Trust The Process DFS NBA – August 2nd, 2020 FanDuel and DraftKings

The DFS NBA “Trust The Process” article is an in-depth look at the DFS Army NBA Research Station to help find plays on today’s 6-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!

Point Guards

The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFS Army that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.

Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Rubio drops out of the Top 5 and is replaced with Derrick White. This tells me he is likely better suited for GPP and tournaments.

For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Westbrook stays high on the list. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change at all really, outside of Rubio back replacing White. This tells me these five guys are the ones to target in tournaments for point guards tonight. Also, that pretty much confirms Rubio may be more of a GPP target than a cash game target.

We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much aside from Murray replacing Lillard. Westbrook stays extremely high on the list.

The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Murray has shown up on both FP/Min and USG% charts, so when he’s on the court, he’s scoring fantasy points. That’s a good GPP note to make, but as always, be very careful with the SAS guards.

When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. One thing we really need to note here is the fact that we’ve had several months off with the COVID outbreak, so these stats carry a lot less weight right now. Regardless, we’ll still look at who was trending upwards before COVID started. When we sort by Descending on 3g vs 10g, we see White and Napier really jump here. White had been providing fantasy owners 7.2X over his last 3 games while averaging 39.5 FP’s and tops the chart at a +10.80 3g vs 10g rating. Do note we had already seen him on a few lists above, particularly the floor lists. We also see Napier here providing 9.51X over the last 3 for fantasy owners. However, Napier really burned a lot of people the other day and Ish Smith got a ton of run and made the most of his minutes. I like White much more than Napier here but Napier has a nice ceiling for tournaments.

We also like to sort by Clock Watch to see what players had been getting more run lately. We don’t really see anyone jump off the page here that is noteworthy, but pre-COVID, Napier was getting nearly 35 minutes per game. That wasn’t the case the other night, but that just goes to show that if he gets hot early, he’s going to have a nice game.

Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.

Power Forwards

For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.

Centers

Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.

Vegas

In NBA DFS, we really want to target games that possess a high scoring total. The more possessions a team has gives us more opportunities for our players to score points. Therefore, we will start using the Vegas section of the RS for our research! We will sort by Total +/- Descending to see what teams are projected to score more than their season average tonight.

When we do this, we see MIL, BOS, DAL, and BKN really pop up here. MIL is projected to score an absurd 123.0 points today, up from a season average of 102.0. The Total O/U of that game is 241.5, which is amazing for GPP purposes. I’m very interested in MIL for GPP purposes here.

BOS is implied to score 117.5 today, up from a season average of 106.9. That also makes for a great tournament option, and stacking MIL and BOS players together really doesn’t seem like a bad idea, but stacking isn’t something I particularly recommend either.

DAL is implied to score 121.3 today, up from a season average of 110.9. This is also a great tournament option as DAL does score in bunches. I just hate that they’re playing PHO, so I prefer the Bucks slightly here.

Finally, we see BKN popping on Vegas here. Really the only pieces I’d be interested in there would be LeVert, Allen, and Harris.

Tier List

You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.

Minutes

For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.

We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.

Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %

Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.

We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.

Top Plays for Today!!

These are my personal Top 3 Plays that I believe will most likely be on the optimal lineup at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)

PG

1. Russell Westbrook $9,900/$9,800
2. Ja Morant $7,500/$7,300
3. De’Aaron Fox $7,700/$7,900

SG

1. James Harden $10,900/$11,100
2. Luka Doncic $10,800/$10,800
3. Caris LeVert $7,800/$7,800

SF

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,200/$11,000
2. Joe Harris $5,000/$5,800
3. Jaylen Brown $6,200/$7,000

PF

1. Jayson Tatum $8,200/$8,200
2. Robert Covington $5,900/$6,400
3. Daniel Theis $5,300/$5,100

C

1. Jarrett Allen $6,500/$5,600
2. Thomas Bryant $5,400/$4,800
3. Nikola Vucevic $8,100/$8,700

 

Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you want access to my full player pool then go on over to https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code AU30 for 20% off your monthly VIP or SBA membership!