Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Sonny Gray
- Dustin May
- Gerrit Cole
Want to see what I have to say about the 3 SPs above? Come join the fun!
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees (-250)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Keegan Akin
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. Gerrit Cole just faced BAL and struck out 10 over 6 innings. He allowed just 1 earned run but the Orioles did score 5 runs total against him. He was rolling through the first 4 innings. The Ks have been there all season long but so have the HRs as he has allowed 13 HRs over 52 innings. Keegan Akin has looked like he belongs at the MLB level so far as he has yet to allow an earned run over his first 13 innings. He does have some control issues but he did shut down the Yankees in his last appearance.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last 6 games.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last 8 games.
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Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Indians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. I don’t think very highly of Civale but we have to consider him here as such a large favorite, against a team that just doesn’t put up many runs. Brady Singer has a decently bright future ahead of him but he hasn’t been able to put it together yet this season. The Indians bats aren’t exactly denting the plate at this point either.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last 7 games.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last 6 games.
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Atlanta Braves (-143) @ Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Robbie Erlin
Nationals – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. Looks like we will see Erlin make a start for Atlanta but he should be limited to just 2 or 3 innings as he just pitched on the 7th in relief. Voth has made two starts against ATL and has allowed 16 hits and 10 runs over 8.2 innings. The Braves just put up your average 29 runs against Miami on Wednesday night.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers:
Reds – Sonny Gray
Cubs – Adbert Alzolay
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information. I believe we are going to wait on some wind updates from Chicago as the last two games have been hindered by strong winds, blowing in. Alzolay struggled with control in the 3rd inning of his last appearance and couldn’t complete 3 innings while throwing 78 pitches. Gray was lit up in his most recent start but he had his best start of the season against the Cubs earlier. Bauer dominated the Cubs lineup on Wednesday and I assume Gray is going to have a very similar outcome unless the wind is blowing straight out.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last 6 games.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last 8 games.
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Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics (-144)
Starting Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5 runs. Urquidy struggled with control in his 2020 debut last week and now gets a tough match-up against an OAK squad that’s playing well. I know Urquidy has flashed some upside at the MLB level so we have to consider him here, especially because I love the spot that the Astros offense is in for GPP purposes.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last 9 games.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 6 games.
Los Angeles Angels (-184) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9 runs. Dylan Bundy has been absolutely dominant on the road so far with the Angels. He gets to face off against a Rangers squad that just isn’t driving the ball anywhere. The Rangers have scored a few runs tonight (7) but a few came when RPs couldn’t find the strike zone. Gibson hasn’t been good, at all. He has an ERA of nearly 7 at home with an average against him of .301.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton (DTD)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, Ronald Guzman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last 7 games.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Trevor Cahill
Padres – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last 6 games.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last 7 games.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins (-106)
Starting Pitchers:
Phillies – Jake Arrieta
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Sandy Alcantara has made 2 really strong starts (1 against PHI) and 1 extremely bad start. The Phillies bats when from scorching hot to just average, outside of a couple of hitters. The Marlins just got lit up by the Braves on Wednesday night but they did score some runs of their own and their bats are swinging it decently right now. I think the Marlins are a sneaky stack on Thursday.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last 8 games.
MIA 5-star plays: Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Matt Joyce
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last 6 games.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Mike Kickham
Rays – Josh Fleming
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Mike Kickham hasn’t been terrible at the MLB level but he has no track record of showing that he could be this solid at the MLB level. Arozarena has been scorching but the rest of the Rays have been pretty mediocre. I have been impressed with Fleming even though he is coming off of his worst start. With that said, he takes on a Red Sox lineup that has been hitting the ball A TON better recently.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over the last 8 games.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Michael Brosseau
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last 6 games.
Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals (-220) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Cardinals – Jack Flaherty
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 6.5. The Tigers were just dominated by a high strikeout RHP on Wednesday and now they take on an even better SP in game 1 of this series. Flaherty just hasn’t been unleashed since his first start as I think he’s kind of out of whack due to their layoff over positive COVID results. Skubal is coming off of his best MLB start and now pitches in a game with a total of just 6.5 runs. He is an under-the-radar play on Thursday.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 7 games.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 8 games.
Detroit Tigers @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Jordan Zimmermann
Cardinals – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last 7 games.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last 8 games.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-194) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs. Welcome to National Kike Hernandez day as he takes on Madison Bumgarner and shows off his 25 for 50 BvP history with 4 HRs and 6 2Bs. When we think about BvP examples Kike vs Bumgarner and Bryce Harper vs Julio Teheran come to mind. As a pure baseball fan, I want to see Bumgarner snap out of his funk and pitch like the guy we are used to seeing. The problem is that we can’t be “fans” when it comes to DFS action.
LAD 5-star plays: Kike Hernandez
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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