Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
We have another Game 7 tonight! Right now it looks like it will be Ian Anderson going up against Dustin May. May was just announced as he went just 2 innings in game 5. I see the Dodgers rolling out a few SPs in this game. The Dodgers are -150 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 8.
The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination and will turn to their hard-throwing sinker specialist, Dustin May. There is plenty of red above with some blue. The thing we have to look at here is that some of the blues are under some pitches that he just doesn’t throw very often. We see that he is going to have to work against the top of the order, which isn’t surprising. Freddie Freeman offers the best match-up, while Ozuna has a decent match along with BvP, and Acuna has a solid path to success. The one guy at the bottom that I think could be sneaky for us in GPP play is Austin Riley. I think he profiles surprisingly well here.
The key for May is going to be the usage of his sinker-cutter combination. His curveball doesn’t profile well in this match-up so he is going to need those two pitches to work off of each other. May’s cutter is so important because the Braves struggle a ton against that pitch with their best hitter against it, out of action. The curve is key because he is going to have to show it some but the Braves are dangerous against that pitch.
We get the same two guys at the top, Acuna, and Freeman, who have strong profiles. Guys like Ozuna and d’Arnaud are decent options for us. I have to dig in more and see what I think the Dodgers end up doing. I believe I will be adding another pitcher profile or two as I think it’s a near guarantee that we see Urias on the mound. Dansby Swanson has stepped up a bit the last couple of games so he is somebody that I think has upside for us.
The key for Gonsolin will be his fastball against both sides of the plate. He has allowed ISOs of .211 and .257 to LH and RHBs, respectively with that pitch.
I do believe that Urias sees the mound in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him help Gonsolin get this game through 6. This is a team that I liken to the Astros as they should destroy LHPs based on their lineup build but they are actually stronger against RHPs. Looking above, we see the usual suspects with Acuna and Freeman with solid matches. We also see the obvious Ozuna and even d’Arnaud (a smaller sample). The one bat with the best profile match in my eyes is Ozzie Albies. He has come alive with an HR in each of the first two games of the series. Albies is 4 for 4 against LHPs this postseason, while the rest of the team is 7 for 28 combined.
The key for Urias is going to be the use of his slider-curve combination. He relies plenty on his change-up and it’s a pretty good one so I am not very worried about that pitch. If he gets ahead in the count, his change-up is going to be very tough to square up for most of the Braves lineup. I can see him struggling with d’Arnaud the most.
WOW, we see quite a bit of blue again today. Anderson has been really impressive but we have to remember that he is extremely raw and can lose his control at any point. Even with all that blue, we only see one batter with 3 excellent columns. That batter is Cody Bellinger, who has struggled in 2020. I still trust the profile here so he is going to end up one of my top plays. The other guys that I really want to be above the field on are Corey Seager and AJ Pollock. Both guys have really solid profiles, especially against the secondary pitch that Anderson uses most against their handedness. I know that Turner has 2 “neutral” pitches but they are pretty close to being strengths for him in this match-up.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much to work with when it comes to Anderson’s pitch profile history. When we look at his small season numbers, we see that he’s allowed more power to RHBs so that should make things interesting tonight. In case Anderson only goes 1-2, I think we could see Wright in a relief role. I have grabbed his pitch profile below!
WOW, we see quite a bit of blue again today. Wright has stepped up for the Braves over his last few starts. He has upside as an SP at the MLB level but realizes he was struggling quite a bit prior to his recent stretch. Once again we see Bellinger with a lot of blue next to his name. My worry is that his struggles are just going to trump his historical numbers. He did hit a big triple in the 9th last night and maybe that gets him going. Looking at the rest of the Dodgers, Seager is going to be my second favorite. A couple of other bats that stand out to me, profile-wise, are Betts, Smith, and Joc Pederson.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much to work with when it comes to Wright’s pitch history. In his short MLB career, Wright has given up an ISO over .300 to both the LH and RH side of the plate. He is going to need to find a way to command his fastball (he has a walking issue). I think he goes 4 tonight at most.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!