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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 9/27/20 – Las Vegas

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  We head out west to Las Vegas this week, in a return to both Sunday racing and a 1.5-mile track.  There’s a bit we need to remember as we switch gears once again, so let’s go over the odds and ends to put ourselves in a good spot this weekend!

As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

It’s hard to believe, but it’s actually been over two months since we’ve been at a 1.5-mile track.  And wouldn’t you know it, the one we were at (Kansas) is one of two that are most similar to Las Vegas (the other being Charlotte).  A lot has happened since that race, so while we shouldn’t use it as a direct comparison as to what to expect here, it should at least give us a good idea of where to start.

I suspect things to play out fairly similar to what we saw last week – not a whole lot of chaos, with most of the playoff contenders camping out in the top-10 or so.  Speaking of which, let’s see how they might impact this race.

Round #2 begins

The start of round 2 gives us a soft reset on the remaining drivers, and this year is quite a bit tighter coming into this round than what I remember from other years.  The bottom 9 drivers are all within a 22 point spread, and seeing that one bad finish can quickly put you behind, these drivers are essentially coming into this race in the same position.

Click me for full size

As you can see, the top three drivers do start with a more comfortable pillow than the others, but they aren’t immune to an upset.  A bad race and wins going to the bottom drivers could do the trick, and that wouldn’t be the craziest way for these next three races to unfold.  In other words, don’t use a narrative that they don’t need to show up and compete.  They absolutely will, and they’ll want to lead every lap possible.

As for the bottom drivers, they’re all in a spot that every single point matters, and that means every single position in the field matters.  We have Talladega and the Roval coming up next, which is one wildcard and one that’s not too far behind, so this race will be their best chance to give themselves any sort of safety moving forward.

The playoff narrative more or less puts every one of these drivers in play on FanDuel, regardless of where they’re starting, as they’re going to need to run as close to the front as possible to grab as many stage points as they can.  Don’t be afraid to pivot these drivers around in your GPP pool at the very least

The Field

Dominators

With 267 laps in this race, our need for dominators (or at least the number of them) goes down.  You could look at using two of them for most lineups in all formats, though I don’t mind rolling out a few solo lineups.  I don’t really think using three will be the ticket here, and would recommend against it, unless you’re trying to get really different in one of those huge GPPs.

Harvick gets the pole and it’s very hard to argue against him here.  He’s a pretty obvious choice in all formats on all sites.  Even if he somehow doesn’t lead the early race, he’ll be there for the middle/late race as well, giving him a chance to lead at any point.  He’s led anywhere from about 50 to 200 laps in four of the last five races here, and I fully expect more of the same.  You can pivot around in GPP, but for cash games, start here.

Truex and Logano are my favorite secondary dominator options.  Truex is always in play at any 1.5-mile track, and Logano hasn’t been too far behind Harvick here (actually has one more win over the last several races).  I don’t really see them being solo dominator options unless Harvick has issues, so I would prefer to use them as a secondary option to go with him.  For cash games I would probably take Truex, as a top-5 and a handful of fast laps (on DK) will return more than enough cash value, even if he doesn’t lead any laps.

After that we have our usual options – HamlinKeselowski, and Elliott – and a few others, like Blaney and Bowman, who could all be used as a secondary dominator pivot.  I’d like them in roughly that order, though I would put more stock into Truex and Logano this week.  I would probably stick to using these pivots in GPP.

Finally, there’s Kyle Busch who will start next second.  Since we’re back to a normal track (and no practice), I would prefer to fade him, but you could still use him in GPP if you wanted to pivot away from Harvick.  Or, if you’d like, you could stack these two and hope Kyle can get things going in the second half of the race.  Be sure it’s GPP only though, as we won’t need him for cash games.

Studs

We have a handful of options here this week, some with a lot of place differential upside, some with solid finishing position potential that may see less ownership due to their starting position.  Those starting a little deeper in the field will be a bit more useful on DK, but don’t forget about those in the playoffs that we mentioned above, as they could be useful on FD.

The first that stands out is Byron, who starts 28th.  While his history looks to be a bit hit-or-miss, he does know how to jump into the top-10 at these tracks, it’s just a matter of him staying out of trouble and away from the bad luck that tends to find him.  He’s priced up a bit (though not as much as Bell had been at previous races), but even so, he’s a strong option for all formats if you can afford him.

His teammate, Johnson, offers the same top-10 (or better) upside (he finished 5th here back in February).  He’s seemed to find himself in a slump here this past month, so I’d probably lean GPP here if you can help it.  I would put Jones in the same boat; solid top-5 upside, though I would feel better about using him for cash games if you landed on him.  If not, he’s a very solid GPP option on all sites.

