Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
Welcome to the ALCS, which is being played in San Diego at PetCo Park. Houston picked up a win on Wednesday night which brings us Game 5 tonight. We finally got the updated starters and it’s Curtiss (as an opener) for the Rays with the Astros going with Luis Garcia. The Rays are -140 favorites in a game with a total sitting at 8.5 runs.
So we get an update to the pitching in this game and we now get Curtiss opening for the Rays. We expect Fleming to follow at some point but it’s not a guarantee. Full bullpen games are a headache to figure out in terms of pitch profiles. If we get the Curtiss-Fleming combination for 5-6 innings of this game, we see guys like Springer, Bregman, and Altuve in plus spots. I know that’s shocking given that those 3 guys are the most important to the Astros success tonight.
When we think about pitching for the Rays, we could also see guys like Nick Anderson, Ryan Thompson, and Pete Fairbanks.
The Rays are striking out a TON but can Luis Garcia take advantage? We have no real data on Garcia even though he did throw some innings this season. I would think that the Astros hope that they can get 4 out of him as he hasn’t thrown more than 1.1 in about 38 days. I am going to include his splits breakdown below. We see that he has been smacked by LHBs so far at the MLB level. 5 of the 6 hits he has allowed to LHBs have gone for extra-bases.
The key for Garcia tonight is going to be just getting ahead and being able to get as deep as he can. If I hear a pitch limit at any point, I will update it here. The Astros bullpen is NOT very strong and with it being an elimination game, I would expect to see guys warming up early in the game.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Welcome to the NLCS, we get to see the Braves and Bryse Wilson take on Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. This is Game 4 and it’s being played in Arlington (Texas Rangers). The Dodgers are -230 favorites and the game has a total sitting at 9 runs.
We get to see an LHP take on the Braves for the second time, now. They have been doing a ton of work against RH starters. This is a team that I liken to the Astros as they should destroy LHPs based on their lineup build but they are actually stronger against RHPs. Looking above, we see the usual suspects with Acuna and Freeman with solid matches. We also see the obvious Ozuna and even d’Arnaud (a smaller sample). The one bat with the best profile match in my eyes is Ozzie Albies. He has come alive with an HR in each of the first two games of the series. Albies is 5 for 7 against LHPs this postseason, while the rest of the team is 13 for 53 combined.
The key for Kershaw is going to be his back, to be honest. I think he is going to be fine but the Dodgers need him to be THE Clayton Kershaw. The slider is going to be the key pitch for Kershaw on Thursday night. That is his best route to success, especially against the bottom half of this Braves lineup.
WOW, we see quite a bit of blue again today. Wilson is going to be tasked with trying to slow down a suddenly red-hot offense. He hasn’t pitched in a game in 18 days now. We saw Gonsolin come out with some electric stuff after his long lay-off but then he hit a wall and while the K’s kept happening, his command disappeared and was all over the place. We could see something similar here with Wilson, only the Dodgers are an excellent hard fastball hitting team. A couple of guys that broke out last night, Bellinger and Pederson, line up excellently again tonight. Guys like Seager, who is hot, and Muncy, who looks to be figuring it out, are in great spots as well.
Unfortunately, we don’t have much to work with when it comes to Wilson’s history. He has allowed 52 hits at the MLB level and 26 have gone for extra-bases (17 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 7 HRs). He has allowed LHBs to hit for a .343 average against him while the RHBs have 15 of the 26 extra-base hits.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!