The 2020 NFL season is finally upon us after a tumultuous offseason filled with external factors and uncertainty that the NFL season would even play in 2020.  Welcome back to the Shark Chronicles and the introduction of the Milly Maker Weekly Edition where I chronicle weekly GPP stacks, stack choices, and defenses that may help you take down the Milly Maker!  Those that have read my articles and most recently my 50+ page e-book, know that we provide a different level of research and analysis to lineup deconstruction and this weekly article.

Deconstructing lineups is a vital component to a DFS player’s success and it is why DFS provider sites have staff members who research winning lineups of the DraftKings Milly Maker contest and report their findings to their site’s members.  In my research and written in my expansive e-book on what it takes to win the Milly Maker, I have chronicled winning Milly Maker lineups to determine the optimal lineup combinations that can win the Milly Maker contest.

Become a DFS Army member today and you will receive my “Shark Chronicles How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker Contest Vol. 2” e-book for free with your DFS Army membership.  It’s packed with over 50 pages of quality content, and you will not find a more comprehensive breakdown on the winning mindset, DFS psychology, lineup construction, and position-by-position breakdown of what it takes to win the DraftKings Milly Maker contest.  Become a Member Today! 

 

Top Milly Maker Games to Target

Per Position

Targeting the right games to construct your Milly Maker lineups is vital to your success within the contest.  Being on the right weekly games is as important to the success of your lineups as is being on the right plays for the week.

Quarterbacks

When looking at games to target for our Milly Maker lineups, it’s not only important to target games based upon a set of factors, for the QB position we need look at the projected Vegas favorites with potentially -7 spread, but -3, -10.5, -6. We need to look at point totals for games at 45, 46, 48, or 49.5.  Target bottom 6 passing defenses.  Target the 1 PM games whenever possible

Games for QBs that Fit the Bill:

• San Francisco vs. Arizona – (SF Vegas Favorite, -7 spread, 47.5 points total, ARI DEF Rank 27th, ARI DEF Pressure Rank 15th)
• Minnesota vs. Green Bay – (MIN Vegas Favorite, -3 spread, 46 points total, GB DEF Rank 10^th, GB DEF Pressure Rank 12th)     Under Radar Game Special
• Las Vegas vs. Carolina – (LV Vegas Favorite, -3 spread, 47.5 points total, CAR DEF Rank 11^th, CAR DEF Line Rank 3rd)
• Seattle vs. Atlanta – (SEA Vegas Favorite, -2 spread, 49 points total, ATL DEF Rank 25^th, ATL DEF Pressure Rank 28th)
• New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay – (NO Vegas Favorite, -3.5 spread, 48.5 points total, TB DEF Rank 12^th, TB DEF Pressure Rank 20th)

Running Backs

For Running Backs look for projected Vegas favorites, -3.5 spread (target -3, -7, and -6 spreads), 46.5 or greater point totals where 49.0 was the sweet spot.  Then target 46.5 and 42.0 points totals.  Target defenses whose DEF rank is 25^th or worst and DEF Line rank of 25^th or worst.

Games for RBs that Fit the Bill:

• LA Chargers vs. Cincinnati – (LAC Vegas Favorite, -3 spread, 42.5 points total, Cincinnati 28^th Ranked DEF vs. run, Cincinnati 24^th Rank DEF Line, CIN 29^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs)
• Baltimore vs. Cleveland – (BAL Vegas Favorite, -8 spread, 48.5 points total, CLE 30^th Ranked DEF vs. run, CLE 26^th Rank DEF Line, CLE 25^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs)
• Philadelphia vs. Washington – (PHI Vegas Favorite, -6 spread, 42 points total, WAS 24^th Ranked DEF vs. run, WAS 29^th Rank DEF Line, WAS 13^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs)
• Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville – (IND Vegas Favorite, -8 spread, 45 points total, JAC 31^st Ranked DEF vs. run, JAC 27^th Rank DEF Line, JAC 26^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs)

Wide Receivers

During the 2019 season, the defensive teams that winning Milly Maker lineups targeted the most with their WRs were Tampa Bay, Miami, NY Giants, Detroit and Atlanta.  If you look above at the games under the QB section you will notice the following games to target and that Tampa Bay and Atlanta were two teams of the five games we need to target.  We also need to target games with spreads of -3, -1.5, -7, and -10.  Additionally, we need to target games with point totals of 46.5, 49.5, 47 first then target point totals of 44.5, 48, and 49.

