(FREE!) DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Pitching Advice, and Stack Strategy for FanDuel and Draftkings – September 15th, 2020

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.

  • Yu Darvish
  • Carlos Carrasco
  • Jack Flaherty

Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above?  Come join the fun!

 

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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles

Starting Pitchers:

Braves – Sean Newcomb

Orioles – Tom Eshelman

Rundown:  

Waiting on Vegas information.  I am still looking for confirmation on the Braves SP for this game.  The rumor is that Newcomb will be making his return to the rotation and if he does, it lines the Orioles up for a very interesting spot.  I love using the Orioles bats when they are facing an LHP and they just won a lot of people money on Monday night.  Braves bats are definitely in play as well.

ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr

4-star plays: Marcel Ozuna, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 games.

BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle

4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Jose Iglesias

GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.


Cleveland Indians @ Chicago Cubs

Starting Pitchers:

Indians – Carlos Carrasco

Cubs – Yu Darvish

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.  If we happen to get the wind blowing in for this match-up, I am going to be ALL about both SPs here.  Darvish has been absolutely insane this season.  Carrasco struggled against the Cubs earlier this season as he walked 5 and allowed 4 hits in 4.1 innings.  Darvish should be at the top of the ALL list on my notes, but I haven’t finalized my thinking just yet.

CLE 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Ramirez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last 7 games.

CHC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jason Heyward

GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last 7 games.


Oakland Athletics (-158) @ Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers:

Athletics – Sean Manaea

Rockies – Antonio Senzatela

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 11.5.  The A’s put up some solid runs in Monday’s doubleheader but they had been a bit cold for a bit prior to that.  Manaea has given up just 1 earned run in each of his last 4 starts.  He has turned around a terrible start to the 2020 season.  He has struggled on the road this season and his K numbers have been pretty low.  Senzatela has actually been really strong this season but I think this is a tough spot for him.  He’s leaned reversed splits in his MLB career and that is not a great thing against this OAK squad that can get very right-handed.

OAK 5-star plays: Sean Murphy

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson

GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last 9 games.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Matt Kemp, Trevor Story

GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last 6 games.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-132)

Starting Pitchers:

Pirates – Joe Musgrove

Reds – Michael Lorenzen

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Lorenzen returns to the rotation but he should be pretty limited as he hasn’t thrown more than 40 pitches in awhile.  Musgrove flashes upside but then he gives up HRs.  The Reds hit a bunch of HRs on Monday so I think they end up a sneaky spot to target here.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Josh Bell

GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 5 games.

CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto

4-star plays: Shogo Akiyama, Mike Moustakas

GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last 6 games.


New York Mets (-119) @ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers:

Mets – Rick Porcello

Phillies – Jake Arrieta

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5. This game should be very popular for stacking purposes.  Porcello has made 2 starts against Philadelphia and has allowed 6 runs on 13 hits in 12 innings.  He has 12 Ks in those 2 starts.  He has been FAR better when on the road in 2020 than when he is at home.  Arrieta allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings of work against the Mets earlier this season.  He has been extremely bad at home in 2020 as he has allowed 11 runs in 12 innings.

NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Wilson Ramos

GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last 6 games.

PHI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jean Segura, Alec Bohm

GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 9 games.


Kansas City Royals (-106) @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers:

Royals – Danny Duffy

Tigers – Matthew Boyd

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5.  I was shocked to see a total at just 8.5 runs here as both SPs are vulnerable, especially Boyd.  The Royals have some impressive BvP history and seem to be heating up a bit while Boyd has just been bad this season.  Duffy did allow 4 runs in 5 innings against DET earlier this season but that seems kind of fluky as he struck out 8 and allowed just 3 hits.  Boyd is coming off of an atrocious start and has now allowed 13 HRs in 43.2 innings this season.

KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield

4-star plays: Maikel Franco, Salvador Perez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last 7 games.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Victor Reyes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last 8 games.


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St Louis Cardinals (-144) @ Milwaukee Brewers

Starting Pitchers:

Cardinals – Jack Flaherty

Brewers – Brett Anderson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs.  Flaherty lines up in a great spot against a struggling MIL squad who can strike out at an alarming rate against RHPs.  Anderson was scratched from his last start so we need to pay attention here to make sure he is good to go.  I like the STL bats against him but more in a mini-stack sense as he tends to not get blown up all too often, even though the industry tends to stack against him quite a bit.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Paul DeJong

GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last 8 games.

