Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head back to Bristol for another short track race (honestly, I never get tired of these), this one being even shorter than the last. That means more laps, which of course means we’ll be looking at this race a little bit differently than the other short tracks in recent history. It’s an elimination race too, which should add to the fun. Let’s dive right in, shall we?
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Bristol Motor Speedway
Ah, good ol’ Bristol. The faster of the half-mile tracks we see, this one never disappoints. Because it’s so short, that means we get a bunch of laps – 500 to be exact. That makes our dominators a lot more valuable than at most other tracks, which means that we’ll probably want to lean more towards stars & scrubs lineups this week, rather than the more balanced approach we used at Richmond. That also means that we’ll want to give some considerations to the punts here, where we avoided them last week.
Elimination race #1
In case you forgot how the playoffs work here, this race is considered an “elimination race.” There are 16 drivers currently in the playoffs, and after this race, the bottom 4 will drop off. The other 12 will advance by points or a win. A good breakdown entering this race can be found here.
So what does this mean for us? The bottom drivers, from 11th on down (Kurt, Bowyer, Byron, Custer, DiBenedetto, and Blaney) all need to show up and have a very strong showing, and ideally, win. This can give any of them a bump for the playoff narrative, but I think it would help Kurt and Bowyer the most (as a co-dominator). Still, feel free to give any of them bumps if you’re looking for a reason to get a little funky here (I think the other four would be better used on FanDuel than on DraftKings).
For the rest of the playoff field, I think this may hurt most of these drivers’ dominator upside, since they don’t really need to go out and lead the whole thing. Bristol can quickly turn chaotic, and none of these drivers want to put themselves in a bad spot in the standings. However, given the spot that Elliott and Kyle Busch are in, I think those two would get a bump for dominator upside (it doesn’t hurt that they were already favorites to do it).
The Field
Dominators
Given we have 500 laps, our dominators are going to be very important this week. For cash games on both sites, I would look at having two dominators in all formats. For GPP, using two dominators will probably work for most instances, but you could go up to three dominators on DraftKings, or if you’re feeling brave. If you’re trying to be different (and risky), you could also try some solo dominator lineups on either site.
Given his history here, and the fact that he has the pole, Keselowski will be our first option. He’s a threat to lead anywhere from 50 to 200 (or more) laps, as well as fight for the win. Use him as your primary dominator in cash games, and for GPP, you can use him in normal two or three dominator lineups, or even as a solo dominator.
After him, the strongest choices I see are Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin (roughly in that order). Given there are so many laps, you can mix and match any of these guys, or you can use them as pivots to each other, or to Keselowski. I think it’s more or less a lock that one of these four will be in the winning lineup, and there’s a strong chance that we’ll see two of them in there (possibly three, but that’s starting to push it). These would be the only other drivers I would suggest using as a solo dominator, if you build any lineups like that.
After that, look at Harvick, Logano, Truex, or even Austin Dillon/Bowman to use as pivots (also in that order). While none of them are as strong as the other options, they do have some positives; Harvick has been so strong all year, Logano will start in the front row (just because he and Keselowski are teammates, doesn’t mean he won’t fight him early, as we’ve seen several times now), and Truex has a huge ceiling when he does lead. While I don’t like their chances of leading nearly as much as the main targets, they do still offer huge upside at reduced ownership.
As for Austin and Bowman, neither of them are particularly strong options, but as we saw last week, Austin may have a chance of leading some laps and holding a strong spot. Bowman is definitely a dart here, but nobody will be on him, and he could be last week’s Austin, so don’t be afraid to at least sprinkle these two around.
Apr 15, 2018; Bristol, TN, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers race during the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports
Studs
We have a few strong options here this week, with a handful of them offering dominator upside. I wouldn’t use them as a primary dominator or anything, but they make good supplemental options that don’t have to dominate to pay off, but it would be a nice touch. Given their starting positions, a lot of these guys make good FanDuel options/pivots, especially these first three.
I’m speaking of Bowyer, Blaney, and Kurt. I love Bowyer for all options, so feel free to use him in cash games. Blaney has a ton of lead lap potential, but as you’ll see in my notes, he’s about 50/50 in terms of good/bad finishes, so I would lean GPP if at all possible. I know the Domination Station loves him, so I won’t argue against him in cash games if you really want to use him there. Finally, Kurt is very similar to Bowyer, just with less lead lap potential. Still, starting 13th gives him a little bit of place differential upside to go along with his top-5 potential. These guys are good to go on all sites, but I think they could be really useful on FanDuel.
