Welcome to the inaugural postseason of this article series. In this article series, I am going to break down each playoff game on the slate based purely on pitch profile match-ups. The goal of this series is to locate the gems for our smaller slate/single-game slate contests that can provide an edge and lead us to some GPP takedowns! My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started. Let’s take a look at the colors that you will see below. When you see numbers highlighted in red, they are numbers that benefit the pitcher. Numbers highlighted in blue are ones that benefit the hitter, while the ones that are left white are in a middling range that might give a very slight edge to the hitters.
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
We get Jose Urquidy taking on Jose Berrios with the game taking place at Target Field in Minnesota. The game opened with a run total set at 7.5 runs and Minnesota a -145 favorite.
When we look at the Astros hitters against Berrios, we see that they have some strong ISO numbers against his FB velocity. The issue with relying on this is that everybody in baseball can hit fastballs to a degree. As a team, they hit the curveball decently at the top of the order. We see that Bregman and Correa love to hit change-ups from RHPs but Berrios only throws it 11% of the time to RHBs. The curveball is going to be the important out pitch here as the lineup has decent numbers against it, with Bregman having the best overall profile against that pitch. If Berrios relies on his sinker heavily, then Michael Brantley is about the only one he needs to be careful with.
Jose Urquidy throws his fastball quite a bit, which is surprising given that it’s not exactly overpowering. If he relies on his fastball-change combination against the LHBs, then I would guess that Kepler, Arraez, and Rosario are going to be in great spots to succeed. I am going right back to the Kepler train here and I actually hope he slides back into the lead-off spot. When it comes to attacking RHBs, Urquidy will go with his fastball-slider/curve combinations. I want to say that either Nelson Cruz or Miguel Sano will break out of their mini-slumps against that combination. Sano just hits everything hard.
Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics
The Athletics have opened as a -124 favorite on the road here. They will rely on Dallas Keuchel in this game 2 match-up, while the Athletics will hand the ball to Chris Bassitt. This game has a total set at 7.5 runs.
Keuchel has been really good this season, while the A’s have struggled in September. The Oakland bats haven’t hit LHPs very well this season as they have just 15 HRs in 2020. There are a few RHBs that can hit the sinker-slider combination of Keuchel. The guy that stands out the most for me here is Mark Canha. He hit .333 against LHPs in 2020 and his .352-.280-.258 ISO’s against the sinker, slider, change-up combination puts him in a great spot. Keuchel throws those 3 pitches a combined 70% of the time to RHBs. A couple of guys that have some upside based on some strengths are Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, and Stephen Piscotty.
We just saw the White Sox hit 3 HRs on Tuesday but now they get a tougher match-up. Bassitt has been really freaking good this season. We see above that Abreu and Moncada are in the best spots overall. Robert has some interesting upside but a very limited sample size. Grandal should provide some upside after hitting an HR on Tuesday. Encarnacion HOPS off of the page here. Pairing him with Abreu in our FD builds makes sense for GPPs.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
This game will see Hyun-Jin Ryu against Tyler Glasnow. The game opened with a total set at 7 runs with Glasnow and the Rays as -140 favorites in their home park.
Glasnow is absolutely nasty and he racks up strikeouts. The Blue Jays bats have not had a ton of success against him, aside from hitting 4 HRs. He is mostly a fastball-curveball SP so we need to look at that combination the most. When we look at that, we see two guys that stand out. First, we get Bichette and his ISOs of .556 and .390 against the FB-Curve combination. The second guy that stands out is Hernandez as he has ISOs of .222 and .400 against the FB-curve combination. Guys like Guerrero and Grichuk are sneaky GPP fliers who have strong ability against one of Glasnow’s 2 main pitches.
This chart above is really plain and boring to look at. The Rays use a lot of bats and a handful of them have very limited sample sizes at the MLB level against LHPs. We should see a lineup change against Ryu so I will be updating this later. As it sits right now, I really have very little interest in Rays bats against Ryu. We see guys like Adames and Margot have routes to success. Take a look at the numbers that Renfroe offers in this spot. I know Ryu can be nasty but Renfroe is going to offer us a TON of upside. Michael Brosseau is intriguing as well, thanks to his strong overall numbers against LHPs.
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
We get a weaker SP match-up than Tuesday’s (not like it mattered since the most runs were scored in this game). Tanaka gets to take on Carrasco as a -120 favorite. This game has a total set at 8 runs.
That appears to be a lot of red for us to stare at. While the Indians should destroy the fastball thrown by Tanaka, they are going to struggle MIGHTILY with the splitter. The biggest thing with the splitter is Tanaka’s control. If he has control of that pitch, it’s nearly impossible to layoff. A couple of guys who could see some success if they are able to lay off of the splitter are Lindor (who is struggling) and Franmil Reyes. Reyes is by far the best in terms of pitch profile match-ups for the Indians. Jose Ramirez has impressive BvP on his side and he does have a path to success against Tanaka’s FB.
Carrasco has a really tough match-up as the chart above is LOADED with blue. He is basically a fastball-slider to RHBs and guys like Voit, Judge, and Torres are in great spots. Another guy that intrigues me here is Urshela as he hits the ball pretty hard against the repertoire of Carrasco. We might see Sanchez slide into the lineup and if we do, I will get this above chart updated before the games get started.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Brewers will run Brent Suter out and hope to get him through 3 or 4 before handing it off to somebody like Freddy Peralta. Walker Buehler gets the ball for the Dodgers as a sizable favorite. He and the Dodgers are -235 in a game with a total set at 8 runs.
