NASCAR Calming the Chaos 10/4/20 – Talladega

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head to Talladega this week for the first wildcard race of the playoffs, before heading to another one next weekend.  The stakes – and tensions – will be high, but that just gives us different ways to approach this one.  There’s a lot to consider, so let’s get to it!

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Talladega Superspeedway

We all know the theme here by now – lots of speed, but not a lot of space in between cars.  This is your standard “plate style” race, where we expect to see at least one or two big wrecks that can wipe out upwards of half the field in a matter of seconds.  Typical lineup construction can quickly go out the window here, and you’re only limited by how bold you want to be.

Creativity, with a bit of luck

Because these races can be so unpredictable, there aren’t really too many “wrong” ways to build lineups (don’t stack your lineups full of guys starting in the top-10…that’s wrong).  Unless you’re building hundreds of lineups, you can’t really cover all possibilities here.  With that in mind, I think it’s best to put the lineup building on hold, take a step back, and determine how you think this race will play out first.  Will we see typical Talladega chaos, with a bunch of DNFs?  Will we see another “calm” race play out?  What about the lead laps, will they be shuffled around between a bunch of drivers again, or will we see just one or two drivers lead most of them?  Will we see something on the extreme side (being overly safe or overly chaotic), or something more in the middle?

Remember – we’re not trying to predict who will or won’t wind up in a random crash…rather, we’re trying to put ourselves in a position to take advantage of the good/bad luck that the drivers will encounter.

Ignoring the dominators and a few exceptions for the time being, you can look at the field as one big sliding scale in terms of potential ceiling.  The closer the driver is starting to the front, the lower their ceiling will be, but also – generally speaking – the lower their ownership will be.  The deeper they start, the higher their ceiling, but they’ll also likely have higher ownership.  This is where being creative comes into play; you can load up on those starting in the back for maximum ceiling, or you can creep up a bit to leverage ownership.  Basically, the more chaotic the race, the more likely we are to see larger scores.  The safer it is, the lower the race’s ceiling becomes, so the lower ceiling (and lower owned) drivers turn into the bigger plays.

Also, ignoring the exceptions once again, most drivers can be looked at as just their starting position and salary.  For example, you can’t really look at James Davison and Timmy Hill and point to one as “the play” and one as “the fade.”  It’s impossible to know where they will be if/when the chaos strikes, if they’ll be in a spot to avoid a wreck, or if they’ll get caught up in it (or if something else unrelated happens to them).  They’re the same play; high ceiling, low floor, low cost, but will probably carry some ownership.

You can eat some chalk and load up on them, or you can lower your ownership with them and focus more on more expensive drivers (i.e. Suarez) instead.  They won’t offer the same maximum ceiling, but if Davison/Hill don’t come through (due to the race being less chaotic), you’ll have some shots with lower-owned guys who become the new “maximum ceiling” plays.

In the end, it all boils down to being creative and predicting (guessing) how the race will play out.  Remember, these races can be wildly unpredictable during the regular season, let alone a playoff race.  Trust your gut and build accordingly!

The Field

Dominators

Dominators are an option here, not a requirement like at all other races.  Generally speaking, I would aim for one dominator for most lineups, but I don’t mind having some lineups using two of them.  Of course, you can skip them entirely and focus on finishing position/place differential instead, if you think the race plays out in that favor (i.e. the lead laps get wasted due to wrecks, or they’re split between so many drivers that they don’t matter).

It should be no surprise that the Penske cars are extremely good here, and they will be among the most likely to dominate.  Blaney, Keselowski, and Logano make up that trio, and all things considered, I like them in that order.  They were 1-2-3 in terms of best average running position at the June race, and I expect more of the same here.  Since Blaney is starting 14th, I don’t mind pairing him with either of the other two, but I would probably shy away from full stacks.

The Chevy camp has been looking strong at these races too, most notably the Hendrick cars.  Elliott and Bowman are the more likely of the four to lead laps, and since they both start closer to the front, I would probably choose one or the other here.  Johnson and Byron will start 17th and 21st respectively, so you can mix and match them however you’d like.  I don’t mind using the Hendrick cars as a pivot to Penske, or you can mix and match all of these guys.

Hamlin will start on the pole, which isn’t something to get overly excited about unless you’re a Penske driver, but he could still be worth having some exposure to in case they get single file quickly and he can lead most of the first stage or two.  If things get chaotic, it probably won’t happen until later in the race, which gives him a slight bump here.

Field – Kurt, Truex, Harvick, Kyle Busch, Bowyer, Almirola.  Nothing at all exciting about these guys, but they probably won’t see any ownership.

Studs

I know nobody wants to hear this, but Stenhouse is actually very good at these races, and this is probably his best chance to actually come through for us.  He can drive himself into the top-5, lead some laps, and contend for the win, bringing a healthy chunk of place differential to boot.  Only the Penske cars had a higher average running position higher than he did at the June race.

