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The Sway Bar: Top NASCAR Plays, Fades and Values for New Hampshire

Another week, another race, another chance to bring home some cash. This week the greatest show on pavement rolls up north as we tackle the always…interesting, New Hampshire Motor Speedway. NHMS is a 1 mile and a bit flat oval. The corners feature variable banking of 2 and 7 degrees that in theory makes this a two groove race track – but can devolve into a one groove course depending on where the PJ1 is put down. Most recently we have seen cars enter the corner in the third lane, and pull down into the first lane on corner exit to get some juice coming off the turn. The trick to NHMS is a car that rolls through the looping corners, and has the horsepower to pull the car onto the straightaway and carry the momentum. 

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Nov 3, 2019; Fort Worth, TX, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Aric Almirola (10) during the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

I want to go a little (A LITTLE) contrarian this week, so I want to look at a couple plays that aren’t being talked about as much this week. Of course Kevin Harvick and Blaney are good plays. Hell I think Kyle Busch has some juice this week too. I just wanted to write about some different drivers. If you wan’t a look at which drivers make up your core, be sure to check out the cheat sheets.


Top Plays

Martin Truex Jr – It appears MTJ and crew chief James Small have found their form in 2020, and MTJ is trending towards his dominant self once again. He is poised for a big day on Sunday at a track that he has OBLITERATED since 2015. MTJ has lead at least 83 laps six of the last seven times he hit the pavement at NHMS. Two things to note – the last time he didn’t lead any laps here was the most recent outing, and he has never WON a race at NHMS despite his dominance. Don’t let the scare you off though – he starts 11th which offers up a few juicy differential points for us, and I really believe based on his performance at correlated tracks he will run well here. Even if he doesn’t find the lead, a top five with some fast laps to boot should score 50+ easy. I think he is a safe play and a GPP winner.

Aric Almirola – Almirola is on the run of his life, piling up 8 top tens in a row, and lead significant laps as he does it. This week, he rolls off P1 at a track where he has shown lots of improvement at since his move to SHR in 2018. In his two runs with the squad, he has finished 3rd and 11th and lead laps in both efforts. Its also worth noting he ran at Pocono and Indy, tracks that also rely on straight away speed and smooth cornering due to their flat nature. He is priced at $8500 – so even if he can lead a good portion of the beginning of this race, he should very comfortably score in the 50s. That said, Almirola doesn’t come without some risk. Hamlin will start right beside him in P2, and will likely be pretty quick to jump on any lapses. Still, at $8500 I think Almirola represents a low risk GPP play with huge upside.

Denny Hamlin – Few are better at flat courses than Denny Hamlin, and given 2020 has been one of the best of his career – it would be foolish to think he won’t be a factor this race. I am putting him a notch lower than Almirola here for a few reasons – if there is a spot where Hamlin has struggled in 2020, it has been shorter tracks. 24th at Martinsville with no laps led, 17th at Bristol with 131 laps led (but Bristol is a completely different style of track), and  20th at Phoenix with no laps led. He is also priced super high for a P2, and will need to lead laps to hit value. Its also worth noting how strong he has been on flat tracks, leading laps at both Pocono Races and Indy (before he wrecked). All this in mind – I think the most probable situation is Hamlin finds the lead at some point and hangs around in the top three all day. I have him positioned as the favorite to win based on his flat track profiency and track history – and is probably a safe(ish) bet for GPP.

Joey Logano – I think Joey is a sneaky little leverage play you can slide into your GPP lineups if you are looking to differentiate. Joey is solid at NHMS, but was super solid back in 2015 – 2016 when the horsepower was similar to the package they run now. He led MAJOR laps at Martinsville this year, which is a track that shares some limited correlation with NHMS (hey, its an angle, right?). This is a huge boom or bust play, but I think Joey will go underowned based on his pedestrian performance as of late, and he can easily compete for a top 5. He can even dominate if he shows up like he did at Martinsville.

Fades

I think the following are bottom tier plays are this week

Timmy Hill
JJ Yeley
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Garrett Smithley
Quin Houff
James Davison

Value Plays

Matt Kenseth – I know, I know, I know…Kenseth stinks now, hes no good, hes washed up…this is a really promising spot for Kenseth. Look at the tracks that Kenseth has performed decent at this year…Pocono (12th), Pocono (11th), Indy (2nd), Darlington (10th). All of them are experience type tracks that require a high driving IQ with good throttle discipline, much like New Hampshire. And dont forget, Kenseth was an ACE at New Hampshire in his prime – he finished top six 8 of his last 10 trips here. I dont expect that much out of him – but I do see a solid top 15 run with legit top 10 upside. Remember, this is the exact same equipment that Kurt Busch runs in the top ten with week to week. If Matt can get his mojo back, just for one race, this is a knockout play.

Ryan Newman – If you look through Ryan Newmans Racing Reference log, you’ll notice their is a handful of tracks that he excels at no matter what the situation. New Hampshire is one of them. One reason is high racing IQ and good throttle discipline, sure. But its mostly because he is a grinder who runs his line and doesn’t yield to anybody. The only way Newman will move backwards at New Hampshire is if wrecks or on struggles on pit road. Give him a showroom Ford Focus and I am pretty sure he would still finish top 20. At just $6600 starting 22nd, Newman represents a pretty safe spot and a potential GPP winner.

John Hunter Nemecheck – NHMS is by no means a stand out track for young JHN, but that 36th starting spot is hard to pass up – especially considering the Newman like qualities he possesses. Stubborn and hard to pass, JHN should have to problem putting this car into the top 25, maybe even the top 20 if he gets a good hot rod. He has shown a tendency to be very aggressive though, a quality that will punish you at New Hampshire. Alas, I think that 36th place starting spot allows him to score 35+ without much trouble.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez started the season as a bit of a meme in this Gaunt Brothers car but he just keeps logging laps, man. He is finishing races and whether it be through attrition or just solid race mangement he has finished top 26th the last four races in a row. Against a 37th place starting spot a 25th place run gives us 30 points and lots of room to play with some of the higher priced drivers. I won’t even call this the punt of the week because I think Suarez is a legit play – if not a little bit risky.

Other Notables

Ricky Stenhouse Jr – A little snake-bitten right now and his aggressive driving style doesn’t gel with NHMS super well, but he starts 31st for just $6800 so he is worth a look. I have him pegged as a 20th place car – which would score 35. Not bad.

Ryan Preece – Believe it or not, Preece has probably turned as many laps at NHMS as any one in the field. It is his home track and he was a force to be reckoned with here in modified. That proficiency hasn’t translated yet to Cup cars, but he ran decent here in Xfinity cars (Joe Gibbs cars, but still). 2020 has been absolutley miserable to him this year but that luck can’t last. I think he has top 20 upside this weekend if he can avoid whatever bad luck has plagued him this year.

Bubba Wallace – THIS IS A SUPER RISKY PLAY, and is strictly here for lineups where you wanna go super contrarian. Bubba starts 15th, which almost makes him a full fade. But if you want a case, here it is. He will be super low owned and you an get a ton of leverage very easy, he starts 15th but only costs $6500, so a top 12 is all you need – a feat that he has accomplished 23% of the time if you take out plate races (Vegas, Bristol, Martinsbville, Indy). You can add 13th at Homestead and 14th at Texas too. I am not saying go all in, but if you are looking to go way off the chalk, take a look at Bubba.

So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.