Hello again Army, and welcome to the second half of this double-header weekend! We have another 311 miles at Dover today, with the field set quite a bit differently than what we saw yesterday. Some stuff will be the same, but some will be different, so let’s take a look at how we can navigate this one.
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Dover International Speedway
Same track/number of laps as yesterday, but today we see the field set differently. This should benefit drivers that do better with more practice (aka Kyle Busch), and could help drivers that should have performed much better than they did (Byron and most of the value drivers, namely).
Welcome to the Chalkfest 311
The field was set based on how drivers finished yesterday, which like the second Michigan race, has created a lot of very strong plays that will undoubtedly be major chalk. That’s not necessarily a bad thing! It just means we’ll have to get a little creative, but that’s any weekend, right? Let’s go over the drivers first, and then explore some options to be different from the field without killing our chances of actually winning.
The Field
Hybrids
Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Truex, Harvick, and Elliott. These guys are the cream of the crop today and offer both huge floors and massive ceilings. Be sure you’re playing the crap out of them, because there’s a better chance that we see at least two of them in the winning lineup than not. I would almost bet the house on them being necessary chalk today. Almost.
For basic cash games, start with Hamlin and Kyle Busch. For ladders, feel free to swap Busch out for Truex (or if you want, stack them…it can be done without having to use the punts). For GPP, tell the DS to just plaster them all over the place. More on that later!
Dominators
Despite what the race calculator says, the dominators are mostly optional today. By that, I’m talking about those starting up front – DiBenedetto and Almirola, mainly. There’s always a chance one of them could lead most of stage one and finish strong enough to be in the winning lineup, so definitely have at least some exposure to them, but don’t feel like you HAVE to…especially in cash games. Do NOT play them in cash games!
A note on DiBenedetto, as scary as it sounds, don’t forget that he led 93 laps at Bristol last year and has a better car this year. He’s not a slam dunk play by any means, but he’s worth at least sprinkling around! Also remember that Almirola has lots of dominator upside when he does get the lead, which he’ll have a decent chance of doing that to start. These guys aren’t requirements by any means, but you’d be doing yourself a disservice by fading them completely.
The other strong option here is Keselowski, who would normally be borderline hybrid given his price/starting position, but the hybrids are just way too strong to put him up there with them. For that reason, again, keep him in GPP today. Logano finishes up the bunch, and while his chances aren’t very good, he’s still worth at least sprinkling around just in case. Remember, we need some pivots! If you aren’t using them on DraftKings as a dominator, be sure you are using them on FanDuel because they are much better options over there.
Aug 22, 2020; Dover, Delaware, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) lead the field during the NASCAR Cup Series at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Studs / value studs
Thanks to an early exit yesterday, Kurt will be starting 28th today. Yes, he’s moving to the back to start, but that will have virtually zero impact on him, so don’t worry about it. He comes in at an attractive price, so you can plug him into your cash game lineups if you’re running two hybrids (if you’re doing three of them, like for a ladder, you won’t be able to take him). For GPP, you can either run a healthy chunk of him (good chalk), or if you want, you can skip him in favor of loading up on more of the hybrids. Both are viable options, it’ll just depend on where you want to make your moves.
Bowyer is up next, and I love him in this spot. He sat in the top-5 all day yesterday, which tells me that with a good pit stop or two, he could grab some lead laps today. With Kurt only being slightly more expensive, I think we’ll see Bowyer‘s ownership a bit lower than it deserves to be, so I love him as both a pivot or a stacking option. Even with the different in starting position, I think Bowyer has a comparable ceiling, mainly because of the partial dominator upside, and because he’s a very strong option for a top-5.
After that we have Bowman, Byron, Bell, and Kenseth. I don’t like one more than any of the others, as they’re all sort of the same play, just priced differently. I listed them in the order of which I think they have the strongest finishing position potential, though I will say that Kenseth is fairly under-priced for the upside he has. Considering price, Kenseth is my favorite option. Considering raw upside, it’s Bowman. For the one I think could surprise us the most, if they get that car dialed in, it would be Byron.