Johnson and Byron for the reasons I mentioned earlier.

Gaughan starts dead last and is the token “plate race ringer” that we’ve seen over the years.  He has a huge ceiling, but as we saw in June, is not immune to wrecking here (notice him flying through the air in the picture above).  You can choose to eat some of the chalk and go heavy on him, or fade him in hopes that he runs into issues again.  He has a decent chance of splitting the field in half in terms of ownership, so this would be a good place to make a stand one way or the other.

Austin Dillon is sort of like Stenhouse Jr here – he’s very good at these races and can drive himself into the top-5 naturally, but doesn’t carry nearly as much place differential upside with him.  Not only will that keep his ownership down, but that’ll also make him a bit more enticing on FanDuel, so don’t forget about him!

Field – Almirola/Bowyer/Jones.  Again, nothing too exciting here, but they do at least offer top-5 upside if they can stay clean.  Will be low-owned, if nothing else.

Value studs

There are a lot of great options in this group, so feel free to go nuts here.

Reddick starts nice and deep, and has just looked so dang good all year, including here back in June.  He had an average running position of 13th and led 19 laps, and while his 20th place finish didn’t stand out, I think he’ll find himself something closer to a top-10 this time.  He certainly drove like a top-10 car.

Wallace is another stand out option here, starting 27th and having an average running position just behind Reddick back in June.  He finished 14th, but I think he has a little more in him.  Still, starting so deep would make any top-15 a good finish, and he can drive himself there without any help.  A few things go his way and we’re talking a top-10 finish, without relying on the chaos that the punts would need to pull that off.

Ty Dillon is arguably the best option here, with an average finish of 13.29 over seven races.  They were very consistent too, ranging from 10th to mostly 15th place finishes (worst was 17th).  He’s very true to his track history, and with a little help, he could grab his first single-digit finish here.

LaJoie isn’t too far behind these other guys, and is a bit cheaper…though salary doesn’t really matter this week.  Still, he has solid history here and can drive his way into the winning lineup, just like the other strong options here can.  Very good for all builds, but great for those “non chaotic” lineups where you’re not taking the punts.

Custer is right up there with Reddick, the biggest differences being starting position (starts 12 spots higher) and salary (quite a bit cheaper on both sites).  However, he had a slightly better average running position of 12th back in June, so a natural top-10 is certainly within reach here.  He shouldn’t see nearly as much ownership as Reddick/Wallace will, making him both a viable pivot or stacking option (especially for “non chaotic” lineup builds).

Preece is just a tick behind Custer, though still a very strong play in this price range.  He finished 15th here in June, and with a little bit of help, he could do something like that again.  His worst finish here was 18th in 2019, and his best was 3rd in his first cup series race here.  Needless to say, he’s got just as much upside as these other guys, just a little less likely to pay off with the added benefit of potentially less ownership.  I think he would be best used in “chaotic” or “somewhat chaotic” type lineups.

Newman has plenty of solid history here, the question is will he revert to that, or will he still be a little shy?  My gut tells me he’ll be a little shy again, but he probably won’t see a whole lot of ownership, so this would be a place to find some leverage if you think he cranks it up.  If he gives it his all, he’s got the same natural top-10 upside as the best of them.

Punts

Last but not least, the punts.  As I eluded to earlier, these guys are low-floor, high-ceiling darts, who will thrive in “chaotic” type lineups.  In other words, if we see a bunch of wrecks, they have a good chance of moving up into the top-20, top-15, or even top-10 if things get really out of hand.  If the race goes clean though, they are likely to finish in the 30’s somewhere, and the value studs will easily outscore them.  How much you use them will depend on how you see this race playing out.  You can mix and match these two groups all you want, or if you’re trying to stick to a specific approach, try to keep the punts with those that need a little bit of chaos to really pay off.

Suarez, Haley, Davison, Hill, Gase, Houff, Poole, and Ware are the options here…and that’s in no particular order.

Quick recap

Dominators (1 for general purpose DK/FD, up to 2 for GPP)

• Primary dominator – Blaney/Keselowski/Logano/Elliott, Bowman
• Secondary dominators – Any of the above
• Secondary pivots – Kurt/Truex/Harvick/Kyle Busch/Bowyer/Almirola

Studs

• Stenhouse, Johnson/Byron, Gaughan
• Pivots – Austin, Bowyer/Almirola/Jones

Value studs

• Reddick/Wallace/Ty, LaJoie/Custer/Preece, Newman

Punts (“chaotic” lineups only – low floor, very high ceiling)

• Suarez/Haley/Davison/Hill/Gase/Houff/Poole/Ware

Closing thoughts

Creativity and race theory are king here, along with finishing position and place differential.  Remember that salary doesn’t matter here, so if you find yourself leaving several thousand on the table, don’t worry about it.  If you’re uncomfortable with a lineup, chances are it’s good for Talladega.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!