Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 8/29:
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -14.0
I’ll get started with the Magic, the big news here is that Aaron Gordon has officially left the bubble meaning he will be out for this one, so we don’t need to play the waiting game on his status. With Gordon out again we can go back to guys like James Ennis, Gary Clark, and even gives DJ Augustin a few more opportunities. Nikola Vucevic has been the Bucks Achilles heal this series, they just don’t have an answer for him, he’s an elite play but is priced up due to his recent performances. I still think he’s a great option as that pick and roll will get him open looks at a bunch of three’s. Guys like Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross are excellent options and really pretty cheap, as they have the type of game that can do damage against the Bucks. Evan Fournier finally looked good in his last game after looking non-existent in the first three games of this series, I’ll go right back to him here. Lastly, Markelle Fultz is pretty cheap as well and makes sense as a secondary option or if you’re looking for some value. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 62.7 DraftKings points per game in seven games against the Magic this season, I don’t think I need to tell you that he’s an elite play here. I do think the Bucks take care of business here and it will be on the back of Giannis. Khris Middleton looked bad almost all game in game four but was able to scratch across 39 DraftKings points which gives him two straight games with at least 38. I like him here, he’s going to bust out at some point. Eric Bledsoe has at least 28 DraftKings points in three of his last four games in this series, the minutes are consistent a good option in the mid-range at guard if you need one. Lastly, Brook Lopez has at least 24.5 DraftKings points in three straight games after having a dud in game one, he’s a nice pay down option at center should you need one.
5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Giannis Antetkounmpo
4-star play: Evan Fournier, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Terrence Ross, Markelle Fultz
Deeper Value: Gary Clark, James Ennis
GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Hou -5.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has at least 44 DraftKings points in three games and has finally figured out how to be productive against this Houston defense, he’s too cheap here. Steven Adams wasn’t all that impressive last time out and may be due to the little knee issue he has. I don’t hate the price tag and when he’s in he should dominate this small Rockets frontcourt, he makes sense as a secondary option. Chris Paul is playing massive minutes and has at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’s a solid cash option. Danilo Gallinari and Dennis Schroeder both have been playing well and are excellent secondary options and are solid in GPPs as well. Gallinari is a guy that I’m a little less interested in however, he had a dud last time out and doesn’t quite have the same upside as a guy like Schroeder. Lastly, Luguentz Dort will be out there as much as he can in order to guard James Harden, so if you need a dart throw on a guy that’ll see minutes I guess there’s an option for you. From the Rockets, we finally get Russell Westbrook back here which will change up this offense a bit. Westbrook on his own is a solid play at under $10k, he’s averaging 54.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Thunder this season. James Harden’s usage will take a hit here as he won’t need to run the offense “as much”, that said he’ll still be a dominant presence with massive upside. Eric Gordon has four straight games of at least 30 DraftKings points, but he’s the guy I’m a little less high on now with Westbrook in. He’s more of a GPP option for me now and becomes a bit more volatile. Robert Covington has kind of fallen off lately, although he did see his usual minutes last time out, he’s more of a GPP option as it looks like they’ll play the hot hand between him and Jeff Green. Lastly, Jeff Green and Danuel House both make nice secondary options in all formats.
5-star play: James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Danuel House, Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroeder, Eric Gordon, Jeff Green
Deeper Value: PJ Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroeder
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -13.5
We’ll get things started with the Blazers here, and the big news here is that Damian Lillard will miss due to his finger injury, which all but seals the fate of this team. Lillard being out will open up a ton of usage and opportunities for this Blazers team; below is how the rest of team fares without their superstar…
- CJ McCollum – 33.4% usage rate; 1.2 fpm
- Carmelo Anthony – 28.7% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Gary Trent – 16.7% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
Jusuf Nurkic doesn’t have a sample size that we can look at here due to being out for the regular season but he’s still a good option. CJ McCollum is the guy you’ll want here, he’ll take control of the offense. Carmelo Anthony makes for solid secondary options as well if you fall in this range. Lastly, Hassan Whiteside may start again for this team but it really looked like he clogged up the lane last game and was pulled due to it, if he starts he’s a solid option but I’m not considering him if he doesn’t. From the Lakers, you know where the production is coming from and it’s LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Both are solid plays here, if I needed to pick one it would be LeBron just because Davis may have his hands full with Nurkic whereas LeBron has nobody that can guard him on Portland. Both guys were on their way to huge games last time out but Davis left with injury (shocker) and LeBron was pulled at the end of the third because they were beating them so badly. The only other guy I would really have interest in is Kyle Kuzma, that said, he hasn’t done anything this series, so he’s a deeper GPP play than anything.
5-star play: CJ McCollum, LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Hassan Whiteside, Carmelo Anthony, Kyle Kuzma, Gary Trent, Jusuf Nurkic
Deeper Value: Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Kuzma, Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic
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NBA Lock of the Day: CJ McCollum (DK – $8.1k; FD – $7.2k)
This lock is really a pretty obvious one, he won’t be sneaky and will likely be one of the higher owned plays of the day but for good reason. As I mentioned, Damian Lillard will miss this game and opens up all the usage in this offense. With Lillard off the court, this season McCollum has a 33.4% usage rate averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute. In a game where the Blazers need to win to avoid elimination, I would expect he gets as much run as he can handle and is an elite play in all formats here, this is a spot where you don’t get cute. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 6.5x I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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