(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 27th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Sonny Gray
  • Austin Voth
  • Madison Bumgarner

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – JT Brubaker

Indians – Cal Quantrill

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. Musgrove just dominated this Cleveland squad and now Brubaker gets a turn.  He isn’t a great pitcher but he’s been pretty good, having allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts.  The Indians have made comments about wanting to get multiple RPs to work in this final game so I would expect we see about 6 or 7 pitchers on the mound for the Indians today.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Colin Moran

GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last 7 games.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Josh Naylor

GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.


Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees (-165)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Jose Urena

Yankees – Clarke Schmidt

Rundown:

This game has a total of 9.5. I have no desire to use either SP unless we see watered-down lineups.  Unlike in years past, we can’t see extremely random lineups because teams weren’t able to call up a bunch of players when rosters normal would expand.  With that said, I do expect a couple of guys to rest for the Yankees.  Whether they get an at-bat and then head to the bench or just starting out on the bench.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 9 games.

NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge

GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.


 

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Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-145)

Starting Pitchers:

Red Sox – Nick Pivetta

Braves – Bryse Wilson

Rundown:

This game has a total of 10.5.  I kind of like Wilson a bit as he looked better in his last start but I know the game total here.  We could see ATL use a bunch of pitchers as they get ready for the postseason.  This is another game that we need to find news on tomorrow before we make a final decision.  As of writing this, I want ATL bats as long as the lineup is regular.

BOS 5-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr.

4-star plays: Bobby Dalbec, Christian Vazquez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last 6 games.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last 7 games.


Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitchers:

Reds – Sonny Gray

Twins – Rich Hill

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez

4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos

GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last 6 games.

MIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 5 games.


 

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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (-125)

Starting Pitchers:

Cubs – Adbert Alzolay/Jose Quintana

White Sox – Reynaldo Lopez

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  This game means more to the White Sox than it does to the Cubs as the White Sox can get themselves an AL Central Division title with a win and a loss by the Twins.  The White Sox need to get a couple of guys going here (Anderson, Grandal, Robert) if they want to make some noise in the playoffs.  The Cubs have seen some bats wake up a bit over the last couple of games but they need to see more or else they aren’t making it out of the first round.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo

4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last 7 games.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Nick Madrigal, Yasmani Grandal

GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last 7 games.


Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-122)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – Keegan Akin

Blue Jays – Tanner Roark

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 10.5. This looks like a game we should be targeting for some offense.  I believe the Blue Jays have a chance to grab the #2 spot in the division with a win and a Yankees loss.  I do think that the Blue Jays could rest somebody or take it easy with their pitching.  Akin has looked somewhat impressive with high K ability in his arm.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays

GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last 6 games.

TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.

4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Bo Bichette

GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 7 games.


Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers:

Astros – Chase De Jong

Rangers – Jordan Lyles

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. This game means very little to the Astros so we get De Jong on the mound and he’s been pretty bad in a very small sample size at the MLB level over the last couple of seasons.  I would be shocked to see a normal Astros lineup but whoever they have in the lineup should be in decent spots against Lyles.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker

GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 7 games.

TEX 5-star plays: Sam Huff

4-star plays:  Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last 7 games.


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Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Brett Anderson

Cardinals – Austin Gomber

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. This really isn’t the SP match-up you are hoping to see on the final day of the season with postseason aspirations at stake.  Anderson has been solid of late and is coming off of a very strong K performance in his last start.  Gomber looked good on the mound in his last start but that was against KC and this one is a bit more stressful.  I have a feeling we see a LOT of pitchers in this game.

MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun

4-star plays: Orlando Arcia

GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last 8 games.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Tommy Edman

GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Seth Lugo

Nationals – Austin Voth

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. I am a fan of both SPs here but we need to pay attention to updates on how many pitches they might go as neither team is playing for anything.  Voth looked really good in his most recent start and Lugo has impressed in most of his starts down the stretch.  I am more interested in the Nationals lineup, especially the top half.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso

GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last 7 games.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Andrew Stevenson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 9 games.


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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-162)

Starting Pitchers:

Tigers – Jordan Zimmermann

Royals – Brady Singer

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I just am not a fan of the Tigers in this one.  A couple of their hottest hitters left the game yesterday with injuries so I just don’t know what kind of a lineup we see out of them.  Singer has impressed me in his rookie season and has seemed to get better as the season has gone on.  This is Alex Gordon’s last game as he announced he would retire at the end of the season.  I would NOT be shocked to see him hitting near the top of the lineup and it wouldn’t shock me if he went out with a bang.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 7 games

KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi

GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last 7 games.


San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Adrian Morejon

Giants – Drew Smyly

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.  This game means a TON to the Giants as they try to get themselves into the postseason.  The Padres have dealt with some SP injuries this last week so I expect them to use a TON of pitchers in order to get through this game.  That might sound like the Giants have an advantage but I am a big believer in bullpen games being an advantage for smart managers.

SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Eric Hosmer

GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last 6 games.

SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt

GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last 8 games.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays

Starting Pitchers:

Phillies – Aaron Nola

Rays – Josh Fleming

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.  This is a must-win for the Phillies but it’s not going to be an easy spot.  The Rays play so well at home and their bullpen is one of the best in baseball, year-in, and year-out.  Aaron Nola has been really great this season but he is on the road here and he has had some pretty ugly road splits in his career.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen

GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last 7 games.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Joey Wendle

GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 6 games.


Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Patrick Sandoval

Dodgers – Undecided

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information. We should see the Dodgers use a handful of different pitchers as they get some tune-ups before the postseason.  They are the one team that I feel very confident in resting or limiting at-bats of their regulars in this final game of the regular season.  I have seen rumors that Graterol could open for May here and if that’s the case, I still expect to see May only go a few before giving way to the bullpen.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: David Fletcher, Jahmai Jones

GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 6 games.

LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: Justin Turner, Edwin Rios

GPP Note: Team ISO of .288 over the last 6 games.


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – Kyle Freeland

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 9 runs.  I am pretty sure the Rockies just want this season to get over and Bumgarner wants to go out with a bang after he struggled for much of the season.  This is mostly a gut feeling but I think Bumgarner surprises a bit today as the Rockies lineup is pretty weak without Arenado.

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 8 games.

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Christian Walker

GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 6 games.


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics (-120)

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Marco Gonzales

Athletics – Frankie Montas

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5.  Montas has NOT been very good this season but he was extremely dominant against this weak Seattle squad earlier this season.  Gonzales has actually been pretty impressive this season but we know that the Athletics are in a battle for the #2 seed in the A.L.  When it comes to SPs in this one, I would prefer to use Gonzales and I have a feeling I am going to avoid the bats for the most part.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager

GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last 7 games.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Tommy La Stella

GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 7 games.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Atlanta Braves
  2. Kansas City Royals (FD only main slate)
  3. Texas Rangers

MLB Dinger of the Day – Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

I had to do it.  I never was a HUGE Gordon fan but I respected the way he battled.  He came up with unhealthy expectations with the Royals, struggled as a third baseman, and instead of just flaming out and busting, he put in the work and became a gold-glove outfielder and World Series champion.  I want to see him go out with a bang today.


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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