Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
New York Islanders VS Washington Capitals
New York Islanders: New York came out and played their style of hockey holding Washington to 26 shots. Outside of this game Washington was still not shooting the puck basically at all before this tough matchup, so it looks like the Islanders deserve better odds, especially with Backstrom being out giving them an even better chance to go up 2-0. Anthony Beauvillier is the only player in my 3CAT (ixG60, iCF60, iSCF60) model with over a 30 rating. Brock Nelson at $5200 is an alright floor play but Washington’s lack of shot volume could hurt that floor.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson
Cash viable – Anthony Beauvillier, Brock Nelson
GPP Sleeper – Brock Nelson
Washington Capitals: If all you knew about the Washington Capitals was from the last 4 games, you would wonder how they are in the playoffs. Ovechkin and try and keep an eye on who gets the bump to WAS2 C wise cause they are going to be great value.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Alex Ovechkin, WAS2 C
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, WAS2 C
GPP Sleeper – WAS2C
Arizona Coyotes VS Colorado Avalanche
Arizona Coyotes: What happened to the Coyotes last game is what you would expect to happen to a fringe playoff team against arguably the best team in their conference. The good news is, that is a boost to the floor of all of Arizona’s cheap D, but outside of them, this is a GPP team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Jordan Oesterle, Niklas Hjalmarsson
GPP Sleeper – none
Mar 8, 2020; San Jose, California, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) during the second period against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado Avalanche: Colorado will once again be all over Arizona, the Coyotes do not have a capable answer to this Avalanche team. MacKinnon is as usual a great play, I do worry about Arizona playing deep and blocking a lot of shots but with Kuemper back there they should no be forced to do that every possession. Kadri is once again the only middle tier C worth playing in cash. Compher is also decent value.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon
4 star plays – Nazem Kadri, JT Compher
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri, JT Compher, Nikita Zadorov
GPP Sleeper – JT Compher
Montreal Canadiens VS Philadelphia Flyers
Montreal Canadiens: Philadelphia is such a well rounded team, each of their lines is solid and offers no great matchup to Montreal. Nick Suzuki is getting the go at MTL1 and PP1, I like it for his upside but I worry about how big of a % Brendan Gallagher takes of the shots when he is on the ice. Joel Armia has also been producing well when on the ice.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Nick Suzuki, Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia
Cash viable – Nick Suzuki, Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia
GPP Sleeper – Brendan Gallagher
Philadelphia Flyers: IT WOULD BE GREAT TO KNOW THE FOR SURE LINE COMBINATIONS OF A HEAVILY FAVORED TEAM BUT NOOOOOOOO! Sorry. My problem is that this team isn’t a heavy scoring one and that Carey Price looks like he is in a zone. They also are all priced for their floor it seems on DK leaving no real value. Couturier is a stud and should be treated as one and Sanheim is good value on FD
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Sean Couturier, Travis Sanheim (FD)
Cash viable – Sean Couturier, Travis Sanheim (FD)
GPP Sleeper – Kevin Hayes
Vancouver Canucks VS St. Louis Blues
Vancouver Canucks: I know they just scored 5 goals but St Louis is a good team on defense and their forecheck is good, Vancouver will have a tough time breaking through this team. Quinn Hughes has been a stud since the return and his value isn’t bad, he is who I would be looking to tonight for my Vancouver exposure.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Quinn Hughes
Cash viable – Quinn Hughes
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues: The Blues were the best team on home ice by a wide margin this year so that big edge being erased completely could spell trouble eventually. This is another team that lacks in fantasy upside, which is the problem with most of this slate honestly. David Perron is still good value and I like how cheap a mini stack is between him and O’Reilly.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly
Cash viable – David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly
GPP Sleeper – Ryan O’Reilly
Calgary Flames VS Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames: If Matthew Tkachuk misses that is a very big hit to an already mildly potent Flames offense. Dillon Dube has scored a goal in the last 3 games you have to think he sees a boost in ice time. Outside of that this game looks to be slow paced and that is not something I am looking to touch.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Dillon Dube
Cash viable – Dillon Dube
GPP Sleeper – Elias Lindholm
Dallas Stars: John Klingberg is good value relative to what we are given on this slate but that is all I want from Dallas.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – John Klingberg
Cash viable – John Klingberg
GPP Sleeper – John Klingberg
Goalies:
Darcy Kuemper: Unless he gets completely chased out of the building his value is bar none the best of the goalies on this slate even not being favored for the W.
Carter Hart: As I said last time, Montreal throws a lot of low danger shots at the net which is great for Hart’s floor and upside.