Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 8/17:
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 216.0
Vegas Spread: Den -5.0
Finally, playoff basketball! No more dealing with trying to find which minimum priced guy will go for 60, down to the nitty-gritty now. We’ll get things started with the underdog Jazz here. The big news here is that Mike Conley has been ruled out for this game which will open up minutes and opportunities in the backcourt. One guy, in particular, stands out, Jordan Clarkson is $3.8k on DraftKings, which is far too cheap for the spot he’ll be put in. With Conley, Bogdanovic, and Davis off the court this season, Clarkson has a 26.1% usage rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute. At this price tag, he’ll be one of the more popular options on the slate. Donovan Mitchell should also see more ball-handling duties, he sees a +0.8 fantasy point per minute increase with Conley off the court this season. Rudy Gobert gets a tough matchup but just scored 43.25 DraftKings points in this matchup a few games ago. Joe Ingles is a solid GPP option while Royce O’Neale is too cheap. Before the final two seeding games, he was getting minutes in the high 30’s and producing nicely, I like him as a value option as well. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic under $9k feels far too cheap considering he just dropped a 60 burger on the Jazz a few games ago, the game did go to OT, but still. He’s averaging, 64.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Jazz this season, I love Jokic at this price tag. Michael Porter feels like more of a GPP option since we don’t really know what Malone’s plans are for him in the postseason, I would think the plan is to run him pretty heavy after he put up some massive performance in the bubble already. Jamaal Murray is averaging 47.8 DraftKings points per game against the Jazz in two games on the season, I like the price on him as well but feels more like a GPP play due to his inconsistencies.
5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Donovan Mitchell, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles, Michal Porter Jr., Jamaal Murray, Paul Millsap
Deeper Value: Jordan Clarkson, Royce O’Neale
GPP Sleeper: Joe Ingles, Jerami Grant, Michael Porter Jr.
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Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -9.5
Starting with the Nets, Caris LeVert ended the regular season with a bang going for at least 55 DraftKings points in each of the games. This is a tough matchup against a good Raptors defense but if he gets the minutes that he should, he’ll be in the mid-30’s with a great chance to produce. Jarrett Allen finally started getting the run he should have been, ending the season with three straight games over 35 minutes. As long as he’s getting minutes like this he’ll be in play even at an elevated price tag, he’s proven he can be a great point per minute producer. The only other guy I would have interest in is Joe Harris and he’s more of a GPP filler at best just in case he gets hot from behind the arch. From the Raptors, I absolutely love the price tag on Pascal Siakam. Big men against the Nets has been a thing all season long as Siakam has proven, averaging 44.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Nets. At $7.5k he is a phenomenal mid-range play at power forward here. Kyle Lowry has had similar success against the Nets this season, I don’t hate the price tag but I also don’t love it. He’s more of a secondary option and more than useable in GPPs. Fred VanVleet can get hot in a hurry, before you know he’s got 40 DraftKings points. I actually think this price tag is too low for him and a guy I’ll likely be overweight on. I wouldn’t expect Norman Powell to get the same run he got to end the season, however, OG Anunoby is questionable for this game and if he needs to sit Powell could be in line for more minutes. Lastly, Serge Ibaka is questionable as well, if he’s a go I do like him as he’s done well against the Nets this season, the price tag is very appealing as well.
5-star play: Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Joe Harris, Norman Powell
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
Starting with the Sixers, Ben Simmons will continue to be out here which opens the road for Joel Embiid to lead the way. Embiid has been a bit of a hazard to end the season as it felt like every other quarter he was being helped to the locker room. That said, if he’s a go here (and he will be), he’s a great play against a Celtics team that struggles with opposing big men. Tobias Harris and Al Horford are similar prices but I much prefer Harris, I still don’t think Brett Brown has figured out how to use Al Horford. Harris has a 25.5% usage rate and averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Simmons off the court this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Brown lets Shake Milton run the point in the playoffs or if he doesn’t have full faith in the kid yet. However, Milton has been starting even with Simmons in the lineup so I would expect he’s out there in the starting lineup. I don’t love the price tag here in a bit of a tough matchup but I get it if you want to take a shot in tournaments. Lastly, Josh Richardson and Alec Burks make sense as secondary options as well. From the Celtics, it sounds like everyone is finally healthy and a full go to start the playoffs. Kemba Walker is way too cheap if he’s going to go back to seeing his minutes in the mid 30’s. This is a great matchup for him and a guy I like a good amount here. Kemba being back will take usage away from the rest of the starting five which is why I don’t love the price tag on Jayson Tatum and he really hasn’t been so hot in the bubble anyway. I’ll likely take a wait and see approach on him. As far as Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, and Marcus Smart go, Hayward feels too expensive but I will have an interest in the other two for tournaments especially. Lastly, Daniel Theis has a tough matchup here and has struggled with it so far this season, he’s a guy I’ll likely fade until he figures something out against this team.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Kemba Walker
4-star play: Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.0
This game leads the slate with an implied total of 230 and should be a fun one to watch. We’ll start with the Mavericks, and should be interesting to see who they stick on Luka Doncic. Regardless Luka will see a tough matchup here but he’s proven to be matchup proof and is a top raw option on the slate. You can beat the Clippers with big men and Kristaps Porzingis proved this a few games ago when he dropped 51.75 DraftKings points on them. The price is about where it should be and makes for an excellent play all around. After those two there is a steep drop off to guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry who are GPP options here. I do like the price tag on Curry but in the same range, I’ll just take Clarkson or O’Neale. From the Clippers, we know how good Kawhi Leonard can be in the playoffs and in a great matchup against the Mavericks at under $10k, sign me up. Paul George is averaging 44.6 DraftKings points per game against the Mavs on the season in two games, he’s one of the best scorers in the league and will always be in play here. I don’t love the price tag on Lou Williams but he can put up points in a hurry, he’s a secondary GPP option. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell is questionable here, but after missing the seeding games I don’t think he’s ready to go out and play 30 minutes just yet so Ivica Zubac’s value is still good to go here and I love the price tag on him.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzigis, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Lou Williams
Deeper Value: Ivica Zubac, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Ivica Zubac, Lou Williams
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NBA Lock of the Day: Jordan Clarkson (DK – $3.8k; FD – $4.4k)
There’s nothing sexy here as Clarkson should be pretty popular but at this price tag with the opportunity he’s going to see, it’s hard to pass up. As I mentioned earlier, Mike Conley will be out for the Jazz here which opens up a bunch of minutes and production in that backcourt. Clarkson has a 26.1% usage rate and 0.89 fantasy points per minute with Conley and Bogdanovic off the court this season. He’s averaging 30.5 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Nuggets on the season as well. His price really opens up what you’re able to do with the rest of your roster, I’ll be all over Clarkson in this spot. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 6.5x I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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