NASCAR Calming the Chaos 10/18/20 – Kansas

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head to my home track this week, but unfortunately for me, I won’t get to attend the race this time around.  I look forward to being there for the 2021 races, but for now, let’s dig in and figure out how we can come away with a few extra bucks this weekend.

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Kansas Speedway

Kansas is one of the basic 1.5-mile track configurations, most similar to Las Vegas and Charlotte.  Wouldn’t you know it, but we were just at Las Vegas a few weeks ago, so that would be a good race to refer to.  This track is nice and smooth, so we’ll see a little extra speed and a slightly better chance of a wreck (there was a time when we couldn’t see a race here without a red flag).

Round #3 begins

We start the round of 8, which will give the playoff drivers three chances to win a ticket to the championship race.  Fortunately for them, we’ll see two calmer races (compared to what we’ve seen in previous rounds) first, which will give them a better chance of winning with skill than the luck of avoiding wrecks.

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As you can see, the gap in points is really starting to spread out compared to previous rounds.  The top two are in a decent spot, but realistically, a DNF is going to put any driver in a bad spot, so these guys are really going to need to be on top of their game.  It’s going to be hard for them to “point their way in” to the finale, because there’s a pretty decent chance that 2 or 3 of these next races will be won by a playoff driver.

That means that every single point will be very important, which means these drivers will need to push themselves and sit in the top-10 / top-5 as much as possible.  That’s good for us, especially over on FanDuel where some of them may not offer much place differential, but still plenty of finishing position upside.

That also means we’re less likely to see guys like Hamlin and Keselowski do funky pit stop rotations because they’ll want to grab as many stage points as they can.

The Field

Hybrids

Just one this week, good ol’ Kyle Busch.  Now, according to him, he’s junk, his car sucks, the world is ending, etc.  But in reality, he’s doing fine in terms of finishing races in a good spot.  He finished 6th at Las Vegas, and within the top-7 at several of the previous races that weren’t wildcards.  He’s not winning or leading laps, but seeing that he starts 20th this week at a reduced price, he can still pay off fairly easily without it.  In other words, don’t be afraid to go here.

Dominators

One of the differences of the Kansas races compared to some other 1.5-mile tracks is that we only have 267 laps here (compared to 334 at Texas next week, 400 at Charlotte, etc).  This is why the race calc is only recommending 1 – 2 dominators on both sites this week.  I would probably lean towards using 2 dominators for all formats, with maybe a few solo lineups in the mix.

As for who, we have a few strong options here.  Elliott will start on the pole, and I think he has a pretty good chance at leading the first stage and finishing somewhere near the top-5.  He led 73 laps at Las Vegas with a 113.2 driver rating, third best in the field.  I like him as a standard primary dominator for all formats.

After that I’d have to give the nod to Hamlin.  He looks to be gaining momentum, and after leading 121 laps at Las Vegas (and 153 here last year), it’s hard to argue against him.  I think I would like him best as a secondary dominator since he starts 7th, meaning he’s more likely to lead the middle/end race than the start of it.

Truex and Harvick would have to be next, and even though they haven’t had a big race here in the last handful of races, they still offer huge ceilings with 100+ lead lap upside.  I would lean more towards using Truex as a secondary dominator, though with where Harvick is starting, he could be used as either a primary or secondary.

Keselowski, Blaney, and Logano would all be next.  I like the first two as supplemental or secondary dominators, meaning they could see anywhere from say, 30-100 lead laps anywhere throughout the race, though I don’t see them having the same upside as some of the other options above.  As for Logano, he could be used the same, or you could use him as a pivot to Elliott.

Bowman is our longshot option.  I don’t see him doing a whole lot, but he’s led laps here before (63 back in May 2019), so you could sprinkle him around just in case.  The same could be said for Almirola; it’s hard to predict if/when he’ll lead laps, but he’s done it at these 1.5-mile tracks before, so you can at least sprinkle him around just in case.

