(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 26th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Brandon Woodruff
  • Aaron Civale
  • Tanner Houck

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Indians (-200)

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – Joe Musgrove

Indians – Aaron Civale

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8. Civale has given up 3+ runs in 5 of his last 8 starts.  He isn’t as sharp as the rest of the Indians starting rotation but he gets a pretty decent match-up here.  He is very much a reverse splits SP but he should be facing quite a few LHBs (switch-hitters as well).  Musgrove gives up HRs, it’s just something he’s not able to avoid but the starting staff for PIT has been really strong this week.  I still like the Indians offense here and we could see a Chicago Cubs like an explosion of power.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 8 games.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last 7 games.


Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees (-196)

Starting Pitchers:

Marlins – Trevor Rogers

Yankees – Deivi Garcia

Rundown:

This game has a total of 9.5. The Marlins clinched a playoff spot on Friday night so we could see them come out a bit flat in this one as I am sure they have a little celebrating going on in the locker room.  Garcia is a kid with some upside but he has been so-so of late.  He has given up 6 HRs over his last 21.2 IP at the MLB level.  Rogers has flashed some impressive K upside but he’s given up 18 runs over his last 16 IP.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last 9 games.

NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge

GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 7 games.


 

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Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (-140)

Starting Pitchers:

Red Sox – Tanner Houck

Braves – Huascar Ynoa or Bryse Wilson

Rundown:

This game has a total of 9. These two teams played a pretty exciting game on Friday night with the Braves walking it off in extra-innings.  Houck has looked really impressive over two starts at the MLB level but this is a tough spot for him.  I think he has some upside but this Braves lineup is just performing every game.  They rested a couple of guys who then came on late and won the game for them on Friday night.  I am interested in Wilson if he ends up starting for the Braves.

BOS 5-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr.

4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers

GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 6 games.

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: Team ISO of .303 over the last 6 games.


Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins (-138)

Starting Pitchers:

Reds – Luis Castillo

Twins – Michael Pineda

Rundown:

This game has a total of 8. I love this match-up from an SP standpoint.  The Reds are winning Friday night’s match-up and are about to clinch a spot in the postseason while the Twins are in a battle for the A.L. Central crown.  Both of these teams are loaded with power and when you get a strong SP match-up, it can come down to which team takes advantage of the mistakes from a power standpoint.

CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas

4-star plays: Joey Votto

GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last 6 games.

MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario

4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler

GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last 6 games.


 

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Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox (-140)

Starting Pitchers:

Cubs – Jon Lester

White Sox – Dane Dunning

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9. The Cubs offense exploded on Friday night and that might be the performance they needed to get rolling for the postseason.  They have been on cruise control of late and there are a lot of questions about whether they can hit enough to last in the postseason.  Lester has been really strong on the road but I have some worries here.  I know the White Sox are struggling, having lost 6 straight but Lester just isn’t striking anybody out and if you allow this White Sox lineup to make contact over and over again, you are at the risk of allowing a lot of extra-base hits.

CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo

4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last 6 games.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, James McCann

GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last 7 games.


Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-144)

Starting Pitchers:

Orioles – John Means

Blue Jays – Matt Shoemaker

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. Means has given up just 1 run in each of his last 3 starts and is coming off of an impressive 12 K performance in his last start.  This park is tough to trust for pitching but Means has been looking strong and could surprise here.  Toronto is swinging it really well as they put up double-digits on the Orioles staff Friday night.  Shoemaker is a guy that can give up some HRs but he does a good job of getting groundballs and outs as long as he keeps the ball in the park.

BAL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Iglesias, Austin Hays

GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last 7 games.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr

GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 8 games.


Houston Astros (-198) @ Texas Rangers

Starting Pitchers:

Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.

Rangers – Kyle Gibson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Both of these SPs dominated in their last starts against the opponent.  I think that the Gibson performance was more of a fluke as he came back in his most recent start and got lit up by the Angels.  He has been worse at home this season and I would guess they keep the roof open again for this game.

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve

GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last 7 games.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Leody Taveras, Rougned Odor

GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 7 games.


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Milwaukee Brewers (-112) @ St Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitchers:

Brewers – Brandon Woodruff

Cardinals – Adam Wainwright

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this game from a pitcher standpoint.  I will have next to no interest in the hitters here.  Woodruff has flashed serious upside and Wainwright is ALWAYS strong.  The Brewers’ backs are against the wall so that’s a dangerous spot for Wainwright.  I love seeing this total so low and I will be getting shares of both SPs.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Keston Hiura

GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 7 games.

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kolten Wong

GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals (-152) – Game 1

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Rick Porcello

Nationals – Max Scherzer

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5. Scherzer is making his final start of the season and for most SPs, I would be worried about their focus in that situation but Scherzer is a different breed.  I expect him to be extremely focused as he closes out a somewhat disappointing season.  This game was rained out Friday night and the Mets are needing to pick up wins in both games here.

NYM 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: JD Davis

GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 7 games.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Eric Thames

GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 10 games.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals – Game 2

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Jacob deGrom

Nationals – Anibal Sanchez

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso

4-star plays: JD Davis, Brandon Nimmo

GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 7 games.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Eric Thames

GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 10 games.


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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-122)

Starting Pitchers:

Tigers – Matthew Boyd

Royals – Carlos Hernandez

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. The Royals have some pretty impressive BvP against Boyd and I know he shut them down recently but I want to go right back to the top half of the Royals lineup.  He has given up 14 HRs in just 54.1 IP this season.  Hernandez has given up 4 HRs over his last 6.2 IP but he is somebody that I just can’t get a read on plus the Tigers aren’t a very dangerous offense.  If we want to attack him with Tigers bats, I want to do it with LHBs.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Willi Castro

GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 6 games

KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi

GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 7 games.


San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitchers:

Padres – Undecided

Giants – Johnny Cueto

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado

4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer

GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 5 games.

SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last 7 games.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays (-112)

Starting Pitchers:

Phillies – Zack Wheeler

Rays – Ryan Yarbrough

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. The Phillies absolutely need to win this game to have any shot at making it to the postseason as of late Friday night.  The match-up is far from easy for them as Yarbrough flashes some really nice upside.  Wheeler is going to have to pitch like their 1B (behind Nola as their 1A).

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen

GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last 8 games.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Joey Wendle

GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 6 games.


Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-178)

Starting Pitchers:

Angels – Dylan Bundy

Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9. I am not sure what to do with this match-up.  The Angels flashed the power against Kershaw and the Dodgers on Friday but they shouldn’t have that kind of success in his park, against that kind of an SP.  Gonsolin has looked really good but I do think the Dodgers continue their trend and limit him to around 4-5 IP.  Bundy has looked really good with the Angels this season but this is a tough spot for him.  It really could go either way as I expect the Dodgers to rest a couple of regulars each game this weekend to stay fresh for the postseason when teams aren’t afforded an off day.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last 6 games.

LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger

GPP Note: Team ISO of .262 over the last 6 games.


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers:

Rockies – German Marquez

Diamondbacks – Luke Weaver

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story

4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last 7 games.

ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar

4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker

GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last 5 games.


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics – Game 1

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Justin Dunn

Athletics – Mike Minor

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Lewis

GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 6 games.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty

GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 6 games.

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics – Game 2

Starting Pitchers:

Mariners – Justus Sheffield

Athletics – Paul Blackburn

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager

GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last 6 games.

OAK 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Matt Olson, Tommy La Stella

GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 6 games.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Chicago White Sox
  2. Kansas City Royals
  3. Cleveland Indians

MLB Dinger of the Day – Edwin Encarnacion, Chicago White Sox


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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