Games for WRs that Fit the Bill:

• New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay – (NO Vegas Favorite, -3.5 spread, 48.5 points total, TB DEF Rank 12^th, TB DEF Pressure Rank 20^th, TB DEF Rank vs. WR1 17^th, TB DEF Rank vs. WR2 19^th)
• Seattle vs. Atlanta – (SEA Vegas Favorite, -2 spread, 49 points total, ATL DEF Rank 25^th, ATL DEF Pressure Rank 28^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. WR1 18^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. WR2 30^th)
• San Francisco vs. Arizona – (SF Vegas Favorite, -7 spread, 47.5 points total, ARI DEF Rank 27th, ARI DEF Pressure Rank 15^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. WR1 27^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. WR2 13^th)
• Detroit vs. Chicago – (DET Vegas Favorite, -3 spread, 43.5 points total, DET DEF Rank 17^th, DET DEF Pressure Rank 31^st, DET DEF Rank vs. WR1 13^th, DET DEF Rank vs. WR2 29^th) Under Radar Play – Anthony Miller at 1.19% ownership

Tight Ends

At the tight end position, we need to target Vegas favorites with spreads of -7 first, then -3, -1 and -1.5 where applicable.  The point totals we need to target are 44.5, 48, 46.5, 47.5, and 45.5.  In 2019, the Arizona Cardinals were the cheat code during the first quarter of the season, we can see how that progresses in 2020, especially with the signing of Isaiah Simmons.

Games for TEs that Fit the Bill:

• New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay – (NO Vegas Favorite, -3.5 spread, 48.5 points total, TB DEF Rank 12^th, TB DEF Pressure Rank 20^th, TB DEF Rank vs. TE 28^h)
• Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville – (IND Vegas Favorite, -8 spread, 45 points total, JAC 22^nd Ranked DEF, JAC DEF Pressure Rank 6^th, JAC DEF Rank vs. TE 30^th)
• San Francisco vs. Arizona – (SF Vegas Favorite, -7 spread, 47.5 points total, ARI DEF Rank 27th, ARI DEF Pressure Rank 15^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. TE 32^nd)
• Minnesota vs. Green Bay – (MIN Vegas Favorite, -2.5 spread, 45.5 points total, GB DEF Rank 10^th, GB DEF Pressure Rank 12^th, GB DEF Rank vs. TE 24^th)

Top Milly Maker Defenses to Target

Defenses can make or break your lineups ability to make the top 100 of the Milly Maker, let alone the top 10.  Defenses are the least researched position of your lineup each week, because as DFS players we are so obsessed with so many other aspects that go into our lineups and defenses become the last position we roster and the defense that fits salary wise is who we go with.  Selecting the optimal Milly Maker defense is not about luck, but about out researching the touts!

My Top Defenses on the Main Slate:

When looking at defenses, salary is certainly a factor, and a defense could be the highest salaried defense and carry the highest percentage of projected ownership, I say FADE!!!  But… then you will see the highest salaried defense carry low projected ownership in an amazing spot, I say THANK YOU!!!  You have to FADE GROUP THINK when determining the most optimal defenses to roster weekly.

• San Francisco vs. Arizona – Load up here, SF is home, carrying a projected ownership of 1.89%, SF is 2^ndranked DEF in pressures from 2019, going up against an O-line that gave up 50 sacks in 2019.  Yes Arizona has Nuke, but the defensive front of SF is formidable.  I will take them at 1.89% all day long!
• Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets – In 2019 the NY Jets O-line gave up the third most sacks in the league, Buffalo was better than middle of the road D-line in pressures.  In addition, in 2019 the NY Jets were the second worst team in the league in O-line adjusted line yards, and Buffalo was top half in the league in the respective category.  Plus, Buffalo carries a projected ownership of 2.92%.
• Las Vegas vs. Carolina – In 2019 Carolina had the 5^th worst pass protection in the league.  We shall see how the new coaching regime has made a difference on the offensive front for Carolina, but Las Vegas D-line should get some push on the interior O-line of Carolina.

