Five races in 48 hours…oh boy. The premier series touches down in Dover this weekend for a highly anticipated double header. Dover is a high banked one mile over that usually provides decent racing…but can be hard to pass at times. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Jul 5, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) and driver Kyle Busch (18) during the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Top Plays
Kyle Busch – I dont care how “bad” of a season Kyle Busch is having. I am always going to be bullish on KB starting 22nd. Now granted, Dover isn’t his BEST track…he more the capable of competing for a win. Even if he doesn’t win – he has finished top 5 in 10/23 races this season…”bad” luck and all. This is a great spot for KB.
Denny Hamlin – There are enough good plays on this slate that I am hoping Hamlin goes a little overlooked. Even if he doesn’t – he has a real shot to grab the lead from Chase off the start and dominate this race (like he did here last fall). He led significant laps at Bristol earlier in the year, and has kept top form ever since. I think there is some leverage to be had here.
Martin Truex Jr- Truex is has among the best form in the series right now, boasting five 3rd place finishes in a row. This week he will tackle a track where he is pretty well the best in the field. Truex is consistently in the top 5 at Dover, and if crew chief can nail the setup off the jump (as he has been doing) it will be a long day for the rest of the field.
Kevin Harvick – If Truex is the best Dover driver in the field…Kevin Harvick is a pretty close second. Harvick rolls of 10th at a track where he has led near 500 laps over the last 5 races, and should push into the top 5 very quickly. If Gibbs doesn’t fire off well, Harvick should control this race.
Fades
Quin Houff
Brennan Poole
Joey Gase
Timmy Hill
BJ McLeod
Reed Sorenson
JJ Yeley
Garrett Smithley
Josh Bilicki
Value Plays
Risky Stenhouse Jr – Stenhouse is always going to be a factor at short steep tracks, and while he is a bit of a crash risk – if he runs the whole race he should score well. He starts 19th but is talented enough to run in the top 15.
Bubba Wallace – Bubba rolls of 24th and given his improved performance in 2020, he is poised to have his best Dover run ever. He has run well at Dover in other series and should be able to hang inside the top 20 and compete for a spot in the optimal. Bubba has also shown a willingness to take the less desirable line on restarts, which hurts his chances to win – but often gains him some quick positions at the end of the race.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth has been a disaster this year, and has cost us all a fistful of cash. That said, I have a hard time believing Kenseth can’t run in the to 20 against his 26th place starting spot. It wasn’t that long ago when he was competing with the car he is now driving for the WIN at Dover…surely he can run top 15 in that same car 4 years later.
John Hunter Nemechek – JHN ran 13th at Bristol, which is super impressive for a rookie in this level of equipment. He starts 31st so he doesnt need to do much to hit the optimal. He is an aggressive driver though, and can be a crash risk.
Other Notables
Ryan Blaney – Given Blaney’s starting spot, he is obviously super viable. I just don’t love Blaney at Dover at this price. He has been so good in 2020 though, you can throw out a lot of his past performances.
Austin Dillon – Assuming AD runs this weekend, he is extremley capable of running top 15 agianst a 32nd starting spot. He is priced up a little this week, though, and will probably be chalky as can be.
Clint Bowyer – Super risky GPP leverage play. Bowyer should be able to hang in the top 5 this week. Super risky because if he falls out of the first couple rows he is in deep trouble. He was strong at Dover last year though, and will have Harvicks notes.
So there you have it. Make sure you check out the Cheat Sheet as well! Good luck and stay cashing.