Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the two pitchers that popped out to me at first glance.
- Patrick Corbin – Corbin isn’t the ultra-safe top tier option we generally look for but I just love his K upside, even if he allows an HR or two against the Mets. He flashes such strong swing and miss stuff with his slider that his floor is so high with those Ks, especially on DK.
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson takes on a struggling offense (offense has struggled much of the season but is really struggling as Lewis has turned a bit cold as well). He flashed K upside against a tough OAK lineup in his last start and gets to pitch in the newly minted pitcher’s park in Texas.
- Dustin May – If May would be allowed to throw 95-100 pitches per start, we could be looking at a stud already. His FB is one of the top 5 or 6 on the season in terms of average velocity and as he learns to pitch to MLB hitters, his upside is only going to get better. He struck out 8 against this same Padres lineup in his last start.
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Full Count Breakdown for MLB DFS:
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN)
Starting Pitchers:
Twins – Randy Dobnak
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Randy Dobnak has now gone 15 innings on the season, allowing just 1 run on 9 hits. He doesn’t have much for K upside but this MIL lineup is striking out at over a 30% rate on the season. Houser has looked equally as sharp and he has shown more K upside. The problem is that the Twins lineup is far more dangerous than the Brewers right now.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Twins have hit 25 HRs in 15 games so far this season.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .636 with a 30% K rate on the season.
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-142)
Starting Pitchers:
Braves – Sean Newcomb
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Newcomb has had trouble throwing strikes so far this season. His longest outing is 4.2 innings but he has thrown 82, 79, and 92 pitches in his 3 starts. He does a lot of nibbling and walks can happen which then leads to big innings. He has had success against PHI as the roster has just 8 hits in 65 PAs against him (11 walks). Nola has 19 Ks in 11.1 innings and is coming off of a dominant start against the Yankees in which he struck out 12 in 6 innings while allowing just a solo HR.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Atlanta has struck out 58 times over their last 6 games
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Harper is 3 for 9 with 2 HRs and 7 walks against Newcomb.
Chicago White Sox (-148) @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers:
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Tigers – Michael Fulmer/Daniel Norris
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Keuchel has done a great job of limiting hard contact so far this season but he isn’t a big-time K guy, even though he picked up 8 against MIL. Fulmer has made just 1 appearance so far this season thanks to games being PPD due to COVID. He threw 47 pitches in that one and the reports have been how the Tigers are going to take it really easy on him in his return from multiple surgeries. ***UPDATE*** Hearing that Daniel Norris may follow Fulmer.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: CWS batters have 78 Ks over their last 7 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .298 against LHPs in 2020
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Washington Nationals (-119) @ New York Mets
Starting Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Mets – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. I like both of these SPs quite a bit overall so I was surprised to see a few of the BvP histories against each. There are some batters in this game that enjoy facing the opposing SP. Corbin’s last start came against the Mets as he struck out 8 over 5.2 innings and picked up the victory. He struck out 39 Mets batters in 31 innings against them last season but did manage to give up 7 HRs to them. Matz started opposite Corbin last time out and gave up 5 runs in just 3 innings. He has given up 5 HRs in 14.1 innings so far in 2020. Over the last couple of seasons, Matz has been a far better pitcher when he pitches at home so I do expect a bit of a bounceback in this spot.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Josh Harrison
GPP Note: Just 30 Ks over their last 5 games
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto
4-star plays: JD Davis
GPP Note: Conforto and Davis are a combined 14 for 42 with 8 HRs against Corbin.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Red Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
We Will update when we got an update on who Boston is starting and Vegas information.
TB 5-star plays: N
4-star plays: B
GPP Note: T
BOS 5-star plays: N
4-star plays: M
GPP Note: T
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-128)
Starting Pitchers:
Diamondbacks – Robbie Ray
Rockies – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 11.5 runs. Over the last 2 seasons, Ray has thrown 17.2 innings at Coors Field and has 23 Ks to go with 0 HRs allowed. I am a bit surprised at that HR number as he has allowed 6 HRs already this season overall. The Rockies roster has 14 HRs in 197 PAs against Ray in their careers. Gray was a better pitcher in 2019 when he pitched at home. His ERA was lower and his HR/allowed rate was lower as well. He’s started the season really solidly as opponents are hitting just .194 against him through 3 starts.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over their last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Matt Kemp
GPP Note: Blackmon is 14 for 25 over the last 7 games and is 20 for 46 against Ray.
