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The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for Las Vegas

The worlds best stock car racers took a trip out west, as they set their sights on Las Vegas Motor Speedway. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Sep 15, 2019; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – This is Harvicks race to lose. He starts P1 at a track where he has five top 5 runs in a row. He also seems to thrive on the left side tire combination being used, that was last used at Michigan (where Harvick won a double header). All the signs point to a dominant Harvick performance.

Brad Keselowski – Las Vegas is Keselowski’s playground. In his last 10 starts there – 3 wins, 7 top 5s, 10 top 10s and an average finish of 3.6. None of those are typos. I double checked. Kes is an absolute stud and has had really good runs with this tire. Even better – he starts 12th and offers a small amount of place differential. If this race gets away from Harvick, I suspect Kes to be the benefactor.

Martin Truex Jr – You’d have to do a lot a work to talk me off of MTJ, cause this is a great spot for him. He starts P11, so lots of place differential. He has two wins here in the last ten, and has been the most consistent driver in the series over the last couple months. I think he competes for a top 5 and could even sneak in a win if they nail the setup.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is out of the playoffs, but that has a lot to do with the track selection than anything. This Penske ride is still plenty fast and Blaney is much more comfortable at Vegas than the last three tracks. He starts 15th, and should be able to ride in the top five and compete for a win.

 

Fade

Timmy Hill 
Chad Finchum 
JJ Yeley
Gray Gaulding 
Josh Bilicki 
Quin Houff 
Joey Gase 
Brennan Poole

Value Plays

Ryan Newman – If your a frequent DFS Nascar player, Newman has probably screwed up a couple lines for you over the last couple weeks. BUT – he is in a great spot this week. He averages a top 15 over the last 10 at Vegas, and even though he is priced at $7400 I think it is worth it against a pedestrian 27th place starting spot.

Matt Dibenedetto – Matty D costs $7900, so hes not REALLY a value play, but he should be worth the price this week. He was very solid on this tire this year, and ran 2nd at Vegas when we were here earlier this year. He is out of the playoffs, so they are just trophy chasing and I think he has real shot at hanging with the top 7.

Cole Custer – This is simply a mispricing. Custer is a a solid driver and this is A+ equipment. He finished 19th here early this year, but that was one of his first cup races ever. He is much better now, and even won a race with this tire combination early this year. Look for Custer to hang in the top 15 all day.

John Hunter Nemechek – JHN has shown an ability to put this car in the top 20 time and time again. Of course, he is a rookie and is prone to mistakes. But I don’t mind thanks to his great starting spot and price.

Worth Mentioning

William Byron is priced a little to high to love, but he starts way back with a top ten car.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.