Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Yu Darvish
- Dustin May
- Dane Dunning
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Boyd had been struggling prior to facing the Twins in his last start as he had given up 7 HRs in his previous 4 starts. He ended up allowing an HR against the Twins but allowed just 1 earned run in 6 innings. Dobnak was on our shortlist of SPs in his last start and he got knocked around by the Tigers.
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 5 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers –
Twins –
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last 5 games.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last 6 games.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Castillo always intrigues me but he just hasn’t been the same just yet this season. Some RHPs have had really strong K games against PIT recently and Castillo has the ability to have one of those games. Remember that this game will be 7 innings (all doubleheaders are) and for DFS purposes on DK, that Complete Game bonus looms large.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over his last 9 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 8 games.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Trevor Bauer
Pirates – Cody Ponce
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over his last 9 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 8 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Tanner Roark
Red Sox – Zack Godley
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. The last time that Roark faced the Red Sox, he allowed 2 HRs, walked 5 batters, and allowed 4 runs in 3 innings of work. Zack Godley shut out the Blue Jays across 4 innings of work in his last appearance against them. He has made 7 appearances this season and has allowed HRs in just 3 of them. In those 3, he has allowed 7 HRs and he has thrown just 25.2 innings on the season.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 6 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 6 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Red Sox – Chris Mazza
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 6 games.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 6 games.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Austin Voth
Braves – Tommy Milone
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Austin Voth has been knocked around in each of his last 4 starts, with one of those coming against this Atlanta squad. Milone got smacked around in his Braves debut and was a surprising acquisition (at least to me) by the Braves to “bolster” their rotation.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 6 games.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Will Crowe
Braves – Josh Tomlin
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Kurt Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last 6 games.
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New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees – Deivi Garcia
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I am a huge fan of Garcia’s upside and he looked the part in his debut last time out. He allowed 1 unearned run and struck out 6 in 6 innings of work. He threw just 75 pitches in that start but I assume he has the ability to approach the 85-90 mark today. Cobb has given up 15 runs over his last 4 starts with just 9 Ks to go along with 38 flyball outs. Flyball outs are dangerous things against power and in a small ballpark.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 8 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Yankees –
Orioles – Jorge Lopez
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 8 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
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Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-134)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rays – Josh Fleming
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. This is an extremely interesting SP match-up. Fleming has looked the part over his first two starts and is coming off of shutting down this MIA squad. Lopez is a guy that I have been on this season and he will definitely find his way into my notes again for this game. Lopez has given up 2 earned runs or less in all 6 starts.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 6 games.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians (-149)
Starting Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Indians – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8 runs. Burnes is coming off of a 10 K performance in which he dominated the Pirates. He has 46 Ks in 32.1 innings on the season. Carrasco is an interesting case as he failed us as a chalky option but he has flashed upside. Carrasco is coming off of his own dominant performance against the Cardinals and gets a very inviting K match-up against the Brewers.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 8 games.
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last 6 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-124)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Mets – Rick Porcello
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. This game seems like one that should have plenty of offense with the way the hitters are swinging it plus the lack of stud pitchers on the mound.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .268 over the last 6 games.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last 8 games.
Chicago White Sox (-154) @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dane Dunning
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. Dunning has looked the part of a top prospect through his first 2 career starts. His last time out was against this KC squad and he held them hitless through 5 innings and racked up 7 Ks. Singer allowed 3 runs in 5 innings against the White Sox his last time out. He doesn’t quite show the same upside but this is an SP match-up we could see a lot over the next handful of seasons.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last 6 games.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 6 games.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Cubs – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 8 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .284 over the last 6 games.
Houston Astros (-114) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9. McCullers struggled in his first start against LA earlier this season but is coming off of what might be his best or second-best start of 2020. I am a bit shocked to see that Bundy is an underdog at home here as the Astros offense hasn’t exactly been rolling and he has been really strong this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Josh Reddick, Aledmys Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 4 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last 5 games.
Texas Rangers (-108) @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Kyle Cody
Mariners – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. We could see a lot of the bullpens here but Newsome has a chance to get us 75-80 pitches if things go smoothly. This is a tough game to decide on as the offenses just aren’t very good and the pitchers are very much unknown at this point. I assume that Cody isn’t going to go from just a couple of innings to throwing 6 innings in this start. ***UPDATE*** Seattle has swapped to Kikuchi as the projected SP.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 5 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-264)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. May has allowed 2 runs or less in all 7 of his starts this season. His K numbers have dipped over his last 4 starts but he has flashed the K upside and he throws one of the hardest fastballs of any SP in all of baseball. Senzatela got lit up by the Dodgers just two starts ago as he allowed them to hit 4 HRs against him (in LA).
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sam Hilliard
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 6 games.
LAD5-star plays: Corey Seager, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 7 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-122)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Taylor Clarke
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I actually think this game could be sneaky for some late-night runs. I know that ARI is struggling at the plate but Anderson doesn’t put fear in my mind and the Giants just put up a ton of runs in Coors. I know we should consider fading a team coming out of Coors but they have an interesting match-up.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last 5 games.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last 7 games.
San Diego Padres @ Oakland Athletics (-150)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Zach Davies
Athletics – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. It’s really interesting to see that the A’s are sizeable favorites in this game against a buffed up Padres squad. The Padres disappointed on Thursday night and now face another tough LHP. The A’s haven’t played in what seems like weeks after a staffer tested positive and the MLB was proactive and PPD there most recent series.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .242 over the last 7 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 2 games (COVID).
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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