and low center of gravity. The Packers will want to come out aggressive here after a dud game last week, and there is a very solid chance that their first drive ends up in the red-zone and Rodgers giving it to his big back to punch it in.
Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.