It’s Bristol, baby! Races have been a little on the slow side as of late, so lets hope we get some short track action this Saturday night. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Apr 16, 2018; Bristol, TN, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) leads midway through the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Brad Keselowski – Kes, who won the Bristol race in June, will start P1 and clearly has this short track package under lock and key. He should dominate the early part of the race easily and compete for a win.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney is in a tough spot, pretty much needing a win to move into the next round of the playoffs. Fortunately for him, he has a real shot. Penske clearly has the field beat with the package, Blnaey was fast in June before crashing and led 72 laps in the All-Star race. He will probably have the full attention of the Penske shop this week, and should be very strong against his 14th place starting spot/
Kyle Busch – Hard not throw KB into the mix here. His finishes at Bristol, including the All Star race: 4-2-4-1-20-1-1 with 474 laps led. Even if this is an off year, Kyle will always be a threat at Bristol and maybe, probably not, but MAYBE his struggles will push his ownership down.
Jimmie Johnson – It feels nice to be able to tout Johnson at Bristol again :). He is super viable this week as he starts 24th. He has been solidly inside the top at just about every short track this year and should have no problem doing the same tonight. He is trophy chasing, so he could employ some boom or bust strategies – but I am willing to take that risk considering he was top four in average running position here in June.
Fade
Garrett Smithley
Timmy Hill
Gray Gaulding
Reed Sorenson
Joey Gase
Josh Bilicki
James Davison
JJ Yeley
Quin Houff
Value Plays
Bubba Wallace – Great spot for Bubba. He rolls off P27 at a race he has finished top 20 in 80% of his starts. His cars are better than ever, and he has legitimate top ten potential (he finished tenth in June, and probably would have won an Open stage if he didnt get wrecked). Bubba thrives on short tracks, and he could be a factor Saturday night.
John H. Nemechek – JHN finished 13th here in June, and while I think that is likely more of an outlier, he is more than capable of running in the top 20. His average running position at short tracks in 2020 is 22nd, so a little attrition will allow him to score well against a 31st starting spot.
Ryan Newman – Newman is always a good play at Bristol, where he has been top 15 every race since 2017. He is even a BETTER play when he starts 25th. I suspect he runs solidly inside the top 20 with top ten upside.
Ty Dillon – If you are looking to be a little contrarian, take a look at Ty, whose average running position on short tracks in 2020 is about 20th. Even he performs that well Saturday night he scores 30 easily. Not the best play in this range, but a potenial GPP winner.
Worth Mentioning
Chase Elliott won the All-Star race and led 88 laps here in May. I feel he is being overlooked this week and could provide some value. Clint Bowyer is also incredible at Bristol. You can probably get some very cheap leverage on Kurt Busch, who has finished in the top ten four races in a row here.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.