Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Shane Bieber
- Framber Valdez
- Tyler Anderson
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Blake Snell
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. Kremer has looked extremely sharp in both of his MLB starts. He faced the Yankees in both, struck out 7 in each, and allowed just 1 run in each of them as well. Snell was knocked around a bit by the Orioles earlier this season but he is coming off of very strong performance and is finally stretched out.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 5 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 7 games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Undecided
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Nate Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 5 games.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last 7 games.
Cleveland Indians (-270) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
Indians – Shane Bieber
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 7.5 runs. We get Shane Bieber, arguably the best SP in the game this season, against a Detroit squad that is striking out at a 28.2% rate against RHPs this season. He faced DET earlier this season and struck out 11 in 7 innings while allowing just 3 hits. Mize hasn’t had the best debut season and has struggled the most at home so far.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last 6 games.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Bonifacio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last 7 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11.5. The Dodgers clinched a playoff spot so I wonder if they start resting a few guys here and there as they position themselves for the postseason run. Urias is somebody who flashes upside but this game actually has a decent amount of BvP plays here. I won’t be getting cute with the SPs here.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 5 games.
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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Seth Lugo
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8. Lugo allowed 1 run and struck out 8 in 5 innings against PHI just two starts ago and has actually looked very competent as an SP. I have some interest in him against a weaker PHI lineup (without Hoskins, Bruce, and maybe Realmuto). Nola has been absolutely dominant at home in his career. He has made 2 starts against the Mets this season and has 18 Ks in 12.1 innings while allowing just 3 earned runs.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last 5 games.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last 8 games.
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St Louis Cardinals (-165) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Pirates – Steven Brault
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Hudson struggled with PIT in his first start this season but hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any start since. He has actually allowed 2 earned or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He gets a great match-up here as the only bat that worries me is a hot hitting, Josh Bell. Brault has allowed 8 runs and 22 baserunners in his 13.2 home innings this season.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 8 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last 7 games.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-230)
Starting Pitchers:
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. Valdez just started a few games ago against this Texas squad and he struck out 8 over 7 innings of work. He did allow 3 runs in that but did only allow 5 hits. I think this is a great spot for Valdez to right the ship a bit as he has been off in his recent couple of starts. Lyles hasn’t been good in the rotation for the Rangers and while he is getting hit by everybody, he is getting hit hardest by RHBs this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 5 games.
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San Francisco Giants (-142) @ Seattle Mariners (played IN SF)
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Mariners – Nick Margevicius
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. This game is being played in SF after Tuesday night’s game was PPD due to air quality. This is an interesting thing as it allows Anderson to pitch at home, even as a visitor. He has HUGE home/road splits so far with the Giants. The Giants had a pretty strong performance against Newsome on Wednesday night and they could be in a sneaky spot here as well.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Brandon Crawford
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last 4 games.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 6 games.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Chase Anderson
Yankees – Masahiro Tanaka
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. The Yankees bats are absolutely rolling right now and they take on an SP who has allowed 4 HRs and 10 runs over his last 6.2 innings (2 starts). We should see the Yankees be extremely popular and for good reason. Toronto has scored just 21 runs over their last 6 games so Tanaka gets them at a great time. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 4 straight starts and in 7 of his 8 starts.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .307 over the last 6 games.
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Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Marlins – Jose Urena
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last 5 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 9 games.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Kenta Maeda
White Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last 5 games.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last 6 games.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Alex Young
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. Canning hasn’t picked up a win yet this season, despite flashing strong upside at times. He has struggled with his control quite a bit and he’s in a rough spot facing a team that is swinging it really well, despite not being very good. Young has been serviceable in the rotation but he lacks K upside as he has just 8 Ks with 7 BBs over his last 3 starts. I think this is a spot for the Angels to wake up a bit.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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