Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We head to Loudon this week for a trip around their track, which is a nice change of pace from all of the 1.5-mile speedways we’ve seen lately. A change in scenery means a change in our DFS approach, so let’s go over what we need to know!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
NHMS is a neat track, but it’s a bit unique in how it plays out for us. It’s technically a short track, being only about a mile long, but we only have about 300 laps, which is fewer than what we had at Texas (and isn’t that many more than the other 1.5-mile tracks). When we think “short track” we tend to think of Bristol/Martinsville and their 500 laps, but that’s not the case here. With that in mind, let’s go over what we need to know before we start building.
Finally switching gears
I’m inclined to lean towards using two dominators in all formats on both sites. I don’t mind running some solo or three dominator lineups, but I wouldn’t go crazy with those. With all of the strong finishing position/place differential plays, and how cheap a lot of them are, I just don’t see those three dominator lineups really paying off here, not with only 300 laps to go around.
Phoenix and Richmond are our best bets when comparing how drivers could do here compared to other similar tracks. That also means how we approach those tracks can play out here, and if that didn’t ring a bell for you already, that means I don’t want anything to do with the punts here.
Jul 16, 2017; Loudon, NH, USA; Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) reacts as he holds a lobster after finishing first in the Overton’s 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
If you don’t remember, those in the back tend to get locked down in what I call “staggered formation hell” which means you’ll see the back drivers -8, -7, -5, -4, -3 laps down, rather than all of them being on about the same lap or so. This isn’t a chaotic track, so those drivers won’t get the free positions they would get when we see the chaos unfold. All in all, that gives them a very small chance of paying off at all, so I would rather just avoid them. Basically, from Hill on down (on DraftKings’ pricing), I would just avoid them.
The Field
Dominators
It should be no surprise that Hamlin is the top option here. Not only is he the “short/flat track guy” but well, you’ve seen how he’s been in 2020. He starts up front, giving him a pretty high chance of leading early, because I don’t really see Almirola holding him off. For cash games I would take Hamlin as your primary dominator. For GPP you can load up on him, or use Almirola as a pivot. Other pivot options here could be Kyle Busch (you can use him as a primary or secondary option), or to a lesser extent, Keselowski/Elliott (I like these five in the order I’ve listed them here).
For our secondary dominators, I just love Truex again this week. He’s led a massive amount of laps here and at Richmond (596 in the last 6 races here, 970 at Richmond in the last 7 races there), and I don’t see why he couldn’t sit up front again for a while today. The Hamlin/Truex combo is my favorite today.
Kyle Busch is also up there, as these are the kinds of tracks that he can dominate at, even in 2020 where he can’t practice. If you want to play the Candy Man, do it here (I prefer him as a secondary dominator option, but you can also use him as a direct pivot to Hamlin).
Aside from those two, other secondary dominator options include Harvick, Elliott, Keselowski, Logano/Blaney…in roughly that order.
Studs
Bell is once again a top option here, starting 35th and not being as expensive as he had been at other tracks. It seems like the team struggles a bit at the speedways, but these other types of tracks is where he’s been shining (he also has lots of strong history here and at other short tracks in XF). With that in mind, he’s a favorite play in all formats for me.
Jones isn’t too far behind, and I like him in all formats if you can fit him in. I don’t know that he’ll be a requirement for cash or anything, so if you can’t afford him there, don’t sweat it. Just make sure you’re playing him in GPP!
Speaking of which, I love DiBenedetto and Kenseth as strong GPP options/pivots (they’re also fine for cash). I love stacking them or mixing and matching them with the others here, as I think there’s a good chance at least one of them is in the winning lineup today. For strictly GPP purposes, I like them better than Jones. I think they’re great for both DK and FD alike!
I’m not as big on Blaney as others are, at least not on DK. I don’t think he pays off his salary there since I don’t see him dominating. I think he’s a good option on FD though, and that’s where I recommend getting exposure to him.
Kurt is a decent GPP option as well, and carries some dominator upside (some…not a ton). Bowyer too, but he’s a notch or two below Kurt. I wouldn’t go crazy with these two, but they make good pivots to have exposure to.
Finally, I kind of like Byron since he’s been making improvements here, but I do like the other options better. Still, be sure to have at least a little bit of exposure to him in GPP (think of him as a riskier DiBenedetto/Kenseth). Johnson continues to slip, and this isn’t a fantastic track for him by any means, so I’m not very big on him. His starting position is about the only thing that puts him in play at all today, and it’s not by very much. If you want to just fade him, I won’t argue against it.
Value studs
Ty saw a nice price reduction, but as for why, I have no idea. He’s a very strong option in this price range, and I think another top-15 is within reach. I like him in all formats on both sites.
Our favorite wildcard play, Stenhouse, is in play this week with how deep in the field he’s starting. While this isn’t exactly the kind of track I would be comfortable jumping on him, it’s not impossible for him to grab a top-15 (or better) finish, so I would have exposure to him in case he can do that instead of just crash himself out again. High risk, high reward, so GPP only!!
Like Blaney, I think Custer and Reddick make solid FD options here, but I’m not too big on them paying off on DK. I would probably take one or the other per lineup, but definitely have exposure to them because both have legitimate top-10, or even top-5 upside here. If you’re looking for ways to be different on FD, they make great options!
Value / punts
I won’t say it often, but Suarez is the man down low today. This is one of the few tracks where he can not only keep up, but move up naturally (skill comes more into play a bit more here than just raw horsepower). He’s cheap and with how deep he’s starting, I’m perfectly fine using him in all formats. If you’d prefer to pay up, or want to pair them together, I love Nemechek here too. He has a little more natural upside, but you will have to pay for it. Still, these two are both fantastic options.
If you aren’t using Suarez in cash, be sure you are in GPP!
Buescher/LaJoie/Preece are all in play as well, and make good pivots here. I would give Buescher the highest natural finishing position upside of the group, so he’d be my choice on FD, but all three are in play on DK as GPP pivots.
McDowell has looked great, even surprising me at the 1.5-mile tracks, and I suspect he’ll have success here too. The problem is that he’s starting 18th, so he doesn’t have that huge ceiling anymore. Still, he can be sprinkled in, but I don’t know that he’ll have enough of a ceiling to outscore these other options.
Newman has a good starting position, but he just hasn’t really “had it” much since his return. That makes me not love him, but I’m at least mildly warm towards him, so try to at least sprinkle him around. This isn’t a really great place for Austin to shine, so…meh.
Quick recap
Dominators (2 for cash, 1-2 for GPP)
- Primary – Hamlin, Almirola/Elliott/Keselowski/Kyle Busch
- Secondary – Truex, Kyle Busch, Harvick/Elliott, Keselowski/Logano/Blaney
- Solo – Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch
Studs
- Bell, Jones, DiBenedetto/Kenseth
- Pivots – Blaney, Kurt/Bowyer, Byron, Johnson
Value studs
- Ty, Stenhouse, Custer/Reddick
Value drivers
- Suarez/Nemechek
- Pivots – Buescher, LaJoie, Preece, Newman/McDowell
Punts
- I’d rather pay up to the value drivers here
Closing thoughts
Not much to say here, time is short. Don’t go overboard on the dominators and mind those pivots. Smash in those mid-ranged options, especially on FanDuel. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!