Stacks

To win the Milly Maker, stacked lineups are the key to success.  During the 2019 NFL season, 100% of the winning lineups had a stack in their lineup construction.  When determining if a game stack or a QB/WR stack is is best, honestly it depends on the given week and how Vegas projects the games to play out.  When constructing your lineups, DO NOT FORCE a particular stack into your lineups when all of the variables you in a different direction.

Games that Fit the Bill to Game Stack or Simply Stack:

• New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay – NO side of the ball, I favor a game tertiary stack of Brees, Thomas, Cook with a run back with Godwin. Thomas is not carrying the highest ownership projection on the slate; Cook is carrying a sub 1% projected ownership and Godwin is sub 6% ownership.  You can do a 4×1 game stack and add in Emmanuel Sanders on the NO side of the ball.
• Minnesota vs. Green Bay – MIN side of the ball, I am really liking this game and how it could play out with a non-conventional stack of Cousins, Thielen and Cook. You can run it back with Adams and be perfectly fine.  I love Cook in this game, as Green Bay was a sieve at the defensive front giving up 4.96 adjusted line yards in 2019, the only worst team in that defensive category was Miami Dolphins.
• Seattle vs. Atlanta – I know, I know, Seattle on the road has historically not done well, especially when they travel to the east coast. But… there’s just something about the numbers from Vegas that is projecting this game for me to be a 20-30% stack ownership on the Seattle side of the ball.  Julio Jones is currently carrying a higher projected ownership percentage and that makes complete sense given his matchup, but as we know Julio has busted in the past in spots like these.  For me in this stack, I am loading up on Lockett vs. Dennard and while more ownership will flock to Gurley in his first game with ATL, I like the other side of the ball with Carson.  ATL was middle of the road in adjusted line yards given up in 2019 at 4.29.  Carson barrels most of his runs over the left end and consequently ATL is the 26^th worst defense against the run on the left end.  Additionally, Carson crushes over on the right end side of the O-line and ATL is the 25^th worst defense against the run on the right end.  Like I said, I will have ownership in this game, albeit on Seattle side of ball or game stacks with Calvin Ridley more than Julio.

Roster Construction

Over the course of the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons, 65% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered an RB in the FLEX position.  This is extremely valuable information to start your roster construction with.  You can essentially work to include an RB in and around 65% of your Milly Maker lineups in the FLEX position, while allocating a mean of 10.7% to 11.98% of your salary cap to the position.  In the last 3 NFL seasons, the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered a TE in the FLEX once, and when you question “should I try a TE in the FLEX?”, my answer to your question will be data does not lie and so my answer would be NO.  When constructing your Milly Maker lineups, do not overthink things, keep it simple and artfully construct your lineups with a process in mind of solving the 1,000 piece puzzle most optimally!

 

About the Author:

Burns273 – Adam Burns, aka AdrocksBucksWinItAll on DraftKings, a Fantasy Sports Writers Association Member, got his start in DFS during the 2011-2012 NFL season.  He has been a DFS Army staff member since the end of the 2015 NFL season where he originated the site’s Research Station for MLB and NFL, and the WR vs. CB chart which he continues to evolve and implement each NFL season for members of the site.  He is the author of the site’s prized Shark Autopsy Report (re-titled Shark Chronicles for future articles and books), and recently released the Shark Chronicles – How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker Volume 2, over 50 pages of research chronicling the 2017-2019 NFL seasons.  He has been featured on DFS Army’s Off the Chalk and Wolfpack podcasts.

Burns has taken the DraftKings Milly Maker contest by storm, placing in the top 10 of the Milly Maker contest three times since week 17 of the 2018 NFL season.  He has numerous top 20 finishes in the Milly Maker contest.  He is a 2-time DraftKings King of the Beach qualifier and FanDuel’s NBA Championships Live Qualifier, and has numerous large and small field GPP wins and top 10 winnings in Esports, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, NBA and NFL.  Burns was a top 300 ranked NFL DFS player in 2019.  Follow me on Twitter @Burns273DFS and #burns273 in Slack.