MIL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last 5 games.


Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-220)

Starting Pitchers:

Rangers – Kyle Cody

Astros – Jose Urquidy

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9. We get a couple of so-so SPs here.  Cody has flashed some ability but he faces an Astros squad that has been embarrassed recently.  They aren’t swinging it very well but home cooking can cure things.  Jose Urquidy isn’t a terrible pitcher and he gets a plus match-up, especially being such a large favorite.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays:  Rougned Odor, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last 8 games.

HOU 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer

GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last 7 games.

 

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San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitchers:

Giants – Tyler Anderson

Mariners – Ljay Newsome

Rundown:

Waiting on Vegas information.

SF 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Brandon Belt

GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 6 games.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ty France, Dylan Moore

GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last 6 games.


Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-172)

Starting Pitchers:

Nationals – Anibal Sanchez

Rays – John Curtiss/Ryan Yarbrough

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  I HATE opener situations as we have seen some teams lie about the PLR’s and then they go with multiple other pitchers before the PLR enters the game (if they enter at all).  Sanchez just hasn’t been very good so I expect the Rays to score some runs in this one.

WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto

4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner

GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last 6 games.

TB 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe

4-star plays: Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier

GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last 6 games.


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-156)

Starting Pitchers:

Blue Jays – Taijuan Walker

Yankees – Deivi Garcia

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.5.  I am a huge fan of this Garcia kid (he looks like he is 15 out there).  He gets the Blue Jays at the right time.  They are dealing with injuries and cold bats at the plate.  Walker has been really solid all season long but the Yankees seem to be heating up.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Travis Shaw

GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last 6 games.

NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres

4-star plays: Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last 7 games.


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Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) @ San Diego Padres

Starting Pitchers:

Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin

Padres – Zach Davies

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  I am really shocked to see Gonsolin and the Dodgers as favorites here.  The Padres picked up the win on Monday night and now they face a much weaker SP.  Davies has been really impressive for the Padres so far and he is a guy that can get the LHBs of the Dodgers out as he has been a reverse splits guy for his entire career.  Gonsolin looked very good against SD earlier this season as he had 8 Ks in 4.2 innings.  Davies allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings against the Dodgers earlier this season.

LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: Cody Bellinger

GPP Note: Team ISO of .238 over the last 5 games.

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Manny Machado

GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last 5 games.


Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins (-162)

Starting Pitchers:

Red Sox – Tanner Houck

Marlins – Sandy Alcantara

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 9.  Surprisingly, Alcantara has struggled at home so far this season while being really strong on the road.  I like the spot he is in, even though the Red Sox bats are warmer than they have been for much of the season.  Houck will be making his debut here and the Marlins have been scoring some runs recently.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Bobby Dalbec

GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games.

MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Aguilar

4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starling Marte

GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 8 games.


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-116)

Starting Pitchers:

Twins – Randy Dobnak

White Sox – Dane Dunning

Rundown:

This game has a total set at 9.5.  The Twins bullpen continues to struggle in games and they lost Monday night’s game after having being tied 1-1 through 6 innings.  Dunning has looked solid in his debut season but he does have some control issues.  He has been absolutely dominant against RHBs up to this point.  Dobnak has struggled recently and his numbers on the road have been pretty bad.  He is allowing an average against of over .300 when on the road.  He has allowed 15 runs in 27 road innings during this season.

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

GPP Note: Team ISO of .298 over the last 6 games.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Yoan Moncada

GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last 5 games.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers:

Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner

Angels – Julio Teheran

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total set at 8.5.  We get to see two SPs who have struggled this season but are coming off of decent performances recently.  Neither SP has a ton of upside at this point so I am a bit shocked to see a total at under 9 runs.  Bumgarner has given up 10 HRs over his last 4 starts.  Julio Teheran has given up less than 3 runs in just 2 of his 7 appearances this season.

ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta

4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Kole Calhoun

GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 7 games.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton

GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last 6 games.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. Baltimore Orioles
  2. Oakland Athletics
  3. New York Mets

MLB Dinger of the Day – Michael Conforto, New York Mets


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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