Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Zack Wheeler – I love the match-up and I expect Wheeler to start lining up the Ks at some point in the near future. The Phillies are pretty hot right now so the W should be available for Wheeler. If we can get him to bump his K’s up just slightly, he offers a really strong floor.
- Brandon Bielak – Bielak is somebody that I was surprised by in his first start but realized that we probably can’t expect much in terms of strikeouts. He gets to take on an SF offense that has surprised a bit but is still not very good overall. I feel really strongly about him getting the W as long as he’s allowed to increase his pitch total from his last start.
- Josh Lindblom – I am a HUGE Twins fan so writing up Lindblom here is tough to do. His price point stands out to me on DK as he put up a really strong start his last time out. The Twins just struck out a bunch on Monday night against Houser and Peralta. He has to navigate a very powerful lineup but the K upside is there as the Brewers offense could see some random bullpen arms in this game.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Tyler Clippard/Devin Smeltzer
Brewers – Josh Lindblom
Rundown:
This game has no line or total yet as I assume they are waiting to verify the pitching plans of the Twins. Lindblom has flashed some strikeout upside and the Twins racked up a decent amount of strikeouts on Monday night. I generally hate teams going the openers as it really messes with how to break down games. The manager gets to mix and match how he sees fit and that’s really tough to predict.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Twins have hit 26 HRs in 16 games so far this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .663 with a 30% K rate on the season.
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Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (-155)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Touki Toussaint
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 10 runs. Toussaint has turned things around a bit but I still worry about him in tough spots. He throws a ton of pitches and can get himself in trouble. His last start was really strong overall and it’s something that could catapult him going forward. With that said, the Yankees have a team ISO of .199 against RHPs so far this season. Montgomery looked really good against BOS and then came back and was smacked in the mouth by PHI. The Braves have a pretty dangerous offense overall but they have a team ISO of just .110 and a team average of .185 against LHPs so far in 2020.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Atlanta has struck out 64 times over their last 7 games
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over their last 8 games
Chicago White Sox (-107) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Gio Gonzalez
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9.5 runs. I am really interested in this game. The Tigers keep having to face LHPs and guys keep producing. They get an SP that has struggled so far this season but they did lose CJ Cron to injury in Monday night’s game. Alexander is really interesting as he tied an MLB record in his last appearance, striking out 9 straight batters after entering the game. He finished the appearance with 10 Ks and it earned him a permanent spot in the rotation for the season, from what the reports say.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Leury Garcia, James McCann
GPP Note: CWS batters have 84 Ks over their last 8 games
DET 5-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .298 against LHPs in 2020
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Washington Nationals (-145) @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Max Scherzer
Mets – Rick Porcello
Rundown:
This game has a total set at 7.5 runs. Scherzer is making this start after leaving his last one after an inning. I do have some worries but they have no reason to force him out there, so I have to assume he is good to go. If he is good, he is rocking a 37.9% K rate on the season so far. If you take Conforto out of the equation, he has handled the rest of the Mets pretty well in his career. Porcello just shut down this Nationals offense in his last start. I don’t think highly of Porcello at all so I expect a better WAS performance against him here.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Howie Kendrick
GPP Note: Just 37 Ks over their last 6 games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: More BvP for Conforto. He is 11 for 32 with 4 HRs against Scherzer.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Andrew Kittredge/Jalen Beeks
Red Sox – Martin Perez
Rundown:
No Vegas info yet as I assume they are waiting to get official word on TB’s plans. TB has struggled overall against LHPs so far this season and it shocks me a bit because they have a few guys that have traditionally destroyed them. Perez actually shut down TB in his most recent start and he could do something similar here unless they figure out how to wake up the offense. I hate dealing with openers and trying to figure out who the long-man will be. This case is especially frustrating because it messes with the 1B position for BOS and either guy could be in play or they could get yanked early.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Michael Brosseau, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Lowe is 8 for 18 with 3 HRs against LHPs in 2020.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland or Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Really depends on who the long-reliever will be for TB.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-108) @ Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11 runs. Monday night’s game totally blew up in my face with Jon Gray struggling something fierce. Freeland has looked strong so far this season as he tries to bounce back from a horrific 2019. He was extremely strong in 2018 and was great against ARI and then last year he was dominated by ARI. I am a little shocked to see ARI as the favorite here and think that might just be a reaction to Monday night’s game. Gallen has gone through 3 of the better offenses in baseball (SD, LAD, HOU) and has held them to a combined 5 runs. He made 1 start in Coors last season and allowed 10 baserunners in 4 innings of work.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over their last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Blackmon is 18 for 30 over the last 8 games.
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Tyler Anderson
Astros – Brandon Bielak
Rundown:
This game has no Vegas info but SF has listed Tyler Anderson as the starter. Bielak has been really impressive so far, minus his 6 walks. He lines up against a pretty weak lineup so there’s a route to some solid success after his impressive first start. He threw 82 pitches and while he didn’t put up many Ks (just 1) he kept ARI off the board. Anderson went 5 innings in his first real start of the season (used as an opener previously) but this is a much tougher spot for him.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Solano is 12 for 28 over his last 7 games.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Hitting just .208 as a team over their last 7 games.
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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (-135)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rangers – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Texas opened the roof prior to Monday night’s game and we saw SEA explode for 10 runs. That ruined so much of my night as I was extremely high on Kyle Gibson. I want to be on Mike Minor but he’s been so bad so far in 2020. At some point he is going to turn it around, but will it be tonight? Gonzales has 13 Ks over his last 2 starts but he’s also allowed 4 HRs in those starts.