Next up are our two place differential options, Johnson and Jones. Putting last week behind us, Johnson looks to be a strong option here, finishing 3rd back in May, as well as many races here over the years. This may also be his last real chance to grab a win before he retires, so don’t expect him to just roll over and be content with a top-5 finish. I like him in all formats. As for Jones, he offers the same exact upside, but he’s a bit riskier, so try to keep him in GPP only. As far as pure upside goes, these two are equal and offer more than most in this price range (more than anybody who doesn’t lead any laps).
Our last options here are DiBenedetto, Almirola, and Byron. Now, I don’t dislike DiBenedetto here, as he put on a really good show last year and he needs a strong finish. I wouldn’t play GPP without him, and he can be of use on both sites. I look at him as sort of a riskier Bowyer/Kurt, though his upside is right up there with them.
As for Almirola and Byron, well…they have a lot of work to do here. With their poor history, both are borderline fades, but if you want to take some shots with them, I don’t hate sprinkling them around in large GPPs. Just don’t play them in cash games!
Value studs
Wallace is the clear favorite for this group, with his top-10 upside and what looks to be a top-20 or so floor. Starting 27th and being a bit underpriced goes well with that, so go here for all formats as your main option in this price range.
Nemechek and Bell are both very strong options to consider as well, as either a pivot to Wallace or to use stacked with him. Both offer at least top-15 upside, while Bell has the edge with his fairly strong top-10 upside. Considering their starting positions, they’re about equals in terms of upside for us. If you need/want one for cash, I do like Nemechek better, but you would be fine with either one (just be sure you’re taking Wallace first in cash).
Reddick and Custer offer the same finishing position upside as Bell, though it’s a little harder to get behind them. Still, they’re underpriced for the fact that they have a realistic shot of grabbing a top-10 (Custer needs a very strong race to keep his playoffs dreams alive), so be sure you’ve got exposure to them in GPP! They can be used as pivots or as a stacking option with any of the other value studs.
Value drivers
For my money, McDowell leads this next section. While he has been a little quiet lately, he’s still shown some solid upside, and I think this is the day he works towards the top-10 somewhere…hopefully with low ownership. I like him for all formats, but I gave him that nice yellow coat of paint in my notes because I love him for GPP use. Be sure to have some exposure!
After that, for cash game use, I don’t mind using Suarez if you need to go cheaper, but try not to force it. Still, he’s a heck of a driver, even with his low-tier car. Remember that Bristol rewards driver skill more than a lot of other tracks, which is perfect for him. He finished 18th here last time, and I think something in that ballpark could be had again. A top-15 is not impossible with some help.
Preece and Kenseth are the first strong GPP options of this group. Preece finished 12th here in May, and Kenseth has better equipment (and more experience) than the others down here. Both have a solid shot of a top-15 or better, but I don’t think we need them for cash games, so stick to GPP. Either way, they’re strong options, so have some exposure!
Ty Dillon, Newman, and Stenhouse round out the group. Ty offers the same raw upside that McDowell has, it’s just a matter of if he decides to show up or not. It seems impossible to know when that is, so I recommend at least sprinkling him around in case he puts together a strong race. As for Newman, he’s just seemed really tame, even at races where he could excel, so I would keep him in GPP as well. And Stenhouse, well, you know the drill by now. GPP only, as he will single-handedly make or break a lineup with either a very strong or very poor finish.
Punts
There’s not a lot to LOVE with the punts, but they are at least serviceable this week. I think the best options would be Hill, Smithley, Gaulding, and Yeley. If you use them, be sure you’re using them properly in stars & scrubs lineups. In other words, don’t go sticking them with a bunch of drivers who can’t lead any laps. Be sure you’re stacking them with at least two dominators, possibly three, since you will need as many of those 500 laps as possible for this to work.
Quick recap
Dominators (2 for all formats cash, 2-3 for all formats GPP…some solo dominator lineups on DK, GPP only)
- Primary dominator – Keselowski
- Primary secondary dominators – Kyle Busch, Elliott, Hamlin
- Secondary pivots – Harvick, Logano, Truex, Austin/Bowman
- Supplemental options – Bowyer, Blaney, Kurt
Studs
- Johnson, Bowyer/Blaney/Kurt, Jones
- Pivots – DiBenedetto, Almirola/Byron
Value studs
- Wallace, Nemechek
- Pivots/stack options – Bell, Reddick, Custer
Value
- McDowell, Suarez
- Pivots – Preece/Kenseth, Newman, Ty Dillon/Stenhouse
Punts (stars & scrubs lineups only!)
- Hill/Smithley/Gaulding/Yeley
Closing thoughts
We have just a few drivers that are likely to lead most of the laps, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to focus more of your pivots in different price ranges this week, and let others chase those that are less likely to pay off up top. Either way, be sure to attack that mid/mid-high price range, as there are some strong options here that aren’t normally as good options (i.e. Wallace, McDowell, Bowyer, Nemechek). Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!