With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Robert Woods: Woods has accumulated over 20% of the targets this season on a potent offense and has yet to amass over 20 FD points. His aDOT may be low but that is even more reason to believe that he is underperforming with a .45 RACR, teammate Cooper Kupp has only a 5.2 aDOT but has over a .9 RACR. A matchup against the New York Giants is the perfect place for the stars to align.
Adam Theilen: Adam Theilen comes in at #1 in my WR volume rating, putting him above other market share beasts like DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen. Theilen is seeing 45% of the teams air yards and just shy of 30% of their targets. A matchup against the Texans that has already been bet up 2 points is a great spot for him to put that usage to use, with those kind of numbers he is a WR who is capable of having a 10/100/2 stat line when it comes together. $7100 on FD is way too low, he will shoot up past the mid 7s when the blow-up game comes.
Amari Cooper: I hate recommending chalk WRs but the fact that Amari Cooper is playing on the offense running the most plays in the league and that he has seen 35 targets through 3 games and has not scored a TD is ludicrous. The Cowboys are boasting the 2nd highest implied team total on the slate, and at only $7100 with the volume and implied total of a WR who should be over $8000, he would be locked and loaded into my cash LU.
Marquise Brown: Brown is seeing over 36% of the air yards and 24% of the targets for the Ravens. Lamar has not been performing up to standard this year and what a spot for him and Brown to blow up against the Washington Football Team. Brown has only secured 51% of his air yards so a 50 yard plus TD is overdue at this point.
A few of these receivers are very cheap across the industry, but sometimes it pays to play one on Draftkings or Fanduel due to pricing discrepancies. Find out more in our Clipping Coupons Series! It’s FREE!
Sep 17, 2020; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) runs with the ball during the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Odell Beckham Jr.: As mentioned the Cowboys are implied the 2nd most points on the slate meaning that the Browns should be expected to have to throw the ball to stay in the game. Odell has the 6th best volume rating of WRs on the slate and only has a .4 RACR and no game with over 100 receiving yards. Cleveland is also implied 25.25 points due to the fact that the Cowboys secondary is allowing the most fantasy points to WRs. With him only being projected to be 6.5% owned, he is my favorite under the radar WR play of the week.
SPEAKING OF LOW OWNERSHIP:
Our Research Station has full ownership projections plus so much more to help you up your game. Use PROMO CODE: ‘THEORY’ FOR 20% OFF YOUR MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE!