BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC Vegas 12 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card back at the Apex in Vegas. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is an $18 buy-in & $100k goes to 1st place with $400k in total being paid out. I will probably throw a bunch of lineups in that contest & then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE & 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week & playing 50/50s & double-ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games & look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience & you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player & it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups & 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights, & hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Miles Johns $8,400 vs Kevin Natividad $7,800
Miles Johns
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Miles Johns is set to for his third fight in the UFC. The Fortis MMA product tasted defeat for the first time in February. Johns was flying kneed & finished by Mario Bautista in a prospect vs prospect fight. Now Johns will be facing another prospect in 9-1 UFC newcomer Kevin Natividad. On the feet, I really don’t think Johns is that good. He is athletic & powerful which does make him dangerous. Johns does have a nice, step-in power jab. He will throw some nice one-twos and jab, overhand rights. Johns can explode into some overhand & straight combinations looking for the kill. He doesn’t really have a lot of finesse and opponents can time him coming in. He will feint level changes to disguise what he’s going to do a bit. Johns can be low volume outside of the few blitz attacks in fights. He doesn’t have good footwork at all while moving backwards & con get overwhelmed. Johns does have good power & opponents have to respect that & his speed in close range. If this was solely on the feet, I think Natividad has an advantage. He just can’t get hit clean, especially early. Johns got hit with a clean flying knee that floored him his last fight giving him his first loss of his career. Johns has two career KO/TKO’s.
Miles Johns struggled with the grappling of Cole Smith in his UFC debut, but that is his bread & butter. He was made to pay in his second fight in the UFC, getting knocked out after attempting zero takedowns in the fight. Johns is a very good wrestler. He has big, explosive, double leg slams. He is very good at getting in on single legs & pushing opponents to the cage. He will get high crotch slams against the cage. On top, he was able to overwhelm some low-level fighters with ground & pound, but he isn’t great on top. He doesn’t have the best top control & allows fighters to stand up from under him. When he’s on top, he doesn’t look to pass either & can be stagnant & stood up. Johns struggled fighting off the back foot in his last match. When he got backed towards the fence, Smith was able to clinch up, get him down & get to the back. Smith had a lot of top control in the fight & it was a close decision. Johns is a good scrambler & usually can give his back to stand up, but he’s had his back taken in multiple fights. He stays cool & usually will turn in or work his way back to his feet and has never been subbed. Johns isn’t a big threat with submissions with just two in his career. Johns can get tired in fights, especially when he can’t get takedowns to rest & is being walked down. This is put up or shut up time and a huge fight for the career of Miles Johns.
Kevin Natividad
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Arizona Combat Sports
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +135
Kevin Natividad is going to try to make his UFC debut for the first second time. Unfortunately for Natividad the first time he tried to fight for the UFC he tested positive for Covid. It was a pretty sucky situation, because he accepted the fight as a late notice replacement and was set to fight a well-known veteran in Brian Kelleher. Natividad is an athletic boxer, wrestler. He has good forward pressure, head movement & cuts angles well. He has a really nice lead left hook. Natividad is really good at feinting or using his double jab to get into range for a hook or flying knee, something powerful to hurt opponents. He likes to draw out counters & land hook combinations inside. Natividad throws nice, straight shots down the middle. He has great head movement, cuts good angles, and creates counter opportunities off that. He has good body shots. He’s a good at pot shotting, keeping the range and distance while picking and pulling. Natividad doesn’t throw many kicks. He doesn’t check low kicks either. He isn’t very high volume, but he does have power. Natividad has five knockouts in his nine wins. Natividad’s defense on the feet isn’t the best. He can close the distance wildly at times. He is hittable in exchanges and doesn’t deal with forward pressure well. It seems like fighters can explode and land shots on him. Natividad also gets clipped early in a lot of fights. His one loss he was knocked out in nine seconds.
Kevin Natividad is a decent grappler. He is athletic and has fast level changes. He has a really nice double leg. He is also strong in the clinch. On top, Natividad isn’t super dangerous. He has good top control, but not great Jiu-Jitsu. In this fight I don’t see him wanting to grapple. I have seen him taken down in fights himself and controlled by guys with 7-7 records. He can be sloppy with his grappling also. Natividad will shoot from too far out & can just be inefficient with his grappling. Natividad slows down a bit but has good cardio.
Johns’ best attribute is his wrestling, but he seems to be a wrestler that has fallen in love with his striking. He does have power in his hands but that is really the best part of his striking. Natividad looks to be the more technical striker and he might be the higher volume striker as well. This fight is close on the feet, but the wrestling edge is why Johns is the favorite here and he should win this fight more than he loses it.
Natividad is my preferred play on DraftKings, and Johns will be closer to a fade for me. Johns does have a path to the optimal with a KO or a wrestling-based win. I just can’t count on him to do either of those and if he wins a striking based decision then he probably doesn’t hit 10x. Natividad can end up on the optimal with 10x+ in any win here so I do think he is in play in all formats. He might be a bit too chalky for me to want any leverage on, but he will make my player pool where Johns might get X’d out.
Winner – Miles Johns via Split Decision
Cortney Casey $8,700 vs Priscila Cachoeira $7,500
Cortney Casey
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -260
The longtime UFC veteran Cortney Casey will be making her third appearance of 2020. Casey has fought everyone. She is 5-7 in the UFC but has been pretty competitive against elite competition. Casey is 1-1 since moving up to 125 lbs. She started off her run at 125 lbs strong with a first round armbar but was submitted in her second fight in the division against Gillian Robertson. Casey is a bit slow & flat footed. If fighters stand in the pocket & trade with her that’s where she thrives. Casey has a decent jab & lead hook. She likes to counter with the left hook. Casey has a decent right hook & overhand right. Casey will throw a jab, uppercut. She will occasionally blitz forward with straight punch combos. She does have power in her hands. When Casey can land her right cross clean, she can rock girls. Casey is going to be the superior striker in this fight she just needs to stay technical and respect the power of Cachoeira.
Cortney Casey showed off her Jiu-Jitsu once again in her last match. She caught a nice armbar, which has been her specialty on the mat. Casey isn’t offensive with her wrestling usually but she if good off her back. I have seen her hit body locks and she has decent level changes. In this fight I think if she gets on top she could have a big advantage. Her takedown defense is not very good. With Casey having a wide stance it could also lead to her giving up single leg takedowns, I feel. Casey also is going to be weaker in the clinch. When Casey gets taken down, she is very active with her guard. She has a really nice armbar and enjoys the belly down armbar. Casey is good at climbing the cage to set them up. She will throw up triangles as well. When Casey can sweep to top position she is very strong. She has heavy ground & pound, quickly moves to dominant positions & loves the back. She will attack rear naked chokes & has finished a fight with G&P. Casey has four career submissions. She has good cardio & is always down to scrap.
Priscila Cachoeira
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Parana Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-3
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +220
Priscila Cachoeira finally got off the snide her last time out. She took her first UFC win in resounding fashion, knocking out Shana Dobson in less than one minute. What Cachoeira lacks in skill she makes up for in heart and grit. She is an action fighter & fun to watch. Cachoeira is a bar room brawler. She is extremely aggressive & will absorb a ton of punishment to give her own. Cachoeira is a fighter with a nice jab & a decent one-two. She will throw hard, heavy hooks & uppercut combinations. When she gets opponents backed against the cage, she will pour on the pressure & throw long punching combinations. She will attack the body with straight-right hands. She will throw straight-right, left hooks. She throws a lot of overhand rights. She will throw front kicks to the body & head. She will throw head kicks. She throws very hard and has no fear of being hit. She is very wild & has little to no defense. She holds her lands low & has gotten a bit better at moving her head, but still holds her chin very high. She is extremely tough & will plant her feet & go to war. She doesn’t back off when she gets hit and prefers to just throw until someone drops. She has 5 KO/TKO’s and is very durable never being finished with strikes.
Cachoeira is not a good grappler. She won’t go for takedowns much at all or try to get in the clinch. I don’t expect that to change here. She has very bad takedown defense. On her back she seems lost. She doesn’t control posture well & allows opponents to posture up & land brutal elbows. She will take big shots, won’t give up and has an unbreakable will. When Valentina Shevchenko was able to pass her guard into side control she got the crucifix & landed big elbows. She eventually was able to sink in a rear naked choke. She was almost armbarred against Molly McCann in their match, and Luana Carolina put her in a lot of bad positions on the mat. She has no submissions and has one submission loss. Cachoeira has questionable cardio, but it looks like she catches second winds. She only fights one way, going forward and throwing bombs.
This should be a fight that mainly stays standing. Casey should have the volume and speed edge and she is the more technical striker as well. Cachoeira has the power edge though and she will probably be the one landing the harder shots. Either could land takedowns but striking is what they are best at. I am going to side with Casey to win 2 or 3 rounds.
I don’t mind either side of this fight, for any format. I think Cachoeira is a fine punt play because this should be a 15-minute fight and even in a loss she can score 30-40. Casey is a fine play as well because she has a solid floor in a win and in a loss. She also does score well when she wins and I think people will be off her at $8.7k, so I like her in GPPs. Same with Cachoeira and she is live for a KO or decision win and she shouldn’t be very owned either. I want leverage to both of these ladies, and I don’t think I need to go much higher than 20% to make that happen. Casey is my preferred play of the two though because I think Cachoeira might be slightly more popular.
Winner – Cortney Casey via Unanimous Decision
Dustin Jacoby $8,900 vs Justin Ledet $7,300
Dustin Jacoby
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 78”
Gym: Finney’s HIT Squad
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 0-2
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -350
Dustin Jacoby is back, wiser & older and ready to take advantage of his second UFC opportunity. Jacoby went 0-2 in his first UFC stint, but that was all the way back in 2011. Now Jacoby is back at 32 years old with much more experience and ready to do damage. Jacoby instantly will become one of the best strikers in the division. He is renowned as one of the best kickboxers in Glory history. Jacoby has competed against the best strikers in the world and held his own, winning some and losing some. Jacoby’s style is good for MMA. He is long, fast & has a good frame for the division. Jacoby has excellent footwork & movement. Jacoby is a former 185er & super-fast for the LHW division. He keeps fighters at the end of his jab and throws some brutal low kicks. His distance control is very good. He is excellent at sliding just out of the way of opponents’ attacks and countering with a straight down the middle. He has a nasty counter check hook. Jacoby will use the jab to blind opponents & then switch stances and throw straights down the middle. Fighters sometimes don’t even realize he has switched stances & get hit clean. Jacoby throws some nasty kicks to the body; Front & round kicks up the middle. He will attack the front kick up the middle, and then immediately follow with a high kick. Jacoby throws some excellent intercepting knees. He will catch guys as they try to come inside & wear them down & make them timid by going to the body. Jacoby has a nasty flying knee. When Jacoby can back opponents to the cage, he will pick his shots well & is super accurate. He will mix in brutal elbows. Jacoby put a massive amount of damage on his last opponent, Ty Flores. Jacoby did get tired in the third round of DWCS fight, but it was a super high pace & he battered a fighter who didn’t want to go away for three rounds. Jacoby’s hands can drop when he tires & that’s when he could maybe get caught with a big shot. Jacoby is not an easy fighter to knockout though. He has been finished one time in MMA via ground & pound. In his kickboxing matches he has been knocked out only one time against one of the best of all time, the man who beat Israel Adesanya twice, Alex Pereira. He did also lose due to the three knock down rule vs Michael Duut. Overall, Jacoby has a beard and is a durable fighter with good defense & distance control. Jacoby has eight knockouts of his own.
Dustin Jacoby’s grappling hasn’t been tested too much in recent years. In his last fight he did show solid enough takedown defense. He was able to easily stuff the takedowns of Ty Flores & punish him for attempting them. He has a good sprawl and will use the front head lock to snap opponents down. He has good balance & athleticism overall. Against the cage he shows good balance and throw heavy elbows to the side of the head. Jacoby will attack the kimura to defend takedowns & work his way off the cage. In the clinch, Jacoby has nice elbows & absolutely brutal knees. He will throw some devastating knees to the body. I don’t imagine many fighters who aren’t lifelong grapplers will be able to take down Jacoby. Jacoby’s base line defense is very good & his distance control and athleticism at light heavyweight is hard to deal with. Looking back at Jacoby’s record, he has lost all his fights due to being out grappled. Clifford Starks and David Branch grinded him out to decisions, while John Saltar, Chris Camozzi & King Mo all got finishes on the ground. I do feel Jacoby has improved his defensive grappling since then and is better suited for 205. Against a fighter like Justin Ledet I see this playing out on the feet.
Justin Ledet
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: N/A
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-3
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +290
Justin Ledet has really faltered since making the move down to 205 lbs. After starting 3-0 in his UFC career at HW, he has now gone 0-3 at LHW. Ledet dropped a decision to Aleksa Camur in his last fight. He has not won a fight since September of 2017. Ledet is just a pure boxer on the feet. He has an 80” reach and one of the better jabs in the UFC. At HW that was enough to win fights alone. He would just jab & move, use his speed and coast to decisions. That hasn’t worked as well at 205. Ledet has a nice, lead left hook. He was able to counter Camur with some sneaky left hooks & rock him. He will use a lot of feints to disguise when he is throwing his jab. He has a nice straight-right hand & right hook. He is pretty one dimensional on the feet & doesn’t throw kicks or much in combination. He usually only will throw a jab or a jab, hook. Ledet is very heavy on his lead leg & that’s something he needs to address, because I imagine all his opponents will try to exploit that moving forward. Rakic was able to completely nullify his lead hand with the leg kicks. Jacoby has some of the best low kicks in the division. Ledet allows opponents to control the center, and almost constantly fights on the back foot. Ledet is a coaster, someone who is fine doing enough to just win and stay slightly ahead of his opponent on points. That is a risky thing to do & we have already almost seen it come back to bite him when he won via split decision against a fighter he was clearly better than in Zu Anyanwu. He is more of a volume striker and doesn’t have big power. He only has two career TKO’s. He has a great chin & will talk to opponents when they hit him to make sure they know they didn’t hurt him. He did finally get his chin checked by Johnny Walker. Walker was able to get a quick knockout victory which is the only finish loss of Ledet’s career.
Justin Ledet has shown well-rounded skills and has earned a UFC submission victory. Ledet isn’t an active wrestler in most fights, and I think it’s going to be hard for Ledet to get in on the legs of a guy like Jacoby. I feel Jacoby is significantly better in the clinch than Ledet. Ledet lets fighters control him against the fence, so he can rest, and he doesn’t do much there. Jacoby however is going to make him pay with knees and elbows from there. Ledet was able to takedown Mark Godbeer against the cage with a double leg. On top, I really don’t think Ledet is that great. He has decent passing ability & when he takes the back we’ve seen him hit rear naked chokes. In his fight with Godbeer, Godbeer went for a leg lock that exposed his back & Ledet took advantage. Off his back, he has gotten a couple armbars against low level competition but didn’t show much against Rakic. He did show a good guard early and was able to get his feet on the hips & bring his legs high to control posture. He will trap a wrist & attack with triangles. He showed no ability or urgency to get back to his feet. Ledet has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career.
This should be a striking match for as long as it lasts. Either guy could look for a takedown if they are in trouble or they are losing the striking battle, but overall, both guys prefer to strike. Jacoby is a kickboxer and Ledet is a boxer. Either guy could get knocked out, but Jacoby should have more tools in his toolbox to get that knockout and I would favor him to win in a decision as well.
We need a knockout here for either guy to score well. Both guys are strikers, so we probably won’t get many grappling points from this fight and neither one is going to be striking at a crazy pace to hit 100+ in a decision. Jacoby is my preferred play because he is more likely to get that KO, but if he doesn’t, I don’t think he will help anybody win a tournament so I will be underweight to this fight as a whole.
Winner – Dustin Jacoby via Unanimous Decision
Jason Witt $8,300 vs Cole Williams $7,900
Jason Witt
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Jason Witt will be looking to rebound from a worst-case scenario UFC debut. Witt entered the fight on short notice but showed nothing & was knocked out just 48 seconds into the first round. Witt is a veteran with seventeen wins, so I’m sure that loss has lit a fire under him. He is training out of Glory MMA & Fitness, a team that’s been on a roll in 2020. Witt is a wrestle, boxer & a pressure fighter. Witt holds his hands low has a wide base & tries keep the range but backs up opponents with effective pressure. Witt has a good straight-right to the body & head. He will throw some nice lead hooks and has a heavy uppercut. Witt is good at feinting the level change & coming over the top with hooks & overhands. When he backs fighters to the fence, he will mix knees into his combinations, swarm and try to take his opponent out. Witt has a pretty good rear leg body & head kick. Witt will switch stances & is pretty fluid. He has high volume. Witt is just very hittable though, and I question his durability. He will walk into straights & hooks. He throws a lot of naked kicks that get him countered. I have seen fighters wobble him with shots that don’t seem very powerful. Witt was knocked out badly in his last fight as well. Witt has been finished by strikes four times in his career. Witt has three knockouts himself.
Jason Witt is a grinder. He uses his striking to close the distance & hit takedowns against the cage. He has really good trips in the clinch. Witt has a good double leg, and solid control on top. He likes to sit inside opponent’s full guards, stay heavy and do just enough to not get stood up. He is a back taker & has pretty good rear naked chokes. Witt has pretty good takedown defense & can scramble. He is good at reversing position & getting back on top when he’s put on his back. Witt has good grappling cardio and can push the pace. That is going to be his big weapon in this fight. He needs to keep the pace high & melt Williams on the ground. Most of Witt’s finishes are rear naked chokes. Witt has seven submissions, all rear naked chokes. Seven of Witt’s nine finishes are in round one. He starts fast, goes for the finish, and if he can’t get it will cruise to decision mode. He does have good cardio & pushes the pace.
Cole Williams
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Chosen Few Gym
From: Iowa
UFC Record: 0-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Cole Williams is in a similar boat to Jason Witt. He also had a bad UFC debut where he was finished in the first round. Williams faired a bit better, landing a couple nice shots, but ultimately fell victim to a similar fate. Williams is 11-2 and has been submitted in both his losses. He is also an older guy at 36. He was on a nice win streak prior to Witt, and after a year away from the sport I’m sure he’s itching for a win. The issue with Williams is he’s older & fights so infrequently. He has been a pro for 12 years and only has fought 13 times. Williams is a dangerous striker in the first round. Williams has a nice jab, and heavy leg kicks. His straight-right hand is very powerful. He slips & rips very well. He caught Claudio Silva with a straight-right that rocked him. He has nice uppercuts. He will hold his hands low almost to goad opponents to throw so he can slip & counter. He has good head movement & decent hand speed. He is hittable though but had a solid chin from the looks of it. He took some bombs in his last fight and continued to come forward & stay in the pocket. Williams tires out as the fight goes on & becomes much more hittable. Williams has 4 KO/TKO’s & never been finished with strikes.
Cole Williams looks to be a pretty decent grappler. He is physical & has good body lock takedowns. He will control opponents in the clinch & attack with punches off the break. He has solid timing on singles & doubles. Against low-level fighters, I have seen him get dominant positions and finish fights in top position, but his top control isn’t the best. He does have a flying armbar submission in his career also. Williams has 4 submissions & was submitted in his one loss. Cole Williams does not have the best takedown defense. He also gives his back when he tries to stand up. To me, Williams has to go for broke in round one. He needs to walk Witt down, get in his face, let his hands go & try to knock him out. If he can get Witt to panic wrestle, he could land an uppercut & take Witt out.
This is a low-level fight and the loser probably won’t get another shot in the UFC. This should be a striker vs wrestler matchup with Witt having the wrestling edge. Williams has been fighting basically one time a year and he is now 36 years old. He could knock Witt out here and Witt is coming back only 4-months after being knocked out, but I am siding with the wrestler since I think he is the all-around better fighter who is more active and invested in the sport.
I hate this fight, but I think it could be an important one that goes overlooked. Nobody wants to roster either of these guys, but either could win somebody $100k. Williams could hand Witt his 5th KO and end up on the optimal from that. Witt could finish with a KO, sub, or a wrestling-based decision and score well from those. Witt is my preferred play because I think he is the better fighter and can dictate where this fight takes place. I just think coming back 4-months after being out cold is always a bad idea and maybe he gets KO’d in the 1st again. I will be overweight to both sides of this fight but more so the Witt side. I doubt either guy will be much more than 20% owned so it won’t take a lot to be overweight.
Winner – Jason Witt via Unanimous Decision
Sean Strickland $9,100 vs Jack Marshman $7,100
Sean Strickland
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170 (185 return)
Reach: 76”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 7-3
Last Fought: 2 Years
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -350
Sean Strickland is making his return after nearly two years away from the sport. Strickland suffered a bad motorcycle accident where he tore his patella tendon & quadriceps. The last time we saw Strickland he was knocking out Nordine Taleb in the second round. Strickland at 29 years old will be making the move up to 185 lbs for this fight. Strickland is 9-0 at this weight. Strickland is a long, rangy, technical kickboxer. Strickland has good lateral footwork and works behind the jab and left hook. He throws fast one-twos, and one-two, ones down the pipe. He is good at feinting and then pull countering with jab or one-two. He will throw uppercut to straight punch combinations. Strickland finds most of his KO/TKO’s that way. Strickland touches his opponents a lot, just pot shotting from the outside to a decision victory. Strickland will sit down on some hooks. He has a heavy right hook. Strickland has a nice rear leg kick. He has nasty low kicks, body & head kicks. Strickland is hard to get inside on, and his defense and footwork are good. He was knocked out with a spinning back kick early in the fight vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos, but that was it. Strickland has nine knockouts of his own.
Sean Strickland is the superior grappler in this matchup. In the clinch, Strickland uses his height well, and has good knees and elbows. Strickland doesn’t shoot for takedowns, but he has decent trips in the clinch. He will catch kicks & get takedowns that way. Strickland has a good sprawl. He is athletic and has good balance. When Strickland gets put on his back, he has a good butterfly guard. He doesn’t play Jiu-Jitsu really, and just looks to stand up. He did get dominated by Kamaru Usman. On top, Strickland has good control and a decent submission game. He passes guard well and has a good back take. Strickland’s top game is pretty good. He has all four of his submissions by rear naked choke.
Jack Marshman
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tillery Combat MMA
From: Wales
UFC Record: 3-4
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +290
Jack Marshman is making his return to the sport after a year away from the sport as well. Marshman looked bad his last time out and got dominated by Edmen Shahbazyan. He hasn’t looked very good throughout his UFC career. He has a 3-4 UFC record, but has lost 3 of his last four fights. Marshman is also 0-2 in the United States, with the majority of his fights being in Europe. He is a boxer & quick for the division. He likes to use a lot of feints and fakes from the outside as well as stutter step movement to disguise his entries & explode forward. He has decent head movement while closing the distance and he will throw full power overhands and hooks making him very dangerous in close range. Marshman has fast hands in the pocket and will throw three or four punches at a time. He does a good job of slipping & ripping in the pocket, and if he is to win I see him getting the finish in an exchange. Marshman has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage and stalking his opponents to the cage. He will throw nice jabs, straight punches and closes the distance with a nice lead uppercut. Marshman will throw straight punches and hooks to the body. He rarely throws kicks and will only throw a few leg kicks a fight. He has been finished four times by strikes and is a tough guy but has a questionable chin. He has 13 KO/TKO’s and can definitely finish the fight with one shot.
Jack Marshman is not a good grappler and a poor wrestler. He has very bad takedown defense and off his back he is not very dangerous. He has 20% takedown defense in the UFC and gets taken down very easily with double legs. When he was taken down by Shoe Face, he was quickly submitted. He did do a decent job of retaining half guard and offsetting balance by bucking in the mount. Ultimately though he gave his back & was submitted. He doesn’t look like he would have good get-ups. He doesn’t move his hips much & lays flat on his back at times. Karl Roberson, a kickboxer, was able to hit double legs & stay on top of him until the rounds were over. Marshman was submitted by Shahbazyan with a rear naked choke one minute into the fight. Marshman does have a few submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but those were a long time ago vs regional level competition. He doesn’t go for takedowns or try to get into the clinch. Even in his match against John Phillips who has terrible takedown defense, he couldn’t even take him down. If he hurts his opponent, he will get on top and has a few submission victories. He has 5 career submissions. Marshman slows down as well and he is most dangerous in the early rounds.
Strickland is one of my most confident picks on the card and I think he has a decent edge anywhere this fight goes. Marshman is purely a striker and he is the bigger guy with this being Strickland’s first fight at 185 lbs. However, aside from a knockout, I don’t see how Marshman wins this fight and Strickland should have a huge edge on the mat. He might not even be that outsized with him being 1-inch taller and having a 3-inch reach advantage, but the size and KO potential are my only worries.
Strickland is the preferred play on DraftKings. Marshman is KO or bust for the optimal lineup and that isn’t something I want to invest much in. One lineup at most for me, but Strickland is in play in all formats. I think he has a decent ceiling if he can get this fight to the mat and he should dominate the ground game. He can also rack up sig strikes or get a KO of his own, I just think his best chance at a high score is through the ground. I do want to be overweight on Strickland but the unknowns with him do worry me and it will keep me from being too overweight.
Winner – Sean Strickland via 1st round Submission
Adrian Yanez $9,200 vs Victor Rodriguez $7,000
Adrian Yanez
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Metro Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -400
Adrian Yanez is looking to make a splash in the UFC after a superb performance on the DWCS. Yanez was able to blitz through his opponent in the first minute of the fight. Yanez is a 26-year-old, 11-3 prospect coming out of Texas. His last two losses have been split decisions to current UFC fighters in fights that could have gone either way. Yanez is a legit boxer. He likes to pressure fighters, force them backwards and work off the jab & double jab. He will jab his way into range and then follow with a straight or uppercut. He is good at putting long combinations together with the hands and he attacks the body well. He plays with his hands down a lot & has a lot of trust in his eyes and head movement to slip and return with hard shots. He will throw some front kicks to the body, some high kicks, but primarily is a boxer. Yanez’s style does leave openings for him to be hit & I’m a bit worried about the kicking game of Rodriguez potentially giving Yanez some issues. Yanez is very tough though, has a great chin & cardio and will eat shots and just keep walking fighters down. Yanez has 6 KO/TKO’s and definitely has pop in his hands. He isn’t a one-shot guy, but he can put fighters out. Yanez is tough & has never been finished by strikes.
Adrian Yanez is not a guy who will look for takedowns. He wants to spray and brawl. Yanez has good takedown defense. He’s shown that against strong wrestlers like Domingo Pilarte & Miles Johns. Yanez has good balance and strong takedown defense against the cage. He holds his hands low, so he can dig underhooks well. Yanez has fast hips and good sprawls also. He can over extend on his punches & get taken down that way. Yanez is good off his back though. He will get butterfly hooks & quickly work his way back to his feet. He doesn’t accept bottom position or play the guard game much. Yanez does have an armbar & triangle victory early in his career. Yanez has great cardio & can tire fighters outs by getting back to his feet & pouring on the pressure. He has to have confidence after his destruction on the contender series & is the fighter with the full camp.
Victor Rodriguez
Age: 28
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: AK-49 Martial Arts
From: Alaska
UFC Record: 0-0
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +325
Victor Rodriguez is stepping up here on very short notice to take on Yanez. Rodriguez is a 7-2 prospect coming out of Alaska. He took a four-year hiatus after back to back losses, but since returning in March of 2018, he’s 4-0. He has finished all seven of his pro wins. On the feet, Rodriguez is pretty quick and agile. He will switch stances, and kicks well from the outside. Rodriguez has nice low kicks. Rodriguez’s hands are not very good. He will throw slaps & very wide, looping punches and such. He does have some straight shots he can throw from both stances. He will throw some overhands. Rodriguez likes to throw this long right hook. Rodriguez will go to the body with punches. Rodriguez will throw some decent body & high kicks. His defense on the feet looks bad, but he will eat shots and keep coming. Rodriguez doesn’t look like he hits too hard, but he has finished all his wins by KO/TKO.
Victor Rodriguez is an average grappler. He will close the distance against the cage and hit singles & doubles. I’ve seen him land some explosive slams. Rodriguez on top will throw some nasty ground & pound. He has heavy elbows and hammerfists. His last fight he finished an 8-1 opponent with nasty shots on the mat. Rodriguez was taken down & dominated a bit in that fight. He has been submitted by rear naked choke in the past. His cardio doesn’t look bad.
Yanez’s hands are legit and it’s going to be clear who the better striker is here. Rodriguez is going to need to look to use his wrestling and that is his path to victory. He is taking this UFC debut fight on short notice though, so he might not have the gas tank for as much wrestling as he would need to win a decision so maybe a GNP finish is his best shot at the upset. Yanez looked like the real deal though and I think he gets a knockout before round 3.
Yanez is my preferred play, and he might be a core play for me. It is currently 12:50pm ET on Thursday and this fight has still not been added to the player pool, which I am hoping keeps him from being one of the highest owned guys. Might just be wishful thinking though because I think he has a decent shot at an early KO and scoring 100+ points here. I like him in all formats, and he is a guy I want leverage on. Rodriguez is in play as well because he is going to have to wrestle to win and he might even need an early finish with him taking this fight on short notice and not knowing what his gas tank will look like with a wrestling-heavy game plan. I might make 1 lineup with him, but Yanez is my guy here and I think he gets a drop and KO plus however many significant strikes he can land.
Winner – Adrian Yanez via 1st round (T)KO
Alexander Hernandez $9,300 vs Chris Gruetzemacher $6,900
Alexander Hernandez
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Factory X
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -400
Alexander Hernandez is getting back on the horse after getting knocked down again in his last fight. Hernandez was finished by Drew Dober & showed he isn’t quite on that level yet. The UFC noticed that as well, giving Hernandez a significant step down in competition here against Chris Gruetzemacher. Hernandez has great movement. He keeps a wide stance and does a great job of using smart, forward pressure. He is very good at cutting off the cage & staying in opponents’ faces. He has nice, inside leg kicks & front kicks to the legs & body. He will throw nice, rear leg head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand, and crash with hook combinations after he lands it. He will throw the straight-right hand as a counter as well. He likes to throw a rear leg body or head kick to a right hook combination. He does a great job of switching stances mid combination after he lands a straight punch. He will land a straight-right hand, switch stances & leap into a powerful left hook. Hernandez’s aggression & forward pressure on the feet is what he needs to bring. He can sometimes get a bit over aggressive & leave himself vulnerable for counters. He has a great chin & took some absolute bombs in his last match. He suffered his first TKO loss in his last fight. He has 4 KO/TKO’s & big power.
Hernandez is an excellent grappler. He is very strong in the clinch, and muscles opponents around. He will control fighters against the cage and throw good knees and elbows. He has a great double leg & body lock takedown. He is very good at using his strikes to get inside & he closes the distance very quickly. It’s hard to defend the clinch entry because he will also come in with the hooks & it’s hard to see which one is coming. He has good doubles against the cage. When he takes opponents down, he does a great job of turking the legs & not allowing opponents to use their full guard. He will try to slowly move to mount with the legs turked. He will work in an opponent’s guard with short punches to the body & head. He likes to take the back also & go for rear naked chokes.
Chris Gruetzemacher
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Florida
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 2 Years 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +325
Chris Gruetzemacher is making his return to the octagon after over 2 and half years away from the sport. He has had multiple injuries force him out of fights. Gruetzemacher is 34 now, and probably has seen his better days. His last fight was probably the best performance of his career. He dominated a legend in Joe Lauzon from pillar to post. Gruetzemacher is a dog & a guy who will always be hard to fight. He kind of reminds me of an off-brand Bryan Barberena. He has elite cardio & tries to break guys with pressure and pace. Gruetzemacher is slow, but he has a great chin and eats shots to land his own. He likes to get in the pocket, hand fight & land tight, short shots. He has a nice jab that he will double, and even triple up on. Gruetzemacher will throw double jab, twos. He will land nice, short hooks on the inside. He puts good combinations together on the inside. He will attack the body effectively with punches, front kicks & knees. Gruetzmacher’s best weapon is probably his low calf kick. He will throw it early and often & and just accumulates damage on guys. His striking is not really very good, but he’s tough to deal with. He is always coming forward and throwing volume. On the inside, he has nice, short hooks, uppercuts and elbows. He hand fights well and will rip the body. If fighters come into a fight with Gritz and underestimate him or have questionable cardio they could be in trouble. You can hit him with a bat and he will still come forward. He has technically never been finished, but he was knocked out by Artem Lobov on the ultimate fighter. He doesn’t have big power, but he can put it on fighters. He battered Joe Lauzon so badly his corner did not let him come out for the third round. Gruetzemacher has 7 knockouts in his career.
Chris Gruetzemacher is not a great grappler. He has poor takedown defense. He isn’t the best athlete, so his reactions aren’t the best. The takedown shots don’t even have to be too explosive, and fighters can still get them if they’re timed well. Gritz will lose composure & give up his hips a lot. He throws a lot of naked kicks that can easily get caught. Once he’s taken down, he is pretty good at stalling, and landing small. annoying shots to distract opponents. He doesn’t have great get-ups, but he will control posture and force referee stand ups. In his fight with Lauzon, he was able to defend the takedowns. He got on top of Lauzon and landed some decent ground & pound. Gruetzemacher won’t go for takedowns, but he has no problem going to the ground with some of the best grapplers in the world. He was willing to go into the guard of fighters such as Davi Ramos & Joe Lauzon. Gritz has three armbar submissions in his career. He has been submitted by rear naked choke twice in his UFC career. He does tend to give his back in scrambles. He has been submitted in all three of his pro losses.
Gruetzemacher looked great in his last fight and Hernandez looked bad in his last fight. Their opponents had a lot to do with that though and I was hoping to get a decent number on Hernandez because of the recency bias. Vegas was on top of it though and I do agree with Hernandez being a big favorite because I think he is better everywhere in this matchup. I would have lined Hernandez 3-1 here, so there isn’t any real value in the current line, but he is the pick to get his hand raised.
Hernandez is my preferred play because I think he is more likely to get a knockout as well as more likely to land multiple takedowns in each round. The only issue is that he is the most expensive fighter on the card, and he has to do one of those things to score well and end up on the optimal. I think he is in play in all formats and he will make my player pool even if I have 10 or less lineups, but he won’t be a core play at all and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him score ~65 DK points in a decision win and that won’t help us at all. Gruetzemacher is an OK punt if you want to go there but I’d prefer it for cash games and hope he can score well in a loss. I don’t see him finishing Hernandez and I don’t think he has a big ceiling in a decision, but he is cheap, and he can get 10x if he gets the judges’ nod. I probably fade him personally and I won’t be playing any cash games this week.
Winner – Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision
Bobby Green $9,000 vs Thiago Moises $7,200
Bobby Green
Age: 34
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Pinnacle MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 8-5-1
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -310
Bobby Green is a stance switching fighter with good boxing skills. He holds his hands low and uses a lot of head movement and shoulder rolling to avoid punches. He has a great jab to the body & head and will follow that jab with a hard, right hook, or straight-right hand. He has a nice overhand right. He has a nice check left hook. He likes to throw oblique kicks to the knees and front kicks to the body. He catches kicks well and will return with counter punches. He will throw nice round kicks to the body & head, and he keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents. He lands 5 significant strikes per minute. He will walk opponents down with his hands by his side, countering and landing hard body shots. He is hittable with overhands, but he has a great chin, and rolls with a lot of shots lessening the impact. He has the ability to get dropped and hurt badly such as vs Lando Vannata and recover and perform. He has 8 KO/TKO’s and has only been finished twice with strikes.
Bobby Green is a former wrestler, and a strong grappler. He is very athletic and can close the distance into the clinch quickly. He does a good job of digging an underhook, pushing his opponents to the cage and landing knees to the body & elbows to the head. He was landing nasty punches and elbows in the pocket against Eric Koch. He will attempt body lock takedowns, and he has good slam double legs, but he rarely puts much effort into getting the fight to the ground. He has great takedown defense and he is extremely hard to hold down. If fighters can put him on his back he isn’t very dangerous, and they don’t have to really worry about getting submitted. On top, he has good submissions. He has a nice arm triangle & good rear naked chokes. He has 9 career submissions, but only one in the UFC. He has been submitted two times himself. He has phenomenal cardio, and usually is stronger in the third round than the first.
Thiago Moises
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-2
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +255
Thiago Moises is coming off a good win versus Michael Johnson. He has a good jab, and a very nice straight-right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks; Big leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound during and after throwing them. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head, and he had a pretty nasty head kick in his last win to setup the finish. He doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. He has to have his feet planted to strike & when opponents pressure him, the only time he throws shots are when his back is against the cage & he’s flat footed. Fighters are able to go first & land combinations along the cage on him. He will try to sit down & land hard counter hooks or straights to back his opponents up & then can go forward with combinations of his own. He will just circle the octagon at times & be very passive, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power and he can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped and submitted fighters. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Thiago Moises is a submission specialist, and a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter, and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock takedowns and he will shoot doubles against the cage. In recent fights, he’s landed several well-timed single & double legs. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers submission over position. His top control isn’t the greatest. In his last fight with Michael Johnson, he shot a single leg, pulled guard, and jumped on a leg lock ending the fight. It was kind of a sacrifice submission after getting worked in round one. Moises does have 6 career submission.
Both guys can hang in either area, but Green has the edge on the feet and Moises has the edge on the ground. Moises isn’t a great wrestler though so it’s hard to count on this fight hitting the mat, and Green does have a big enough edge to favor him in this matchup. This betting line does look a bit too wide and it almost swayed me into picking Moises here. I’d still say dog or pass but the pick is Green.
Green is my preferred play in this one. Moises will need a submission to have any chance at the optimal lineup because I don’t see him scoring highly with any stats other than the win bonus. Green can score high in any win though, so he is in play in all formats here and he scored 96 and 125 DK points in his last two fights. He is live for a knockout here and he can put enough volume on Moises to score well in a decision so he is a guy I would look to go overweight on this week. Moises will make my pool by just because he is cheap and is live for a submission, but he isn’t a guy I want to take an overweight approach on hoping that he can catch a sub when he isn’t a good wrestler.
Winner – Bobby Green via Unanimous Decision
Greg Hardy $8,800 vs Maurice Greene $7,400
Greg Hardy
Age: 32
Height: 6’5
Weight: 265
Reach: 80.5
Gym: American Top Team
From: Florida
UFC Record: 3-2-1
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -330
Greg Hardy is a great athlete, very aggressive and dangerous. Five of Hardy’s wins have ended quickly in round one. Hardy’s striking looked much improved in his last fight. He was using much more lateral movement & good head movement and was slipping just out of the way of punches. Hardy has very fast hand speed. He had a nasty jab & left hook, and a blazing one-two. He will throw some brutal low kicks & nasty uppercuts. Hardy’s straight-right hand vs Sosoli was a piston. He has nasty round kicks to the body. He was mixing in high kicks, superman punches, and I think he’s a very dangerous striker. In his match with Volkov, he made it competitive. He landed some decent leaping left hooks. He has one punch power and is extremely fast. Hardy will still lean back with his chin high at times, but he is good at pull countering. His defense can look a little suspect at times. He has to respect the speed and power of Greene. He has eaten some big shots and kept coming and looks as if he has a strong chin. He has 5 KO/TKO’s.
Greg Hardy likes to get his work done with the hands but is clearly working on his grappling. He shot in on a nicely timed double leg on Volkov & had some control time against the cage. In this fight I feel holding Greene against the cage would be a good game plan. Hardy obviously is a great athlete with fast hips, good balance & base. When fighters shoot takedowns on him, he is good at sprawling & hammering punches into his opponent’s face. Hardy has a nice whizzer he will use to counter takedowns. Hardy has short range power & has put multiple fighters out with hammerfists & short punches as they try to get in on his legs or in the clinch. In his fight with Allen Crowder, he did get a knee caught and taken down. Hardy didn’t look very knowledgeable off his back. He stayed calm but allowed Crowder to transition easily & even get the crucifix position. Hardy is very explosive & used his athleticism to buck out of the bad position but didn’t show great technique on bottom. Hardy had some time in top position in that fight as well. He was able to show good submission defense, pass the legs, and almost got to side control. He didn’t show good top control and allowed Crowder to belly down & get-up. In Hardy’s match with Juan Adams, he sprawled on a single leg, and landed about 30 unanswered shots before the fight was stopped. Adams didn’t move at all & basically just gave him the win. Hardy does slow down pretty significantly as fights go on, but he is finally getting some third-round experience. That should help him moving forward.
Maurice Greene
Age: 34
Height: 6’7
Weight: 255
Reach: 82”
Gym: The Performance Compound
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 4-2
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +270
Maurice Greene got back in the win column taking out Gian Villante by decision. On the feet, Greene is a solid athlete. He is tall, long & tries to fight long. Greene will switch stances and has good speed and athleticism for a HW. Greene has a strong jab and has hurt opponents with it before. He throws some good one-twos. Greene has a nice, tricky shovel uppercut. Greene throws a lot of low kicks; Inside, outside, low kicks, and oblique kicks to the knee. In Greene’s match with Sergey Pavlovich he looked horrid. He was throwing the same naked low kick, or low kick after the jab, and getting countered clean. He got rocked multiple times & finished in the first round because of it. It showed poor fight IQ because he couldn’t adjust after getting hit. Greene will throw some nice front & round kicks to the body. Greene will come forward with some dangerous blitzes closing with knees & elbows inside. Greene’s defense is not good. He will throw bad hooks inside or from too far out. He will drop his hands after he throws kicks & is just super hittable. Greene has been rocked in almost every UFC fight he’s been in. Greene is skilled offensively, but just lacks something. Greene has two KO/TKO’s in his career. His chin isn’t the greatest, and he has been knocked out three times including his kickboxing career.
Maurice Greene is a dangerous submission grappler. He doesn’t have the wrestling, but he is dangerous off his back & when fighters shoot in on him. Greene has a good kimura he uses to counter takedowns attempts. His takedown defense needs a lot of improvement though. When he gets taken down, he has a dangerous guard. He will attack with triangle chokes and is good at creating scrambles to get back to his feet. Greene has five career submissions with three triangle chokes. He showed toughness & good submission defense, but ultimately succumbed to an armbar in round two. He was fighting a legend in Alexey Oleinik so there is no shame in that. Greene’s cardio is not the greatest, but he keeps a high pace for a HW.
Hardy should have the edge in the striking in this fight and maybe it’s enough to favor him more than 75% of the time like the betting line indicates. However, Greene has the edge on the ground and if he can get it there, he is live for a submission upset. Taking that into account, it’s hard to line Hardy as a 3-1 favorite and this is a dog or pass fight in my eyes. Greene can keep this fight close on the feet as well, so I wouldn’t count him out there, he just has a real edge on the mat. My pick here is being swayed by the odds and I think Hardy wins this more than he loses it, just not more than 75% of the time which is what -310 indicates.
This is probably going to be an important fight. Vegas has this fight -260 to end ITD and with these big boys that could be in round 1. I do think Hardy needs the KO in round 1 or 2 to even have a chance at the optimal here so my preferred play is Greene who can get there with any win, possibly. I think he is in play for the submission as well, he just isn’t a good wrestler at all, so I don’t trust him to get it there. This fight would be one I target in more than half of my lineups and I think Hardy will be one of the more popular plays on the card, so I will get my leverage on Greene and go underweight to Hardy. GPP only for both sides of this fight though.
Winner – Maurice Green via 2nd round Submission
Kevin Holland $8,200 vs Charlie Ontiveros
Kevin Holland
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Team Lutter
From: Texas
UFC Record: 6-2
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -140
Kevin Holland is getting that money man. He’s back in the octagon again, just one month after a tough fight with Darren Stewart. Holland came into the Stewart fight injured & then took a lot of damage in the third round as well. I am not sure how he could be 100% here, but he must be confident he can still get the win. Holland has become a fan favorite since joining the UFC, but even though he has a stellar record of 6-2 he has underperformed. Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos, and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside, outside leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg, hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks and heavy, rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. His striking & the knockout was a thing of beauty in his last fight. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He will also throw shots like little jabs, or non-power shots when he is too close to his opponent and gets countered with bigger shots. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to setup his punches & going forward himself. He has 8 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a black belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow, or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in an opponent’s guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & and get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last win. He is dangerous with submissions and has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas, and attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense is terrible. He is taken down in the clinch or with wrestling shots far too easily. He does have the ability to get out of deep submissions & scrambles well. Holland in his last fight was actually dominating the striking and winning on the ground but he gassed out. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time.
Charlie Ontiveros is taking this fight on 3 days’ notice and this is a tough UFC debut matchup. He has 6 losses on his record and all of them are by (T)KO. He only has 3:25 minutes of fight time since 2017 and he is only getting this shot because he is ready to step up last minute. This is going to be a KO or bust fight for him, and I don’t see any advantages for him in this fight. He does have some nice kicks, flying knees, and power in his hands so I wouldn’t completely count him out, but Holland is the pick to win ITD.
At $8.2k, Holland is basically going to be our free square assuming he is a big favorite when the lines come out. We aren’t gaining any advantages by having him, but it could end up being a “no Holland no cash week” so I will probably be in line with the field or close to all-in on him. I’m not against a lineup or two on Ontiveros because nobody will have him and if he does get the KO then most of the field will be dead with all the Holland exposure, so it will be an easy way to jump the leaderboard if he does get a crazy upset.
Winner – Kevin Holland 2nd round (T)KO
Bryce Mitchell $8,500 vs Andre Fili $7,700
Bryce Mitchell
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Barata MMA
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 4-0
Last Fought:
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -145
Bryce Mitchell has been on an absolute roll of late. Not only has he been winning in the cage, but outside the cage as well. He has become one of the more vocal up and coming stars in the sport. He will be getting a step up in competition & stiff test in Andre Fili. Fili is that guy that is a fringe top 10 fighter who the UFC gives up & comers as a test. The thing about Fili is he is still young himself and improving. On the feet, Mitchell has a funky style. He has his hands down, uses a karate stance & tries to be in & out. He will throw a lot of front leg sidekicks to the body & head and has developed a solid straight down the middle. He sat down Bobby Moffett with that punch. Mitchell doesn’t really like throwing hands though. He will trade hooks in the pocket and has a decent uppercut. He is just sloppy in exchanges though and looks uncomfortable. He doesn’t hit the hardest either, so he can be out gunned at times in fire fights. He has decent round kicks, but really, he uses his striking to setup takedown entries. Mitchell has no knockouts in his career.
Bryce Mitchell is a dangerous grappler, that’s his thing. He has steadily improved his wrestling, but the Jiu-Jitsu aspect is where he truly shines. Mitchell does a good job of timing single & double legs, especially if opponents are near the cage. He is good at getting his hands connected and dumping opponents. In top position, Mitchell is very aggressive and loves to take the back. In his last match, Mitchell showed great ability to pass. He was able to mount and land some heavy shots. He showed great riding ability, transitioned to multiple, dangerous positions and eventually got a twister on him. Mitchell destroyed Charles Rosa on the ground just dominating him in top position. Once Mitchell does take the back, he will use multiple attacks as well. He has a nasty rear naked choke and will flatten opponents out, lock it in and finish the fight. He also likes to go to the crucifix position from taking the back and attack armbars & the rear naked while throwing ground & pound. Mitchell’s takedown defense is not the best, and he almost welcomes being on his back. Mitchell will attack with kimuras to counter takedown attempts but hasn’t been effective with that in the UFC. Mitchell will attack immediately off his back, and you can see the heavy tenth planet influence. He will attack with a high or rubber guard and has a nasty triangle choke. He has very flexible legs and can create armbar or triangle opportunities when opponents don’t think he can. He is also very good at attacking with elbows from inside his guard. Mitchell has very nice half guard sweeps, and always is looking to create scrambles. Against high level wrestlers with good top pressure, he can struggle a bit and get held down. In his fights with Brad Katona and Tyler Diamond, he struggled with this & gassed hard. Mitchell tends to give his back to stand up & Katona was able to catch him in a rear naked choke in the third round. Mitchell is a fighter who starts fast & usually fades. Eight of Mitchell’s 9 submissions happened in the first round. Mitchell is 4-0 in decisions in his career, but both his decisions in the UFC have been very close. His cardio definitely is not as good as Fili’s. Mitchell is going to go out there hard & try take out Fili out in round one.
Andre Fili
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 9-6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Andre Fili got the win last time out, taking out another prospect in Charles Jourdain. The fight was very hairy, as he was dropped and almost finished, but he used his veteran savvy and improved grappling skills to pull through. Fili is a fighter I have to respect. He entered the UFC at a very young age, and even after a lot of setbacks, and being pegged as a top 15 gatekeeper he has still kept that confidence and vigor to go after the title. Fili has clearly improved leaps and bounds from when he entered the UFC. Fili is a rangy striker. He has a nice jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw hard, inside leg kicks, body kicks, & head kicks. He will fake the jab & throw an overhand right. He is good at darting in with a straight punch & angling off immediately. He is always trying to walk opponents into straight punches. He will throw a jab, uppercut combination. Fili has a nasty high kick that he puts fighters out with. His block & returns were excellent in his last match & he showed super sharp, fast counters. He has fairly good movement, but he isn’t the most athletic fighter and opponents can cut him off. He isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & opponents can counter with straight punches. Fili is still durable & will eat shots no problem. He Is dangerous with kicks himself and has 8 KO/TKO finishes. He has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Andre Fili has really leveled up in his grappling after being submitted a couple times early in his career. He showed that off getting a decision win due to his wrestling vs Jourdain. Fili will definitely need those skills vs a fighter like Mitchell. Fili is improving as a grappler, and actually has a really nice double leg. He has great timing on it & explodes in quickly. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he will try to jump on the back when opponents try to stand up. He is long & it gives him an advantage in the clinch. He will land nice knees to the head & body and is very hard to takedown. He does a good job of framing and throwing knees to the body. On top, he isn’t great and really just holds position. His takedown defense has looked very good recently, he stuffed all of Denis Bermudez’s takedowns. He was able to jump on Michael Johnson’s back and almost locked in a rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 in his career. He has been submitted twice himself. Fili has solid cardio & will push through fatigue to get the win.
Mitchell has quickly turned into my 2nd favorite grappler in the UFC behind Charles Oliveira. Two fights ago, Mitchell pulled off the 2nd ever Twister submission in the UFC. In his last fight, he mopped the floor with his opponent for the entire 15-minutes and all his opponent was able to do during that time was land 5 sig strikes. I am picking Mitchell to beat most of the division on the ground at this point, but Fili is a tougher test there and he has the edge in the striking as well as experience. Mitchell is going to need to get this fight to the mat to win, but I could see him winning 2 rounds with grappling or pulling off a submission. If Mitchell can’t get this fight to the mat, he is going to lose.
I like both sides of this fight and I don’t even have a real preferred play of the two. I won’t be starting any lineups with this fight, but I am fine with this fight being one of my last spots based on who fits salary wise. Mitchell has a path to a high score on the ground, and Fili has a path to a high score if this doesn’t hit the ground. I also think we can fade this fight because it is the people’s main-event and ownership will come with that. If I am making just 1 lineup and I had to start with one of these guys, Mitchell would be my pick. If I am making 20 lineups, I would guess each guy makes about 5 lineups.
Winner – Bryce Mitchell via 3rd round Submission
Uriah Hall $8,600 vs Anderson Silva $7,600
Uriah Hall
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 79.5”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 8-7
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -230
Uriah Hall is getting the shot of a lifetime here. The career underachiever is fighting one of the best fighters of all time in a main event. Hall is undefeated since moving to Fortis MMA. Hall has a phenomenal jab, and great lateral movement. He was fantastic controlling the distance with his jab against ACJ. He has a nice left hook, a nasty straight & overhand right, & when he lands clean he can put fighters out cold. He will throw nice inside & outside leg kicks and will attack the body with round kicks. He has a great jumping spinning kick to the body or head. He will throw regular spinning back kicks to the body & head as well, and he is not someone fighters want to strike at range with. He is extremely fast and explosive & is always one punch or kick away from changing the fight. He has big power, and when he wins it’s usually by knockout with 13 KO/TKO’s in 18 wins, including TUF. He has a good chin and the ability to take punishment, and come back with his own, but he doesn’t have great defense when he gets hurt. He will back up to the cage and stands right in front of opponents trying to throw back. It makes it possible for opponents to tee off on him against the cage. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, and 3 times in his last 4 losses.
Hall is not much of a grappler, and definitely prefers a range striking fight. Hall will rarely go for takedowns or look for the clinch. He has good lateral movement and is dangerous with knees and kicks making fighters hesitant to shoot in on him from a distance. When he does get taken down, he doesn’t have great defense, and was finished with G&P by Mousasi, and hit with huge shots against Jotko. He will attack with submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but overall his submission game is not super dangerous. His submission defense is not bad. He was able to survive with ACJ on his back for over 10 minutes in his last fight. He has also never been submitted in his career.
Anderson Silva
Age: 45
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Chute Boxe Academy
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 17-6-1
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +190
Anderson Silva is obviously old, and past it, but beating Silva still means something. Silva has lost 6 of his last 8 fights, but in his six losses, five were former UFC champions. Silva is returning once again from an injury and a year and a half layoff. He is 45 years old, and this is going to be his retirement fight. Silva arguably is the greatest striker in UFC history. He tends to start fights very slow. He is patient & gets his reads before starting to let go. Anderson is always locked, loaded, and ready to counter. Silva has a nasty jab. When Silva starts to move forward behind his fakes & feints, he is still extremely dangerous. He is hard to read and will explode into spinning or jump attacks. Silva still will look to throw a lot of jabs, fakes & feints to set up kicks. He has good front & round kicks to the body. He will throw out a one-two and has a decent right hook in the pocket. He still will try to use his head movement & counter, but he has been getting hit more & his counters come slower. He does a good job of grabbing his opponent’s hands and dragging them down then throwing head kicks, and still has dangerous kicks from unusual angles. He has relied heavily on keeping fighters at kicking range & using his length, but in this fight, he is going to be at a reach disadvantage against a fellow kicker. Silva hasn’t scored a knockout since 2012 and is 1-4-1 in his last 6 fights. He does have 22 career knockouts. He used to have an iron chin, but his durability is diminished. He was finished twice by Weidman and rocked many times by Bisping. He has only been KO’d twice in his career.
Anderson Silva used to be known as a devastating clinch fighter. He destroyed Rich Franklin with knees in the Muay Thai plum, and if he still gets that position I feel he’s still dangerous. In his last fight against Derek Brunson, he was grabbing the single collar clinch & just staying there allowing Brunson to connect with some big punches. He has never been known as a wrestler, but I do see the slight potential he may try to take Hall down here. Silva is a judo black belt & has decent wrestling. He has decent double legs & body lock takedowns. When he gets on top, he does a great job of standing in the guard & raining down accurate punches. He is a black belt in BJJ, but not a huge submission threat. He did get a triangle off his back against Chael Sonnen and attacked with kimuras prior to that. He also got a rear-naked choke against Dan Henderson. His takedown defense was good vs Brunson, but I don’t think he will need it here. He still has decent overall cardio.
Anderson Silva in his prime was one of the best, if not the best fighter of all-time. He felt untouchable back in his day, and he will go down as one of the GOATs whether he wins or loses this retirement fight. Now he is 45 years old and his only win since 2012 was a very close decision that could have went the other way. This is his easiest matchup since that last win of his but at this point, I think it is too late. Hall should be the faster, more powerful striker here and this fight should stay standing. I think Silva would have smoked Hall back in the day when people were making comparisons of the two, but now I have to lean with the younger fighter with more to offer.
Both sides are obviously in play because this is a 5-round main event. I think Hall has the better chance at being on the optimal because I think he is more likely to get a knockout and the earlier it is the better it would be for his scoring. However, my preferred play is to fade this fight and hope that it goes to a decision. If this fight does go all 5-rounds, then I don’t really see either guy having a great chance at the optimal and they should still be 80+% owned by the field. If I am making 20 lineups then both guys will make my pool, but I wouldn’t mind fading this fight in more lineups than I use it in. Same goes for cash games, I don’t mind the full fade there and I would rather fade this fight over stacking it in cash. I do think Hall has a good shot at the knockout though so he is the guy I will get more exposure to and with Silva being the bigger name he might be one of the most owned fighters on the card.
Winner – Uriah Hall via 4th round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown & be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building & I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend & enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on Twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks & predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice & fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on Twitter at @BigMarley3.
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