Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
Welcome to the ALCS, which is being played in San Diego at PetCo Park. Game 6 of the series will see Framber Valdez take on Blake Snell. The Rays are a -134 favorite and the game has a total sitting at 8.
We see that a few of the Astros bats have had excellent success against Snell. We also see that there is a pretty even breakdown among blue, red, and white in the chart above. George Springer lines up excellently from a pitch profile standpoint, with blue across the board plus a 4-13 BvP history that includes an HR. I like the match-up for Bregman, Gurriel, and even for Altuve. The issue here is that the SL column really only matters for Brantley and Reddick, as LHBs. Carlos Correa is a guy that we need exposure to based purely on the way he is swinging it. He has neutral splits vs the fastball-change up, a combination that Snell throws 71% of the time to RHBs.
For Snell, I think it’s going to come down to how well he throws his change/curve combination. The main pitches for Snell’s success or demise will be his curve against RHBs (.399 XwOBA allowed) and his slider against LHBs (.480 XwOBA allowed).
The Rays are striking out a TON and he struck out 8 in-game 1. We actually see quite a bit of red in the image above. I do have this feeling that Brosseau will be in the lineup but right now he is out of the projected lineup. There is basically zero BvP data to go off of in this match-up. My top play, according to the above data, is going to be Brosseau. We know Arozarena has been hot for TB but his sample size is so small against the pitch profile. A guy like Adames is a bit of a wild card as he has struggled in the postseason but he gets such a great pitch profile match.
We know that Valdez has very little history against TB (almost zero histories). The keys to his success lie in his fastball to LHBs and his curve to RHBs. We see that the LHBs have a wOBA of .429 against his fastball, while the RHBs have an ISO of .216 against his curveball. That curve is where we could see somebody like Zunino surprise us a bit.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Welcome to the NLCS, we get to see Dustin May against what is probably a bullpen game for the Braves. This game is being played in Arlington (Texas Rangers).
The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination and will turn to their hard-throwing sinker specialist, Dustin May. There is plenty of red above with some blue. The thing we have to look at here is that some of the blues are under some pitches that he just doesn’t throw very often. We see that he is going to have to work against the top of the order, which isn’t surprising. Freddie Freeman offers the best match-up, while Ozuna has a decent match along with BvP, and Acuna has a solid path to success. The one guy at the bottom that I think could be sneaky for us in GPP play is Austin Riley. I think he profiles surprisingly well here.
The key for May is going to be the usage of his sinker-cutter combination. His curveball doesn’t profile well in this match-up so he is going to need those two pitches to work off of each other. May’s cutter is so important because the Braves struggle a ton against that pitch with their best hitter against it, out of action. The curve is key because he is going to have to show it some but the Braves are dangerous against that pitch.
We are still waiting on the Braves pitching plans for this game. They have already said they would not bring Fried back on 3-days rest. I would assume it’s a bullpen game led by Josh Tomlin to start. He has starting experience from his days with the Indians and I assume he’s about the only one who can provide some length to begin the game. I will update this section when we get word on their plans.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!