For some, this is a new sport that you may have found because there was a time where this was all there was. Maybe you were using your new-found free time to get back into horse racing. No matter your reason for what brought you here during the quarantine, this is the culmination of all that time and effort. Even though there are no fans and this isn’t May, the spectacle of the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby looms just as large.
The quarantine has given us new ways to enjoy horse racing in Fanduel’s DFS-style approach to the sport. It served us well while main sports were on hiatus. We had classic betting, too, of course; but, tomorrow, Draftkings has graced us with a free single entry pool. This article will serve as a way to narrow down your choices for said pool. If you choose classic betting at your favorite online racebooks, that will be your choice. I encourage you to join us in the Horse Racing channel to chat about the races and maybe get our final picks. Let’s attack the
Draftkings Pool
The Draftkings pool consists of 8 questions. You will need to pick 1 horse to Win, Place, and Show. The other 5 questions are props. NOTE: Draftkings has reserved the right to alter or cancel questions as they need to. There is one question, at time of writing, that could be affected by this reservation. We will get into that below. My horse selections will be accompanied by my confidence rating for it’s chances at finishing in the money.
Question 1: Which Horse Will Win the Kentucky Derby?
Looking at this field, I have to settle on 2 horses with the chops to take it down. Honestly, Tiz the Law (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) is the only choice here but, if you seriously want to entertain the idea of the favorite missing out on glory, then I would look at Honor A.P. (⭐⭐⭐⭐). Both of these horses should run behind the leaders and have strong kicks at the end of the 2nd turn and through the stretch. Tiz is really just better, though, and he is proven at this distance.
Question 2: Which Horse Will Place?
Since I am highly on Tiz to win it, Honor A.P. is a good shout. His running style suits a strong finish at this distance. We cannot forget about the always dangerous closers in this race. The most dangerous closer we have is NY Traffic (⭐⭐⭐). I am calling this horse a closer because it’s expected to switch up his style for this race. Thus far, we have seen NYT run early and throughout. There is no quit here but he doesn’t always get home. Saving some energy could be beneficial but I am worried about a bounce here.
For those unaware, a bounce is having a horse run a bigger than big race than the horse has done in the past and it wins or loses by a narrow margin. We don’t want the horse being pushed too much from one race to the next. NY Traffic had previously ran a 96 best beyer but ran a 107 last time out while losing by a nose. He ran 2nd almost the whole race and down the stretch when you thought he was done, he found a second wind or another gear or something and challenged late. That is a big step up. A bounce is not certain but it’s something to note. If NY Traffic were to bounce, he will finish mid-pack. If he is ready for this moment, he can finish in the money with 2nd place upside.
DK isn’t listing every horse in the pool. As an alternate to these somewhat chalky choices, you can select Any Other Horse as your option. We have seen some out of nowhere place performances and if I were to get weird, and I will with my classic bets, I would take a look at Money Moves (⭐⭐⭐). With only 3 races under his saddle, there is still some room for growth and he is surrounded by horses who want to sit further back and a pace setter. I think he will get a little forward and make a late move. This horse has not raced a graded stakes before but has raced some stronger competition before.
Question 3: Which Horse Will Show?
This spot is a bit more wide open. It starts with whichever horses you didn’t choose for the place and then add in the following horses:
- Major Fed – this horse has run well in graded stakes and has a good jockey. Major Fed will start mid-pack and will have some traffic to navigate to get free but it’s doable. ⭐⭐⭐
- Authentic – this is a very, very good horse. The problem here is that this horse has to get the lead to win but has a long run to get near the rail in a race that already has an extra furlong to it. The other thing I noticed about this horse is that he can get a little squirrelly out of the gate. The only race that this horse has lost was one where he started on the outside of the field and got really wide out of the gate. That’s a lot of extra effort. Even if he starts well, I expect the class of this race to overtake him coming out of the 2nd turn. The question is whether or not he can hold off the charging closers. ⭐⭐
- South Bend – this would fall under the Any Other Horse button. Finished 4th at the Travers and should benefit somewhat from getting Tyler Gaffalione as the jockey. He has been one of the better jockeys at Churchill this year, let alone in this field. There will be some traffic to navigate as South Bend will need to come from further back, but this horse knows how to navigate the 1-¼ mile trip. That familiarity gives it a slight leg up. ⭐⭐
Question 4: Will the Finishing Time Be Over/Under 2:03?
Only once since 2013 has a Kentucky Derby finished under this time. I think it’s craftiness, for the most part. Tiz ran his most recent race in 2:00 and ⅘, at this distance. I feel that this race still goes over. The part that sways it for me is that Authentic (the likely early leader) has to come from far outside and has an extra furlong to go beyond what he’s run so far. Couple that with John Velazquez getting the ride, I think we see Authentic getting up front and slowing the pace. If Authentic tries to run straight out for the distance, he will probably get caught by a handful of horses and finish outside the money. The time will likely go under in that case, but I don’t see that as an advantageous ride for the leader. My pick is OVER 2:03.
Question 5: What Will the Saddlecloth Number of the Winning Horse be?
This is an even or odd bet. I am someone who firmly believes that Tiz wins this race and he is wearing number 17. If you like Honor, he has 16. If you are getting super weird just play accordingly. My pick is ODD.
Question 6: Post Position of the Winning Horse.
You have the option of 1-10 or 11-18. Of the horses I listed above, 3 of them are wearing saddlecloths in the 1-10 range. The other 4 are in the 11-18 range. It also just so happens that my favorite choices are in the 11-18 range. So my pick is 11-18.
Question 7: Which Horse Will Have the Better Finishing Position?
Your choices here are Authentic or Honor A.P.. I see the race between these two horses playing out more like the Santa Anita Derby rather than the San Felipe. In the Santa Anita Derby, Authentic started outside and used a lot of energy getting to the lead. Honor had a big powerful move out of the turn for home and never looked back. Give me Honor A.P. to have the better finishing position.
Question 8: Which Horse Will Have the Better Finishing Position?
This is the prop I alluded to in my open. Be sure to double check your submission prior to race time. I suggest checking around 630 to ensure DK hasn’t either changed the choices, the question, or removed the question altogether. The choices are King Guillermo or Thousand Words. King Guillermo withdrew from the race a few days ago so the only choice here is Thousand Words.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the coaching channel. This is such a fun day of racing and I hope you get to enjoy it as much as you can.