DiBenedetto is mostly the same play as Johnson/Jones, but he’s cheaper and has slightly more place differential upside.  He finished second here back in February, and is one of my favorite GPP options on the slate.  I really like the idea of paying up to him over Stenhouse, who we all know is anything but reliable.

Nothing really stands out with the rest here – AlmirolaBowyerKurtAustin, and Bowman.  They have the playoff narrative, which makes them useful pivots on FD, and they do at least have some lead lap upside (maybe 25-50 laps max) if they get gifted the lead, so they could be worth having on DK just in case.  I do believe they would have a better chance of being a GPP winner on FD over DK.

Sep 15, 2019; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) during the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Value studs

These guys are always interesting, and this week is no different.  This section almost always starts with BellReddick, and Custer, and again, that won’t be any different this week.

Bell will probably be the most popular of the group since he starts 26th.  He’s fairly inexpensive, so you could probably just roll him out for cash games, as any sort of a modest top-15 will return enough cash value.  For GPP, however, I don’t mind going against the grain and fading him here.  Reason being, he seems to be very hit-or-miss at these 1.5-mile tracks.  He had some top-10s (Charlotte and Kentucky), but when he’s not finishing there, he’s finishing in the 20’s or 30’s.  He’s not racing for a championship, and since he already has his ride set for 2021, I’m not so sure that he’s going to push for another top-10.  Maybe he does and a fade will backfire, but since he’ll probably be popular, I think it could be a good place to find some leverage.

Reddick and Custer, however, my gut tells me they have a better chance at getting that top-10, so I’d prefer to make the pivots to get more exposure to these two over Bell.  I love them mostly equally, but I’d have to give a slight edge to Custer for the better place differential (though that also means Reddick will be lower owned).  Any way you slice it, I expect to see at least one of these three in the winning lineup.

Newman looks good on paper; not too expensive and starts fairly deep.  He had some decent mid-teens finishes at some 1.5-milers (13th at Texas, 14th at Atlanta, and 17th at Kentucky), so I think he would have a better chance of paying off here over some of the other races lately, where he hasn’t look very strong.  Bell would probably be a little safer for cash games, but I don’t mind Newman if you’d rather use him.  Either way, solid choice for GPP.

Stenhouse starts 33rd, which again gives him a ton of upside because he does have legitimate top-5 upside (he finished 3rd back in February).  As always, he has no floor, so buyer beware.  I’d prefer to keep him in GPP if at all possible, but if we find out he’s going to be chalky, we may just have to eat it (hey, at least he’s not super expensive).

Value drivers

None of these guys really pop off the page for me, but they’re all inexpensive and could see a top-15 here.  Possibly better, like a top-10, should the race really go in their favor, like what Wallace did with his 6th place finish in February.

Now, before you go crazy over him, don’t forget to look at the other stats from that race.  His average running position was 22nd, and he only completed 8 laps inside the top-15.  That means he can take advantage of some cautions and pit strategy should they fall in his favor, but it’s not saying he can overpower other drivers.  Be sure to check stats like this with other drivers, too!

Anyway, the ones to target here would be KensethTy DillonWallaceNemechekBuescher, McDowell, and LaJoie.  All things considered, I probably like them in that order, though I would try to get at least some exposure to all of them.  Again, all of them have enough car for a top-15 if they’re on their game, and could work towards a top-10 if they play their cards right and get lucky.

Well, I would say LaJoie is more of a top-20/top-15 ceiling guy, but starting 31st mostly balances that out.

Punts

These guys don’t really excite me much, especially since we don’t need a lot of top-end dominator heavy lineups.  I think we’re going to see long green flag runs again, which will really hurt these guys.  Play them if you really really want to, but I think fading them all would be the better option (basically everybody from Suarez on down, though I would give him a slight edge over the others).

Quick recap

Dominators (1-2 for all formats on all sites)

  • Primary dominator Harvick, Kyle Busch
  • Secondary dominators – Truex/LoganoHamlin/KeselowskiElliott, Kyle Busch, Blaney/Bowman

Studs

  • ByronJohnson/Jones/DiBenedetto
  • Pivots – Almirola/Bowyer/Kurt/Austin/Bowman

Value studs

  • Bell/Reddick/Custer
  • Pivots – NewmanStenhouse

Value

  • KensethTy DillonWallaceNemechek/Buescher/McDowellLaJoie

Punts 

  • Suarez, then all the rest (or just fade them)

Closing thoughts

It’s a basic 1.5-mile track, but the fact that we haven’t seen one in over two months makes it a bit of a novelty.  Use this to your advantage, since people may still be in niche track form, and several of the drivers we targeted there may not see much success here.  Remember to research comparable tracks (i.e. Kansas and Charlotte), and don’t base everything off of recent performances at tracks that don’t carry over.  And of course, mind those pivots.  Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!