Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Welcome to the ALCS, which is being played in San Diego at PetCo Park. We get a game 7 here in what should be an awesome game to watch. The Rays will be sending Charlie Morton to the mound while the Astros will send Lance McCullers. Tampa Bay is a -118 favorite and the game has a total set at 8.
We see that Morton has just 1 pitch that could give most of the lineup trouble. There is some decent BvP history between the Astros bats and their former teammate, Morton. I would say that Bregman has the best profile match, while guys like Springer, Altuve, Brantley, and Gurriel fit pretty well. Maldonado is an interesting case as he has dominated against Morton but his profile just isn’t very strong, at all. In fact, his profile is pretty weak overall.
For Morton, it comes down to the use of his fastball and cutter against RHBs. Those RHBs have a wOBA of .364 against his cutter and a hard-hit rate of nearly 47% against his fastball. The LHBs have an XwOBA of .435 against his fastball.
The Rays are striking out a TON as we saw Valdez rack up the K’s in game 1. When we look above, we see some solid profiles but nothing that really stands out above the rest. I would say that Brandon Lowe has the best overall profile match, while the hot bat of Arozarena just doesn’t have enough of a sample size for us to judge. We see that McCullers throws a ton of curves to LHBs while he relies on his sinker the most against RHBs. Lowe has a strong XwOBA against curves, while Tsutsugo offers us an interesting match in a small sample. As far as the RHBs go, I think that Adames is one we can consider against his sinker.
We know that he is going to attack LHBs with his curve and the RHBs with his sinker. He has allowed an ISO of just .118 to LHBs with his curve, but they do have an XwOBA of .357 against it. His sinker has allowed a wOBA of .380 to RHBs but an ISO of just .111 over the last few seasons.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Welcome to the NLCS, we get to see Walker Buehler against Max Fried. The LA Dodgers are -145 favorites and the game has a total set at 8 runs. This game is being played in Arlington (Texas Rangers).
We see just as many red boxes as we see blue boxes. That is going to make this an interesting spot to break down. I will point out that we saw the Marlins attack Acuna up in the zone with hard fastballs and that should show the Dodgers and Buehler a path to success. His profile against the other offerings is pretty strong so he can take advantage of mistakes. The best overall match isn’t going to shock you as he should end up the N.L. MVP. Freddie Freeman sees plenty of blues to go with one neutral pitch option. Out of the rest of the bats, we can see that Ozuna and d’Arnaud offer us a couple of paths to success, even in a tough match-up.
The keys to Buehler’s success or demise in this spot are his fastball and slider to RHBs, cutter to LHBs. His fastball has a hard-hit rate of 44 and 47% to LHBs and RHBs, respectively. His slider has allowed an ISO of .182 to RHBs, while his cutter has allowed an ISO of .191 to LHBs.
WOW, do we see plenty of positive columns above! With that being said, we notice that a large portion of that blue is in the fastball category. The two best profiles belong to Justin Turner and AJ Pollock. Guys like Betts, Muncy, and Bellinger are intriguing options. Both Bellinger and Muncy have had success against Fried, in LvL situations. I am curious to see the entire profile of Kike Hernandez as I expect him to start, while right now Pederson sits in the projected starting lineup.
Everything comes down to how well Fried does with his fastball. We see the Dodgers are loaded with fastball hunting bats. He has allowed wOBA’s of .347 and .342 to LHBs and RHBs, respectively. He needs that pitch to be effective so that he can use his slider-curve combination as those have been his best pitches.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!