I really think this is going to help so many of you build a smart, safe player pool for NFL DFS, though. And, I think starting with the safer players, then expanding to gpp pivots is the way to go. I cut it all up into a “process” for you using videos and the Research Station, along with some Domination Station setup. Finally, I compared what I liked with Geek’s NFL Cheatsheet for a confidence boost…..and we aligned in nearly 90% of the players listed.
I made this an article simply to house all of the videos and commentary so you don’t have to sift through the #chop-talk channel for hours and hours piecing it all together. If you want more of this, please let me know. I’ll produce whatever you guys want for as long as it helps you guys out.
First Discussion – Quarterbacks
Once the Research Station is up and running with Vegas info in it, we can quickly build a player pool. If you follow the steps in these videos, you can find 90% of the sensible plays on the slate in under an hour. And, the process of elimination (Box Checking) doesn’t change from week to week. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Focus on Home, Favored, offense implied to score more than 24 points. These historically lead to high floor QBs that can pay off their salaries.
Red Circle Plays (for definition of “red circle play,” see Running Back video next) – Mahomes, Ryan, Dak.
Yellow Circle Plays – Big Ben, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray
Running Backs – (all videos are under 15 min)
We focus on home favorites. Historically, running backs on teams implied to score more than 24 points are also in great spots. Receptions are important, as are goal line touches. By using these “check marks,” we can simply cross names off the list that don’t meet strong criteria. And, we are left with only the strongest backs in the strongest matchups set to do real damage on the slate. They have strong floors, and they have matchups that should allow them to test their ceilings this week.
Red Circle Plays – Zeke, CEH, Conner, Kamara
Yellow Circle Plays – Gurley, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, David Johnson
Remember, Red and Yellow Circles fail. These are only “situations” that lead to value….not a guarantee. And, other RBs come from seemingly nowhere to have great games. (Dalvin Cook has done so twice this year already, as has Chris Carson.) As you play larger gpps, absolutely open your mind to those players not meeting the above criteria. But, for cash games and smaller tourneys, 90% of your player list should still stick to the red and yellow circle plays.
Wide Receivers Video
Wide Receivers are more “volatile” than the previous two categories. The chalky players fail here more often because they don’t get the opportunity. A QB touches the ball every play and controls his destiny most. Running Backs see 15-20 touches per game. A great wide receiver may be targeted 10-12 times….and is still at the mercy of the QB to accurately get the ball to him where he can then produce.
We can take advantage in this category by noticing which receivers are in great situations (red or yellow circle), but are underowned in the industry. While I won’t target them specifically for ownership purposes, I definitely love it when I find them.
Red Circle Plays – Cee Dee Lamb, Calvin Ridley, Sammy Watkins, Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Jamison Crowder
Yellow Circle Plays – Amari Cooper, Russell Gage, Zacchaeus, Renfrow, Fuller V, Hopkins, Kupp, Woods, Tee Higgins
Tight Ends and Defenses Video
Another quick knock down of players focusing on red and yellow circles. Not a big list……for good reason!
Red Circle Plays – Dalton Schultz, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller…Steelers, Ravens, Rams defenses
Yellow Circle Plays – Logan Thomas, Mark Andrews…..Cardinals defense
BONUS VIDEO – Trends and Stacks Tabs
Quick glance at trending usage and snap counts. Also, building stacks and adjusting the columns to gain fresh ideas.
“Chalk Check” Video and Dom Station Setup
Part One
Part Two
Comparison to The Geek!
Another quick video showing how all the quick research comes together. No longer do you need to pour over stats for hours and hours like we used to five years ago. Those days are gone. A simple “box checking” process, visualization of the red/yellow/blue circles, a little optimizer play, and a cross check with one of our greatest DFS minds will show you we are on the right track for success.
We always have a couple areas we will disagree, but largely we line up very well. This week, it’s Dalton Schultz…..and possibly Todd Gurley.
The discussion is always alive in our beginner chat room, choptalk, geekspeak, and the main NFL and NFL Coaching rooms. Please join in with questions and comments. We want to help you become the best player you can be! Have a great week!