FanDuel studs
Bowyer is probably my favorite overall play, followed by Kurt. Some more interesting options would be Keselowski/Logano, Johnson, and Stenhouse. I don’t think they’ll see as much ownership as the others, but they have top-10 upside (they all finished inside the top-10 yesterday) and could keep up with the more expensive drivers that don’t lead any laps. I like this group better than the Bowman group mentioned earlier.
Also, Custer finished 11th yesterday, and I don’t see people rushing out to play him starting 10th today. If he can make a few improvements, he might be able to snag a top-10, so be sure to play him too. I would load up on these seven drivers as primary FanDuel stud options (the Bowman group can also be used here, but I like these other drivers better).
Reddick and Bell are also worth a mention. Bell might be more popular with his starting position, but Reddick I think has the better upside. Won’t be very popular either, I don’t think (nudge nudge wink wink).
Value drivers
Outside of Ty, who isn’t in play today, the value drivers didn’t do a ton for us yesterday. Alas, we still need them, so let’s take a look.
Nemechek had the most success out of the rest of the group, and even though he’s more expensive than they are, I like him the best. Preece is a close second, and I think these two stand out well above the others. For cash games I would take Nemechek if salary allows (Preece if not). For ladders and GPP, I don’t mind stacking them if it means you can grab three hybrids.
For pivots, look at Wallace and Suarez. Their salaries, starting positions, and raw upside sort of balance out, but I would give the edge to Wallace overall. I would try to avoid them in cash if at all possible.
Punts
I don’t mind taking some shots with Yeley, but the others don’t do much for me. Use with caution, DraftKings only.
Quick recap
Hybrids (main targets)
- Hamlin/Kyle Busch/Truex, Harvick/Elliott
Dominators (1 at the absolute most, but they are not requirements today)
- Primary – DiBenedetto, Almirola
Studs
- Kurt, Bowyer
- DraftKings Pivots – Bowman, Byron, Bell, Kenseth
- FanDuel pivots – Bowyer/Keselowski/Logano/Johnson/Kurt, Stenhouse, Custer/Reddick, Bell
Value drivers
- Nemechek, Preece
- Pivots – Wallace, Suarez
Punts (DK GPP only)
- Yeley/LaJoie
Closing thoughts
Now that we’re at the end, let’s go over some ways to be a little different in GPP, or how to approach it in general.
For starters, I think the best use of the dominator stacking feature would be to use it on the five hybrids. I would mark them all and tell the DS to cram them in (perhaps “at least 2” or similar). For DraftKings I wouldn’t include anybody else, but for FanDuel I don’t mind also including Bowyer, Keselowski, and Logano (using the same “at least” setting).
Another option would be to use a dominator starting up front. I already went over them earlier, but I just want to reaffirm the fact that DiBenedetto and Almirola do have a realistic path of being in the winning lineup, so if nothing else, at least sprinkle them around some. Do not stack them.
Also for DraftKings, using Kenseth, Nemechek, and Preece together in a lineup will allow you to run three hybrids together without having to use a punt. However, if you want to run Harvick, you may have to drop to a punt or use two hybrids and a stud instead. Either way, it’s a viable combo that wouldn’t really be useful on FanDuel, so try to get more of your exposure to them here.
For FanDuel, to go along with the hybrids and studs, I think somebody like Stenhouse or Custer/Bell could be useful to grab an inexpensive top-10. Also, if you want some Reddick exposure, do it here. He has top-10 upside and probably won’t see much exposure.
Nemechek is the lowest I would consider going for FanDuel, but I think Stenhouse is the stronger option. I would limit myself to just one of the cheap options here, and favor paying down a little for your hybrids/studs (Bowyer, Keselowski etc).
That’s all for this one. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!