Studs

Again this week, the studs aren’t super strong, but there are some decent options to consider.  They’re all sort of the same play here, being mid-range priced drivers starting in the teens with top-5 upside.  The difference would be slight differences in salary, the likelihood of a strong finish, and any lead lap upside (for these drivers I would just take lead laps as a bonus, rather than trying to use them as an actual dominator).

In terms of raw finishing position upside, I’d say Jones is the best option here, followed by Kurt/Bowyer, Byron/Bowyer/Johnson, and then Almirola.  For extra lead lap upside, consider Kurt first and Byron/Almirola second.

While they are better options on FanDuel, I think they could see use on DraftKings as well, just not quite as much.  If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Jones (then Kurt/Byron).

Value studs

These guys have been pretty interesting all season long and this weekend is no different.  To start, my favorite here is easily DiBenedetto.  He’s inexpensive, starts 18th, and as we saw at Las Vegas, he carries legitimate top-5 upside with a very solid floor.  He’s probably my overall favorite play of anybody within a couple thousand of him.

Next is Buescher, who is just barely behind DiBendetto.  He finished 9th at Las Vegas and has recently finished 13th, 10th, 16th, and even 6th here at Kansas.  This is a fantastic track for him (he always excels at 1.5-mile tracks, but especially here since it’s so smooth and fast) and I think he’ll do more of the same.  While I do think DiBenedetto has slightly more raw upside, these two are practically neck and neck, and I don’t mind just taking them both.

Reddick and Custer have nearly the same finishing position upside as the studs do, the same place differential, but they are a little cheaper.  To me that puts them slightly ahead of all of them (who don’t lead any laps), with maybe the exception of Jones.  I’d probably lean GPP here and go to DiBenedetto and/or Buescher for cash, but I wouldn’t argue against using Reddick for a cash ladder.

The other guys aren’t bad, but they don’t stand out as much as the others do.  Bell, Stenhouse, and Austin make up the rest, and while they do carry plenty of upside, I just don’t feel as strongly about them.  Still, get some exposure to them one way or another, because they could realistically see a top-10 finish.

Value drivers

These drivers seem to be ranked mostly based on their starting position this week, and that starts with Nemechek, Kenseth, and Newman.  They all ran fairly comparable at Las Vegas, though Newman edged out the best finish of the group.  They’re mostly the same play this week, though for cash games I’d probably just pay down for Nemechek since he has the deepest starting position and he had the best average running position there.  Whoever you aren’t using for cash games, be sure you are for GPP.

Ty Dillon and McDowell have the highest finishing position upside, but they’ll start in the mid 20’s as opposed to the upper 20’s / low 30’s, which makes their floors fairly comparable, but does still give them a slightly higher ceiling.  For this reason I’d lean GPP or cash ladder here, but since they are cheaper, if they make a lineup work for basic cash games, I wouldn’t argue against it.

Suarez and LaJoie come in last place here.  While it’s true they had solid finishes in the July race, keep in mind that they had a bit of help there with so many stronger cars having issues.  They’ll need some help to pay off again here.  Still, if you’re going cheap, I’d rather use them over the punts, because they don’t have much of a chance to do a whole lot here.

Punts

Like Suarez and LaJoie, all of the punts will need some help to pay off.  It’s not impossible for them to, but not all that likely, so I would try to pay up whenever possible.

Quick recap

Hybrids

• Kyle Busch

Dominators (2 for general purpose on both sites for all formats, can also do 1 for GPP both sites)

• Primary dominator – Elliott, Logano, Harvick
• Secondary dominators – Hamlin, Truex/Harvick
• Secondary pivots – Keselowski/Blaney/Logano, Bowman

Studs

• Jones, Kurt/Byron, Bowyer, Johnson

Value studs

• DiBenedetto/Buescher, Reddick/Custer
• Pivots – Bell/Stenhouse/Austin

Value drivers

• Nemechek/Kenseth/Newman, Ty Dillon/McDowell
• Pivots – Suarez/LaJoie

Closing thoughts

That’s about all for this one.  Remember as you’re watching this race that we have another 1.5-mile next week, as anything you catch here that goes under the radar could give you an advantage next week.  Remember to ladder up, mind the pivots, and let’s take home some money.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!