Oh boy…the high banks of Daytona. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Feb 17, 2020; Daytona Beach, Florida, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott (9) during the Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars all go about the same speed – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
- I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. The sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and its rare for some in the top five to end up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
- Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
- Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 20th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th aren’t unplayable, and should be used in your action aswell.
Erik Jones – Jones is a decent plate racer who will know doubt feature prominently in the Toyota game plan (whatever that be). He has a Daytona win on his record, but those flashes are brilliance are clouded by his consistent wrecking. He has finished on the lead lap in just 43% of his plate starts. Thats not to say he isnt worth a look, but he is by no means a lock.
Bubba Wallace – Other than one poor run, Bubba has run top 15 in all his Daytona attempts. He has finished on the lead laps in 64% of his plate starts and has much better equipment then he has had in the past. He starts 21st, but if he can run top 15 again he will score well.
Ryan Newman – One of my favorite plays anytime we go to plate tracks. He will ride behind the pack and do all he can to be there at the end. He has run top ten in all but one of his Daytona start dating back to 2017.
Christopher Bell – Plate racing isn’t really Bells thing, but he has had decent runs in other series. I think this is a fine play but nothing that gets me super excited.
John H. Nemechek – JHN has shown a fantastic plate race prowess so far in the Cup series, rolling off an 11th in the 500 and an 8th at Dega. A performance like that will surely put him in the optimal again.
Corey Lajoie – In his plate race starts, Lajoie has finished on the lead lap just 50% of the time. That said, his recent performances have been tremendous. 16th, 8th, 7th, 6th, and 18th. Against a 25th starting spot those performances score very well. Obviously he is a crash risk, but Lajoie is in a decent spot.
Michael McDowell – McDowell has made himself chalk whenever we go to Daytona because he is SO damn good. All but one of his Daytona starts dating back to 2015 have been top 15. I can really explain why hes so good here…but he is and I will be playing him.
Chase Elliott – The obviously chalk of the slate. Chase is a good plate driver but in fairness, he has had much more success at Dega than Daytona where he tends to find trouble. He will probably see 40% ownership in most GPPs, and I don’t mind being under on that…but there is a pretty good chance he goes optimal.
Ryan Preece – Started his career amazing at plate tracks, but seems to have regressed slightly. A fine play but nothing special.
Ty Dillon – CEO of grinding out fantastic plate race finishes. Ty will be a big part of Chevs overall strategy, and his ability to avoid wrecks makes him a tremendous look. Has finished on the lead lap in 80% of his plate starts.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez has never been great at Daytona, but this car has a couple top 15 finishes in its history. Worth some exposure but this isn’t a lights out play.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – RSJ is a huge boom or bust play that will probably have ownership north of 40% in most GPPs. He will win or wreck, there is rarely an in between. He desperately needs a win so his already aggressive style will be turned way up. A good play obviously, but I may not aim to be overweight on him.
Brennan Poole – Finished 16th in the chaotic Daytona 500 but wrecked in the fairly tame Dega race in June. Equipment isn’t great but worth a look for carnage.
JJ Yeley – JJ Yeley is a really solid plate racer but this equipment is sketchy. Good place differential look but play him knowing the equipment may not hold.
Quin Houff – Probably a fade, if not less than 5% ownership. Houff doesn’t have much in the way of impressive plate finishes, and things would have to very chaotic for him to be in play.
Timmy Hill – I probably wont go north of 10% ownership for Timmy. He ran a clean race at Dega and was still a bunch of laps off the pace.
Ross Chastain – This car got a rain-shortened win a few years ago, but since then has been a 25th-30th place ride at place races. It starts so far back though, it will probably be a super chalky play. I don’t mind being a little underweight here, becuase this equipment isnt the best…but ultimately this is probably a good play.
Joey Gase – Same equipment as Poole and Yeley, but a much better starting spot. Gase has pretty consistently put this car in the 20s and should do it again this week. A nice pivot off Ross.
James Davison – Obviously in play due to his starting spot, but I beleive this to be Davisons first plate race start, so be very careful.
Josh Bilicki – A couple years ago, this car has a tremendous streak of decent runs at Daytona. Since then, they have run more sparingly but I anticipate they will try to go the distance this weekend. A good carnage play.
Brendan Gaughan – My favorite play on the slate. Gaughn is a stud on plate races. This is essentially an RCR car with a very solid plate racer driving it…and he starts dead last! Low risk with a high chance to hit the optimal.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.