San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Rundown:
This game has no Vegas info but SF has listed Logan Webb as tonight’s starter. McCullers was absolutely demolished in his last start and now faces a weak SF team but I have a hard time trusting him. Webb is a strong SP prospect who has been really solid so far this season. He could surprise here as the Astros offense isn’t rolling and they are very RH heavy (Webb has been far better against RHBs than LHBs at this point).
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Solano is 10 for 24 over his last 6 games.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Hitting just .207 as a team over their last 6 games.
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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (-146)
Starting Pitchers:
Mariners – Justin Dunn
Rangers – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Dunn has thrown just 7 innings over his 2 starts this season and has walked 7 batters compared to striking out 6. He gets a boost in a pitcher’s park but he is facing a lineup that has a couple of RHBs swinging it really well and he has been a bit of reverse splits pitcher to begin 2020. Gibson has looked pretty sharp aside from making a couple of mistakes against OAK but he still picked up 9 Ks in that game, despite the 2 HRs he allowed.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Hitting just .189 as a team over their last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: Todd Frazier
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Dunn has given up 3 HRs in 7 innings so far and an OPS of 1.032 to RHBs
Oakland Athletics (-130) @ Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers:
Athletics – Sean Manaea
Angels – Julio Teheran
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Manaea has looked really bad so far this season as he has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in 12.1 innings, across 3 starts. He’s only up to a max of 74 pitches thrown in a start so we could see him held to 80 or less. He gets the benefit of the fact that OAK just keeps winning games. Teheran threw just 52 pitches in his first start and took the loss against Seattle. Oakland bats should be somewhat popular hear.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last 7 games
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals – PPD DUE TO COVID
Starting Pitchers:
Pirates – NA
Cardinals – NA
Rundown:
Series PPD due to St Louis positive tests.
PIT 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
STL 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note:
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-170)
Starting Pitchers:
Padres – Garrett Richards ***UPDATE*** Padres have pushed Richards to Tuesday and will start Luis Perdomo
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total set at 8.5 runs. Richards has given up 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts, one being against this same Dodgers squad. He’s always had the upside in his arm so I do have some GPP interest in him. If he is able to limit the HR ball against LA then he could surprise us here as the Dodgers are hitting a combined .198 over the last 6 games. May has slowly increased his pitch count but I still have a hard time trusting Roberts as he could go to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. He just K’d 8 in 6 innings against SD during his last start as he allowed just 3 hits. *****Perdomo will start over Richards tonight***** Perdomo has been used as an RP so far this season but hasn’t thrown in a game for 9 days. I would guess we are looking at 60-70 pitches as his ceiling here.
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Tatis Jr is 10 for 23 with 6 HRs over the last 6 games
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Will Smith
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 6 games
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
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- Colorado Rockies: The Rockies at home, facing an LHP who allows a ton of baserunners. That sounds like a recipe for some big innings to me. This game has the highest total on the slate by at least 2 runs at this point. Going to be really tough to ignore it, especially if you are MME’ing this slate.
- Oakland Athletics: The A’s are rolling right now and now they face Teheran and an Angels bullpen that hasn’t looked very good. Teheran isn’t stretched out so he should only see maybe 4 innings and the Angels bullpen has gotten smacked around a bit this season. When stacking the A’s, make sure you mix and match as they get production from all over the lineup.
- Boston Red Sox: Here I go again, back on the Red Sox bandwagon against an LHP that they have had success against in the past. At some point, I should learn my lesson but I just can’t quit them. They have a team ISO of .275 against Yarbrough in their careers and that number goes up when you remove a few guys that won’t be in the lineup tonight.
MLB Dinger of the Day – Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
At this point, Blackmon should be chalky but I have a feeling he isn’t as highly owned as he should be because of the LvL on paper match-up. He has dominated Robbie Ray in his career and he is the hottest hitter in all of baseball. I understand variance happens but this is about as ripe of a match-up as we can ask for at this point.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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