Looking at the above chart makes me both cringe and drool at the same time. We know that the Dodgers are HUGE favorites and Buehler is one of the best young SPs in the game of baseball. I see a TON of red but I also see a TON of blue. That tells me that we might have a spot that could surprise for GPP purposes. We see that the Brewers struggle collectively against hard fastballs with Yelich and Vogelbach being the guys that have success. You notice that Yelich is blue across the board. That should intrigue us but realize he hasn’t been the same player this season. Guys like Braun and Hiura look really strong against the secondary offerings of Buehler.
Suter throws what might be the softest fastball in all of the MLB. The Dodgers bats don’t have much for history against pitches that slow. Against RHBs, Suter throws his FB-Changeup combination 93% of the time. When we look at those two pitches, we see that AJ Pollock stands out the most with guys like Betts, Turner, Taylor, and Hernandez flashing success against one or the other. When it comes to the LHBs, Max Muncy is the one that stands out the most against the FB-sinker combination.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Trevor Bauer and the Reds head to Atlanta to take on Max Fried and the Braves. The Braves have opened as a -125 favorite and the total has been set at 7.5 runs. This is a great SP match-up to go with a couple of powerful offenses.
I am really curious to see what kind of a lineup the Reds run out there are they are just so LH heavy. I have a projected lineup in the chart above but I am fairly confident that it won’t be that way when the lineup comes out. When we get an official lineup, I will update the chart above. We see the guys that I would have projected to have upside here, Castellanos and Suarez, plus a guy like Moustakas who has massive upside, no matter the pitcher’s hand. You can see a guy like Votto lacks pop against LHPs, even though he has solid wOBA’s against the pitches that Fried throws. For me, Senzel and Aquino are guys that could make a big difference in GPPs. Just realize that when the RHPs come in from the bullpen, a guy like Aquino gets PH for by Winker or Akiyama.
This is the match-up that could make or break the entire slate. The Braves offense, especially at home, can put up runs in a hurry. Bauer has elite strikeout stuff and will tell the hitters about it after he strikes them out in big spots. This is going to come down to whether he executes or not as any mistakes can be punished. The best spots to attack Bauer will come at the top of the order in Acuna and Freeman. Guys like Ozuna, Albies, and d’Arnaud have paths to success but they are a bit more volatile. Of those 3, Albies is the one that intrigues me the most with his SB upside.
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
I am up late and we still haven’t seen an official line get posted here so that tells me we have the potential for impactful winds at Wrigley. Alcantara going up against Hendricks is an interesting match-up. Alcantara has been somewhat sharp this season and I believe basically overachieving. Hendricks has been exceptional when pitching at Wrigley. I will update the below sections once I figure out the weather in Chicago. We have a total set at 8 runs with the Cubs as a -160 home favorite.
We see a TON of red here in this match-up for the Marlins. We know their offense isn’t very good and it lacks some pop, especially at the bottom. Hendricks does a great job of limiting hard contact against him and the Marlins don’t make a ton of hard contact in general, at least from a power perspective. Via the pitch profile, Jesus Aguilar is the only one that I want to actively try and get shares outside of some stack, depending on the weather update. The wind appears to be blowing across the field to right.
This chart is the opposite of the Marlins one above. We see a TON of blue as we get a powerful Cubs lineup against Alcantara. I want to attack him with LHBs for the most part. Kyle Schwarber profiles EXTREMELY well in this spot. Happ is another guy that profiles well, as long as he avoids swinging at the hard fastballs of Alcantara. We know that guys like Rizzo, Contreras, and Baez are always in play for stacking and one-off purposes. The last guy I have on my list is one that doesn’t actually stand out based on pitch profiles. Kris Bryant returned from injury and started swinging the power stick to end the season. I just hope the wind isn’t blowing in!
St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres
The Cardinals travel to San Diego to take on Chris Paddack and the Padres. St Louis will run out Kwang-Hyun Kim with SD being a -170 favorite. This game opened with a total set at 8 runs.
So we have a clear set-up here. If the Cardinals can attack Paddack’s fastball, they are going to have a ton of success. If they take those fastballs for strikes and get fed a steady diet of change-ups, they are in trouble. Do you see all of the blues in the FB column? Pair that with the fact that Paddack allows a wOBA of .471 and an ISO of .431 against his fastball at the MLB level. Paul Goldschmidt lines up perfectly from a pitch profile standpoint. I do think that Carpenter could surprise here and do some damage on the road.
Kim is somebody that is tough to figure out. He allows contact but limits hard contact. He recently had his worst start and he faces a Padres lineup that can do damage against LHPs. His curve-slider combination can get hit hard at times and that could lead to some rough innings against the likes of Tatis Jr, Machado, and Nola. Wil Myers is another guy that I could see putting up a couple of extra-base hits and if they come with men on, he certainly could finish with multiple RBI in this game.
There you have it ladies and gentlemen, the debut of the Pitch Profile Breakdown article! If you have any questions make sure you tag me in the chat. We can discuss thoughts on individual match-ups! As you can see, there are paths to success for each team playing today!