Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zac Gallen – I can’t stop my love affair of Zac Gallen. I will always point out that I just don’t understand why a franchise like the Marlins would just deal him away. He continues to impress me and I think people will look elsewhere because of how hot the A’s offense has been.
- Ross Stripling – Stripling and the Dodgers are easily the largest favorites on the slate. He has looked below-average over the last couple of starts but he gets a great spot to bounce back. We need to have short-term memory when it comes to DFS so that’s what I am suggesting here. Don’t get scared because of recent performances.
- Martin Perez – Ok, I officially feel dirty right now. I am talking about Martin Perez against the Yankees? Well, he hasn’t been all that terrible, is really cheap on DK, and the Yankees just lost LeMahieu to the IL. The lineup isn’t as intimidating as it should be as it’s relying on guys like Ford and Tauchman. This is just one of those spots where I need Perez to be serviceable.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals – Kwang-Hyun Kim
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas info
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolton Wong
GPP Note: Overall lineup has been weakened by the COVID situation.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: 28.6% K rate against LHPs this season.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Starting Pitchers:
Cardinals –
Cubs –
Rundown:
Waiting on SP and Vegas information
STL 5-star plays: B
4-star plays: Y
GPP Note: T
CHC 5-star plays: B
4-star plays: T
GPP Note: 1
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Toronto Blue Jays (-142) @ Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Cobb has been a reverse splits type of pitcher for many years now so we know that the RHBs are the ones we generally want to target him with. He has thrown the ball really well this season and the Orioles themselves are shocking a lot of people. Ryu started the season slowly but has 15 Ks over his last 2 starts (11 innings) and has allowed just 1 run in those starts.
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .327 over the last 7 days.
BAL 5-star plays: Hanser Alberto
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: Team ISO of .283 against LHPs in 2020.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-157)
Starting Pitchers:
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. This is an interesting game as the Red Sox has struggled a lot recently but they have some RHBs that have fared well against Montgomery or against LHPs. The Yankees are missing their 3 biggest bats against LHPs (Judge, LeMahieu, Stanton).
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 against LHPs in 2020.
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 against LHPs in 2020.
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-138)
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. Sanchez has been pretty bad to start the season but this Braves lineup is a weak version of itself without Albies and Acuna. Toussaint is all over the place in terms of his performance and the Nationals bats have been heating up behind Juan Soto.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over their last 7 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last 7 days.
New York Mets (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers:
Mets – Robert Gsellman
Marlins – Jordan Yamamoto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Gsellman went just 2 innings in his first start as he works on getting stretched out. Yamamoto has looked rough so far this season, hasn’t gone beyond 4 innings in a start yet, and has allowed 4 HRs in 7.1 innings on the season.
NYM 5-star plays: Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 against RHPs in 2020.
MIA 5-star plays: Jon Berti
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Team has 13 SBs over their last 6 games.
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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-140)
Starting Pitchers:
Tigers – Matthew Boyd
White Sox – Gio Gonzalez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. The White Sox have impressive history against Boyd while the Tigers are a team that are at their best when they face LHPs. This is going to be a game that I want to get multiple pieces from as I do think it plays to a double-digit total and wouldn’t be surprised to wake up Monday morning to see it has moved to 10.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, JaCoby Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .282 against LHPs in 2020.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, James McCann
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 across 207 PAs against Boyd.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-202)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Twins – Matt Wisler/Devin Smeltzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. Bubic has given up 3 HRs in his 3 starts, with 2 of those coming in his most recent start. The Twins absolutely demolished LHPs in 2019 and after starting off slow, they did a TON of damage to Lauer of the Brewers. The Twins will us an opener which muddies things a little bit but guys like Merrifield and Perez have been producing at the plate.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 against the Twins this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last 6 games.
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San Diego Padres (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Zach Davies
Rangers – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 8.5 runs. The Rangers have played 11 games at their new ballpark and there has been a total of 77 runs scored in those games. The park is playing a TON different than the old ballpark in Arlington. From my knowledge, I believe they have had the roof open just once so far and that game saw 12 runs scored.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr.
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .102 at home so far in 2020.
Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros (-154)
Starting Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. So there are a couple of things to consider and look at here. The Rockies are coming out of Coors and we generally think they take some games to re-adjust plus they traditionally haven’t been a strong road team. One of the issues for me here is that Bielak has shown reverse splits so far and he doesn’t rack up strikeouts. That brings a powerful duo like Story and Arenado into play here.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .117 on the road in 2020.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last 7 days.
Oakland Athletics (-110) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Chris Bassitt
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. This is an interesting match-up as Bassitt and Gallen have both been strong while the A’s offense is exploding, especially late in games. Gallen has made 4 starts and allowed just 7 runs this season. He has 28 Ks in his 23 innings but he has given up 4 HRs so far. Bassitt has allowed just 6 runs over his 4 starts and has 19 Ks in 22.1 innings.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: 14 HRs over their last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over their last 6 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Angels – Griffin Canning
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas Info.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last 6 games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .245 over their last 6 games.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-280)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Stripling is in a great spot here as a HUGE favorite against a team struggling to put up much from an offensive perspective over the last week. He hasn’t been very good over his last couple of starts but this seems like a great get-right spot for him. Dunn has been solid so far this season but he still can have issues with control and this is a team you can’t afford to struggle with control against.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over their last 6 games.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over their last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Minnesota Twins: You will ALWAYS find the Twins on my stack list against an LHP. I don’t care if they have been struggling against them so far this season. This team put up ridiculous numbers against LHPs in 2019 and when Donaldson is completely healthy, I expect that to continue. Nelson Cruz just destroys baseballs.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers bats are starting to click a bit more as we have seen Bellinger and Betts get hot, Muncy starting to drive the ball and the HRs keep coming. Dunn has been solid this season but he has control issues and if he walks some Dodger bats tonight, he could allow some crooked numbers.
- Chicago White Sox: The White Sox looked to wake up a bit yesterday and now they face an SP who they have dominated against over the last couple of seasons. I will not hide it, this is very much BvP related as the roster is 60 for 196 with 9 HRs and an ISO of .235 as a whole against Boyd in their careers.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Eloy has HR’d in 4 of his last 5 games. He has multiple hits in all 4 of those games as well. He is 4 for 11 in his career against Boyd and all 4 of those hits have been for extra-bases (3 of them HRs). I love the spot for the White Sox and Jimenez should be in the 5-spot and should have plenty of RBI opportunities.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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