SEA 5-star plays: Austin Nola
4-star plays: Dylan Moore, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Nola and Moore are a combined 7 for 14 with 5 extra-base hits against LHPs in 2020.
TEX 5-star plays: Todd Frazier
4-star plays: Joey Gallo, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Frazier is 9 for 17 with 4 extra-base hits against LHPs in 2020.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-142)
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Mike Fiers
Angels – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Monday night’s game was full of action as the Angels picked up a big HR from Trout in the 8th to pull out a 10-9 victory. Fiers hasn’t fared well against some of the Angels lineup and Trout is just on another planet right now. Fiers is having a hard time getting RHBs out so far this season and has just 5 Ks through 3 starts. Bundy has looked really good for the Angels and I like his future pitching on the West Coast. He’s traditionally been a reverse splits pitcher and that could haunt him a bit here. I still like his upside but the OAK offense is dangerous against RHPs.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Khris Davis is 6 for 16 with 3 HRs against Bundy
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Trout is 12 for 31 with 5 HRs, 4 2Bs, and 6 walks against Fiers.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – NA
Cardinals – NA
Rundown:
Series PPD due to St Louis positive tests.
PIT 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
STL 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-164)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards
Dodgers – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Stripling is 3-0 so far this season as he beat this SD squad the last time he was on the mound. He wasn’t extremely sharp but did rack up 7 Ks while allowing 4 runs. He has now thrown 92 pitches in 2 of his 3 starts so maybe Dave Roberts is allowing him to actually pitch. Richards is a guy that has flashed upside throughout his career but seems to never put it all together. This is a tough spot with all the power of the Dodgers but the total is pretty low so we might not see all that much offense here after Monday night’s game finished 2-1.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Tatis Jr is 3 for 5 with 2 HRs against Stripling
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 7 games
Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-170)
Starting Pitchers:
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Dodgers – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8 runs. Hernandez threw just 66 pitches in his first start and was electric against BAL. He struck out 5 in 4.1 innings while allowing just 2 hits. Hernandez gave up 20 HRs in 82.1 innings in 2019 so the HR ball could come into play against the power of the Blue Jays. Ryu looked really bad in his first two starts and then came out and looked like his dominant self against ATL in his most recent start.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 against LHPs in 2020.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 against RHPs in 2020.
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds (-185)
Starting Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
The game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Castillo has 26 Ks so far in 17 innings but has looked pretty pedestrian in each of his last 2 starts after dominating the Tigers to open the season. He gets to face the Royals at home so that should help him get back to being the exciting arm that he had been last season. He held opponents to an average of .191 at home in 2019. Bubic doesn’t excite me much but the Reds offense isn’t all that dangerous at the moment. He does have to navigate Castellanos-Suarez, which won’t be easy.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Perez is 12 for 28 with 5 extra-base hits over his last 7 games.
CIN 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Matt Davidson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs in 2020.
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Starting Pitchers:
Orioles – Alex Cobb
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. I am HUGE on Wheeler in this spot. The Orioles lineup just isn’t very dangerous and Wheeler has looked really comfortable for PHI, even though he isn’t striking many guys out at this point. Cobb has looked like the pitcher he used to be pre-surgeries, in his TB days. This is just an extremely tough spot for him as the PHI offense is clicking right now.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over their last 7 games.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorius
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 8 games
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Indians (-148)
Starting Pitchers:
Cubs – Jon Lester
Indians – Adam Plutko
Rundown:
This game opened with a total set at 8 runs. The Indians were originally set to have Clevinger take the mound but he was disciplined for a rules violation (assume it’s a COVID related rule). Plutko made 1 start earlier and was really strong but has made just 1 appearance in a game since July 28th. Lester has just 4 hits allowed in 11 innings so far but he has just 5 Ks as well. It looks like he is being brought along pretty slowly as he was removed after 5 no-hit innings in his first start. He did throw 89 pitches in his most recent start so he should be close to where he needs to be.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: 42 strikeouts over their last 4 games
CLE 5-star plays: Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: 74 Ks over their last 7 games.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate (will update once all SPs are known)
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- Houston Astros: The Astros certainly haven’t been all that great yet this season. They are going to end up with one of the highest team totals, outside of Coors on this slate. I also think they are going to go a little lower owned than they should be. They get to take on an LHP at home, where those Crawford Boxes in Left-Field are just asking for some balls tonight. It’s about time we see the top of this order explode.
- Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies could have easily been my top stack. The offense is clicking right now. They get to take on an SP that we traditionally stack against in Alex Cobb. If they can get McCutchen and Hoskins to figure it out in the 1-2 spots, then they could really be dangerous today.
- New York Yankees: Yeah you read this correctly, no Coors in my top 3 stacks. I know Coors has the highest game total on the slate but I just think highly of Gallen and I do like what I have seen from Freeland in having a bounceback season. The Yankees lost Stanton for up to a month, which is really tough, but they have the pieces to fill in (maybe not totally replace) for him. This game has a total set at 10 so there should be some scoring and Toussaint while coming off of a strong start, allows a lot of baserunners.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Indians
I could go with the chalk and call Mike Trout because he’s rolling and has OWNED Mike Fiers in his career. I am sure I could easily go with guys like Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto, any Coors bats, or Fernando Tatis Jr. I am going with Franmil Reyes who faces an SP that he is 4 for 5 with an HR against. Lester hasn’t been throwing it by the bats yet so Reyes is in a great spot for HARD contact.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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