With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Sep 20, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown (15) attempts to catch a pass as Houston Texans strong safety Eric Murray (23) defends during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Marquise Brown: With an aDOT of over 17 and a whopping 44% of the teams air yards and just over 26% of the targets, it is laughable that he is $6100 on FD. He has a great matchup against the Bengals and the Ravens have not had a ceiling game as a team yet and when that happens, Brown is a stone-cold lock for 20 fantasy points with this type of volume.
Darius Slayton: Slayton is only behind Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins in my volume rating, he is seeing 37% of the teams air yards, and while the 20% share of targets are not insane the over 25% of the teams Red Zone targets is. His .57 RACR can for sure be brought up a few points this week against a very shaky Cowboys defense.
Diontae Johnson: Johnson has seen over 30% of the Steelers team air yards and 24% of the teams’ targets and has had good fantasy games this year, but still only boasts a .33 RACR. The Eagles are not a good team right now and they are going to be hard-pressed slowing down Pittsburgh’s skilled WR core. He is a low to mid 6000s type of WR on FanDuel but is only $5800.
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Tyreek Hill: Tyreek is in the same boat as Slayton as in he is seeing a huge share of the air yards, an average amount of targets, and great Red Zone usage. The Chiefs like the Ravens have not seen a ceiling game as a team this year and this matchup is a perfect one to produce that, and if it happens Hill like Brown, should be seeing at least 20 fantasy points.
Brandin Cooks: While being a buy low on his volume with 23% of the team’s air yards and 17% of the targets and only a .37 RACR, Cooks is a different type of buy low to me this week, ownership buy low. He is coming off a dud chalk game and is seeing just as good of a matchup, has one more week of the offense under his belt and Watson is no longer being held back by Billy O, that less than 5% ownership projection is just icing on an amazing cake.
SPEAKING OF LOW OWNERSHIP:
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