Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 8/19:
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -11.0
Starting with the Nets, Caris LeVert looked great in game one playing 35 minutes, I would think he’s right there again here but did see a price bump and a fairly decent one at that. Jarrett Allen looked better than I anticipated last game in a tough matchup against this frontcourt, you can make a case for him in GPP if you’re in this range and looking for a center. The only other guy I would have interest in is Joe Harris, he looked great last game and gives this team the extra scoring they need. Coming off a 31 point DraftKings outing I think there’s still some meat on the bone with his current price. From the Raptors, I was all over Pascal Siakam and his price tag last time out, and, well, it didn’t budge. I love him here again. Big men against the Nets has been a thing all season long as Siakam has proven, averaging 42.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Nets. At $7.5k he is a phenomenal mid-range play at power forward here. Kyle Lowry has had similar success against the Nets this season, I don’t hate the price tag but I also don’t love it. He’s more of a secondary option and more than useable in GPPs. Fred VanVleet showed off his upside last game going for 60 fantasy points, he’s a big part of this offense and can get hot in a hurry. I wouldn’t expect Norman Powell only played 17 minutes last game with OG Anunuboy returning to play and snagging his minutes back. Lastly, Serge Ibaka looked good last game and is in the same boat as Siakam with a great matchup, just hoping we can get a few more minutes out of him.
5-star play: Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka
Deeper Value: Marc Gasol
GPP Sleeper: Joe Harris, OG Anunoby
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Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 217.5
Vegas Spread: Den -4.0
Starting with the Jazz, Mike Conley returned to the bubble but will be forced to quarantine and miss at least this game and maybe one or two more. Going back to Jordan Clarkson here isn’t as cut and dry as it was on Monday, but he still makes for a solid option. Donovan Mitchell went absolutely banana’s and put the team on his back last game. He went for 81 DraftKings points and saw his price come all the way up over $9k, I’ll let other people chase that game, I’m not paying this price for Mitchell in anything other than a GPP. Rudy Gobert looked pretty much how I expected him to look in a tough matchup, he did his job and walked away with a decent day. I don’t hate the price tag on him, he’s a playable center on this slate. Joe Ingles had a nice outing last game and sees a nice boost with Conley off the court, he’s a solid GPP option while Royce O’Neale is too cheap even after a bit of a dud last game, he makes for an excellent source of value. Before the final two seeding games, he was getting minutes in the high 30’s and producing nicely, I like him as a value option as well. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic played a ton of minutes but with some help from overtime in game one, I don’t mind going right back to him here, he likes this matchup even against one of the better defenders in the league in Gobert. He’s averaging, 62 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Jazz this season, I love Jokic at this price tag. Michael Porter feels like more of a GPP option with Murray absorbing more and more usage in this offense. Speaking of… Jamaal Murray went blow for blow with Mitchell last game on his way to 59 DraftKings points, I like the price much more on him compared to that of Mitchell.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamaal Murray
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles, Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, Michal Porter Jr., Paul Millsap
Deeper Value: Royce O’Neale
GPP Sleeper: Joe Ingles, Jerami Grant, Michael Porter Jr.
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -4.5
Starting with the Sixers, Ben Simmons will continue to be out here which opens the road for Joel Embiid to lead the way. Embiid has been a bit of a hazard to end the season as it felt like every other quarter he was being helped to the locker room. That said, he’s a great play against a Celtics team that struggles with opposing big men, proving this with a 53 point DraftKings outing in game one. Tobias Harris and Al Horford are similar prices but I much prefer Harris, I still don’t think Brett Brown has figured out how to use Al Horford and that was pretty evident in game one. Harris has a 25.5% usage rate and averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Simmons off the court this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Brown lets Shake Milton continue to run the point here, he has not looked good and Alec Burks seems to be the better option off the bench. Keep an eye on a starting lineup, I wouldn’t be shocked if he decided to make a change. Lastly, Josh Richardson makes sense as a secondary option as well. From the Celtics, just as everyone was getting healthy, Gordon Hayward leaves in crutches and will be out for around four weeks. The rest of the offense will see a boost due to this, the biggest boost going to Jayson Tatum who averages a 31.6% usage rate and 1.23 fantasy points per minute with Hayward off the court on the season. Kemba Walker did just fine in his 35 minutes of work in game one, but we need more out of him at this price tag to make him worth it. I don’t hate going right back to him here especially now that the Celtics will be missing a key. As far as Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart go, they both see a nice boost and Brown is coming off a fantastic game in which he went out and dropped a 50 burger. Lastly, Daniel Theis has a tough matchup here and has struggled with it so far this season, he’s a guy I’ll likely fade until he figures something out against this team.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Tobias Harris, Alec Burks, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Alec Burks, Shake Milton (if starting)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.5
This game leads the slate with an implied total of 229.5 and should be a fun one to watch. We’ll start with the Mavericks, Kristaps Porzingis was thrown of the game in game one for no good reason but is questionable here with knee soreness. Personally I think he plays and if so he makes for a solid option against a team that can struggle against bigs. Luka Doncic dropped 65 DraftKings points and other than committing 11 turnovers, really wasn’t all too phased by the Clippers defense. He’s a great play and would become a core if Porzingis misses this one. After those two there is a steep drop off to guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry who are GPP options here. I do like the price tag on Curry who should see 30+ minutes. From the Clippers, we know how good Kawhi Leonard can be in the playoffs and in a great matchup against the Mavericks at $10k, sign me up after he just dropped 59 DraftKings points on this team on Monday. Paul George is averaging 42.6 DraftKings points per game against the Mavs on the season in three games, he’s one of the best scorers in the league and will always be in play here. Lou Williams makes sense here as well as he basically runs the second unit and isn’t overly priced here. He played over 30 minutes last game which is intriguing after he had issues getting consistent minutes in the seeding games. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell isn’t in play for me until he’s back up to his full minutes; he only played 14 in game one. Ivica Zubac only played 22 minutes in game one but did produce nicely in those minutes, I like him as a GPP option.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzigis, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Lou Williams
Deeper Value: Ivica Zubac, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Ivica Zubac, Lou Williams
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NBA Lock of the Day: Royce O’Neale (DK – $3.7k; FD – $4.4k)
James Harden did what he needed to do yesterday, but didn’t really get me to where I wanted him as a lock, but didn’t hurt you in the end if you played him being that he was upwards of 80% owned. I’m going to go right back to Royce O’Neale here even after a bad game one. He simply just shot bad going 1-6 and just three points. However, the rebounds were there with seven and he got in a bit of foul trouble and still played 31 minutes. He makes for a phenomenal value option on DraftKings and a cheap power forward option on FanDuel. I’m hoping people jump off O’Neale after his last game and keeps ownership down, but I’ll go right back to the well here, doing so gives you much more flexibility when filling out the rest of your lineup. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 6.5x I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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